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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 25 items for :

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Pandemic Persistence Clouds the Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

Keywords:
pandemic; lockdowns; recovery; reopening; public health; REO; IMF staff calculation; nominal GDP; trading partner; world bank LAC estimate; hard currency; potential GDP
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Pandemic Persistence Clouds the Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

Keywords:
pandemic; lockdowns; recovery; reopening; public health; REO; IMF staff calculation; nominal GDP; trading partner; world bank LAC estimate; hard currency; potential GDP
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Pandemic Persistence Clouds the Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

Keywords:
pandemic; lockdowns; recovery; reopening; public health; REO; IMF staff calculation; nominal GDP; trading partner; world bank LAC estimate; hard currency; potential GDP; banking sector; fiscal policy; COVID-19; Debt restructuring; Securities markets; Caribbean; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence?
Cristian Alonso
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Siddharth Kothari
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Sidra Rehman
This paper considers the implications for developing countries of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor. It makes simple and plausible assumptions: the AI revolution can be modeled as an increase in productivity of a distinct type of capital that substitutes closely with labor; and the only fundamental difference between the advanced and developing country is the level of TFP. This set-up is minimalist, but the resulting conclusions are powerful: improvements in the productivity of “robots” drive divergence, as advanced countries differentially benefit from their initially higher robot intensity, driven by their endogenously higher wages and stock of complementary traditional capital. In addition, capital—if internationally mobile—is pulled “uphill”, resulting in a transitional GDP decline in the developing country. In an extended model where robots substitute only for unskilled labor, the terms of trade, and hence GDP, may decline permanently for the country relatively well-endowed in unskilled labor.
Keywords:
WP; production function; financial asset; Automation; robots; divergence; development; technological change; advanced economy; labor share; unskilled labor; developing economy; robot productivity; robot share; Robotics; Unskilled labor; Labor share; Skilled labor; Global; parameter e; unskilled-labor-saving technology
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impacts of Labor Market Institutions and Demographic Factors on Labor Markets in Latin America
Adriana D. Kugler
This paper documents recent labor market performance in the Latin American region. The paper shows that unemployment, informality, and inequality have been falling over the past two decades, though still remain high. By contrast, productivity has remained stubbornly low. The paper, then, turns to the potential impacts of various labor market institutions, including employment protection legislation (EPL), minimum wages (MW), payroll taxes, unemployment insurance (UI) and collective bargaining, as well as the impacts of demographic changes on labor market performance. The paper relies on evidence from carefully conducted studies based on micro-data for countries in the region and for other countries with similar income levels to draw conclusions on the impact of labor market institutions and demographic factors on unemployment, informality, inequality and productivity. The decreases in unemployment and informality can be partly explained by the reduced strictness of EPL and payroll taxes, but also by the increased shares of more educated and older workers. By contrast, the fall in inequality starting in 2002 can be explained by a combination of binding MW throughout most of the region and, to a lesser extent, by the introduction of UI systems in some countries and the role of unions in countries with moderate unionization rates. Falling inequality can also be explained by the fall in the returns to skill associated with increased share of more educated and older workers.
Keywords:
WP; unemployment rate; Gini coefficient; collective bargaining; wage inequality; inequality in Latin America; reservation wage; labor market institutions; labor demographics; inequality; Latin America; worker-employer match; skilled worker; worker morale; Employment; Wages; Employment protection; Labor markets; Unemployment; Central America; Africa
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Designing Labor Market Institutions in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evidence and Policy Options
Mr. Romain A Duval
and
Mr. Prakash Loungani
This paper discusses theoretical aspects and evidences related to designing labor market institutions in emerging market and developing economies. This note reviews the state of theory and evidence on the design of labor market institutions in a developing economy context and then reviews its consistency with actual labor market advice in a selected set of emerging and developing economies. The focus is mainly on three broad sets of institutions that matter for both workers’ protection and labor market efficiency: employment protection, unemployment insurance and social assistance, minimum wages and collective bargaining. Text mining techniques are used to identify IMF recommendations in these areas in Article IV Reports for 30 emerging and frontier economies over 2005–2016. This note has provided a critical review of the literature on the design of labor market institutions in emerging and developing market economies, and benchmarked the advice featured in IMF recommendations for 30 emerging market and frontier economies against the tentative conclusions from the literature.
Keywords:
SDN; collective bargaining; unemployment insurance; severance pay; developing economy; UI system; Labor Market Institutions; Employment Protection; Unemployment Benefits; Social Assistance; Cash Transfers; Minimum Wage; monopsony power; firm level; income group; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Minimum wages; Labor markets; Africa; risk pooling; wage inequality
Cover IMF Working Papers
More Work to Do? Taking Stock of Latin American Labor Markets
Mr. Antonio David
,
Frederic Lambert
, and
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
We analyze the performance of labor markets in Latin America since the late 1990s. Strong GDP growth during the commodity boom period led to important gains in employment and a fall in the unemployment rate as labor demand outpaced an increasing labor supply. We emphasize the role of informality in the dynamics of labor markets in Latin America. A re-examination of Okun’s law shows that informality dampens changes in unemployment accompanying output fluctuations. Moreover, we present some evidence that countries with higher redundancy costs and cumbersome dismissal regulations, exhibit “excess” informality over and above what would be expected based on their income and educational levels. Labor market reforms could thus contribute to reducing informality and increasing the responsiveness of labor markets to output growth. However, looking at selected case studies of reforms using the synthetic control method, we find mixed results in terms of labor market outcomes.
Keywords:
WP; unemployment rate; minimum wage; collective bargaining; employment growth; financial crisis; participation rate; Labor Markets; Latin America; Okun’s Law; Informality; institutions data; wage council; low income; unemployment margin; labor market slack; growth rate; wage pressure; terms of trade; indicators in Latin America; employment protection regime; labor markets in Latin America; Unemployment; Labor market institutions; Employment; South America; Central America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2011 Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This 2011 Article IV Consultation—Selected Issues paper focuses on estimating potential output and the output gap and spillovers from agriculture in the case of Uruguay. It introduces additional economic information and theory to estimate potential output, shedding some light on the discussion of current monetary and fiscal policies. The objective is to take advantage of economic data to disentangle the most recent economic performance by introducing multivariate techniques. The paper also presents an overview of the labor market and pension system of Uruguay.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uruguay; dollarization level; pension system; debt dollarization; employment flexibility; Philips curve; wage indexation; Potential output; Output gap; Wages; Dollarization; Real wages; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean
Laurence M. Ball
,
Mr. Nicolas de Roux Uribe
, and
Mr. Marc Hofstetter
JEL Cl This study constructs a new data set on unemployment rates in Latin America and the Caribbean and then explores the determinants of unemployment. We compare different countries, finding that unemployment is influenced by the size of the rural population and that the effects of government regulations are generally weak. We also examine large, persistent increases in unemployment over time, finding that they are caused by contractions in aggregate demand. These demand contractions result from either disinflationary monetary policy or the defense of an exchange - rate peg in the face of capital flight. Our evidence supports hysteresis theories in which short - run changes in unemployment influence the natural rate.
Keywords:
WP; country; capital flight; NICs; long-run unemployment; time series; Unemployment; Latin America; Hysteresis; Monetary Policy; Disinflation; labor-market variable; time effect; IADB data; natural rate of unemployment; exchange rate rigidity; core period; standard deviation; worsening capital flight; further capital flight; Unemployment rate; Capital outflows; Social security contributions; Labor markets; Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles
Miss Zhanwei Z. Yue
and
Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza
Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital, while sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad-noc default costs. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing; default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes; and default on public and private obligations occurs simultaneously. The model explains several features of cyclical dynamics around deraults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments.
Keywords:
WP; debt ratio; working capital; Sovereign default; business cycles; country risk; external debt; default event; default frequency; default probability; credit market; transmission mechanism; result default; default incentive; country default; sensitivity analysis; utility function; default punishment; Total factor productivity; Labor supply; Debt default; Eastern Europe; Western Hemisphere; Western Europe; Africa