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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 45 items for :

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  • Crisis management x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach
Tsendsuren Batsuuri
,
Shan He
,
Ruofei Hu
,
Jonathan Leslie
, and
Flora Lutz
This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.
Keywords:
Early warning systems; IMF Lending; Machine Learning; IMF arrangement; ML model; machine learning approach; state-of-the-art machine learning; machine learning model; Emergency assistance; Data processing; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Pandemic Persistence Clouds the Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

Keywords:
pandemic; lockdowns; recovery; reopening; public health; REO; IMF staff calculation; nominal GDP; trading partner; world bank LAC estimate; hard currency; potential GDP
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Pandemic Persistence Clouds the Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

Keywords:
pandemic; lockdowns; recovery; reopening; public health; REO; IMF staff calculation; nominal GDP; trading partner; world bank LAC estimate; hard currency; potential GDP
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Western Hemisphere
Pandemic Persistence Clouds the Recovery
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The pandemic continues to spread in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), but economic activity is picking up. After a deep contraction in April, activity started recovering in May, as lockdowns were gradually eased, consumers and firms adapted to social distancing, some countries introduced sizable policy support, and global activity strengthened.

Keywords:
pandemic; lockdowns; recovery; reopening; public health; REO; IMF staff calculation; nominal GDP; trading partner; world bank LAC estimate; hard currency; potential GDP; banking sector; fiscal policy; COVID-19; Debt restructuring; Securities markets; Caribbean; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
News-based Sentiment Indicators
Chengyu Huang
,
Sean Simpson
,
Daria Ulybina
, and
Agustin Roitman
We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like “fear”, “risk”, “hedging”, “opinion”, and, “crisis”, as well as “positive” and “negative” sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess the performance of our sentiment indices as “news-based” early warning indicators (EWIs) for financial crises. We find that sentiment indices spike and/or trend up ahead of financial crises.
Keywords:
WP; sentiment index; crisis sentiment; seed words; sentiment indices; term cluster; word vector representation; word-vector models; early warning indicators; risk; crisis; sentiment; financial crises; vector representation; Early warning systems; Hedging; Banking crises; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Long-Term Returns in Distressed Sovereign Bond Markets: How Did Investors Fare?
Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky
and
Julian Schumacher
Sovereign debt restructurings are perceived as inflicting large losses to bondholders. However, many bonds feature high coupons and often exhibit strong post-crisis recoveries. To account for these aspects, we analyze the long-term returns of sovereign bonds during 32 crises since 1998, taking into account losses from bond exchanges as well as profits before and after such events. We show that the average excess return over risk-free rates in crises with debt restructuring is not significantly lower than the return on bonds in crises without restructuring. Returns differ considerably depending on the investment strategy: Investors who sell during crises fare much worse than buy-and-hold investors or investors entering the market upon signs of distress
Keywords:
WP; excess return; crisis episode; debt crisis; distress investor; net present value; public debt; sovereign risk; sovereign default; bond restructuring; period return; return index; investor type; long-term return; investment strategy; longer-term return; market value; returns in sovereign bond bond market; bond investor; buy-and-hold investor; Bonds; Sovereign bonds; Debt restructuring; Crisis resolution; Global
Cover Global Financial Stability Report, October 2018
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2018
A Decade after the Global Financial Crisis: Are We Safer?
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

In the 10 years since the global financial crisis, regulatory frameworks have been enhanced and the banking system has become stronger, but new vulnerabilities have emerged, and the resilience of the global financial system has yet to be tested.

Keywords:
GFSR; financial condition; market liquidity; emerging market economy; IMF executive board discussion summary; risk; a number of emerging market economies; debt vulnerability; foreign exchange; inflation surprise; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial sector stability; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Bank resolution framework; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Middle East; financial system; commercial paper; FSAP risk analysis finding; volatility Index; U.S. dollar; international community; Systemic risk; Caribbean
Cover Prevention and Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises
Prevention and Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises
Ms. Julianne Ams
,
Mr. Tamon Asonuma
,
Mr. Wolfgang Bergthaler
,
Ms. Chanda M DeLong
,
Ms. Nouria El Mehdi
,
Mr. Mark J Flanagan
,
Mr. Sean Hagan
,
Ms. Yan Liu
,
Charlotte J. Lundgren
,
Mr. Martin Mühleisen
,
Alex Pienkowski
,
Mr. Gustavo Pinto
, and
Mr. Eric Robert

Abstract

“The IMF’s Role in the Prevention and Resolution of Sovereign Debt Crises” provides a guided narrative to the IMF’s policy papers on sovereign debt produced over the last 40 years. The papers are divided into chapters, tracking four historical phases: the 1980s debt crisis; the Mexican crisis and the design of policies to ensure adequate private sector involvement (“creditor bail-in”); the Argentine crisis and the search for a durable crisis resolution framework; and finally, the global financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis, and their aftermaths.

Keywords:
SLIPS; debt; crisis; financing; fund; IMF support; IMF policy response; policy development; IMF responsibility; crisis resolution role; fund support; Global; Eastern Europe; Sovereign debt restructuring; Sovereign bonds; Arrears; Commercial banks; fund policy; IMF's policy; IMF approval
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Financial Integration and Funding Risks: Bank-Level Evidence from Latin America
Mr. Luis Catão
,
Valeriya Dinger
, and
Daniel Marcel te Kaat
Using a sample of over 700 banks in Latin America, we show that international financial liberalization lowers bank capital ratios and increases the shares of short-term funding. Following liberalization, large banks substitute interbank borrowing for equity and long-term funding, whereas small banks increase the proportions of retail funding in their liabilities, which have been particularly vulnerable to flight-to-quality during periods of financial distress in much of Latin America. We also find evidence that riskier bank funding in the aftermath of financial liberalizations is exacerbated by asymmetric information, which rises on geographical distance and the opacity of balance sheets.
Keywords:
WP; funding structure; liberalization index; financial liberalization; funding ratio; bank control; funding decision; Bank Capital Structure; International Capital Flows; bank funding; funding risk; bank size; Capital account; Financial integration; Bank deposits; Deposit insurance; Global; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial Safety Nets- Technical Note
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses the financial crisis management and crisis preparedness framework of Argentina. Although Argentina has a well-developed financial safety net that has provided timely support to stressed institutions, the system could be further strengthened. Although the Banco Central de la República de Argentina (BCRA) facilities have not been tested, they are well-designed to manage a major banking liquidity crisis. The BCRA should work with other supervisors to monitor potential risks outside its regulatory perimeter. The BCRA approach to supervision is risk-based and focuses on early supervisory action to address deficiencies, but the prompt correction framework could be enhanced.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCRA charter; address BCRA staff liability; la Nación Argentina; resolution process; BCRA exercises macro; BCRA personnel bylaw; CAMELBIG rating; recovery and resolution plans; BCRA authority; Banco Suquía; capital base; BCRA approach; bank assistance; Bank resolution framework; Systemic crises; Bridge bank; Deposit insurance; Bank resolution; Africa; Global