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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Technical Assistance Report-Report of the Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics (April 17–28, 2017)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Statistics and Census Institute (INDEC), a technical assistance mission on external sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires during April 17–28, 2017. This was a follow up to the November 2016 mission that evaluated the ESS methodology, information sources, and dissemination policy and made recommendations to improve quality, adapt the production of ESS to the methodology provided by the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6), and support the quarterly compilation and dissemination of the International Investment Position (IIP) in accordance with the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The mission reviewed the implementation status of the tasks identified in the action plan prepared by the November 2016 mission; assisted compilers in preparing quarterly ESS in accordance with BPM6 guidelines for the next quarterly publication; and provided practical advice on the methodology to be used.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCRA; DNCI; BPM6; mission; current account; debt survey; IIP quarterly; balance of payments goods account; dissemination policy; BCRA chart; DNCI staff; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; International investment position; Private debt
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Technical Assistance Report-Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics (November 14-25, 2016)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), a technical-assistance mission on external-sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires on November 14–25, 2016. Currently, INDEC’s National Directorate for International Accounts (DNCI) compiles and disseminates ESS following the guidelines of the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. The mission reviewed the ESS methodology, data sources, and dissemination policy in order to help enhance its quality and to assist compilers in migrating the methodology to the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The main data sources used to compile the current account and the capital account (excluding investment income, which is compiled along with the financial account and the IIP) are customs records, corporate surveys, the international-tourism survey, accounting information available to the public, administrative records, and information concerning the exchange balance disseminated by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). The mission found data sources and compilation procedures to be sound. Although the mission identified improvements that could add to the quality of certain estimates, the balances of the current and capital accounts are expected to remain substantially unchanged.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCRA; investment; DNCI; corporation; enterprise; service-corporation survey; investment enterprise; land passenger-transport corporation; BCRA staff; exchange balance; aggregate data; Business enterprises; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; Foreign direct investment; International investment position
Cover Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
An IEO Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report examines whether the IMF has effectively leveraged an important asset: data. It finds that in general, the IMF has been able to rely on a large amount of data of acceptable quality, and that data provision from member countries has improved markedly over time. Nonetheless, problems with data or data practices have, at times, adversely affected the IMF’s surveillance and lending activities. The roots of data problems are diverse, ranging from problems due to member countries’ capacity constraints or reluctance to share sensitive data to internal issues such as lack of appropriate staff incentives, institutional rigidities, and long-standing work practices. Efforts to tackle these problems are piecemeal, the report finds, without a clear comprehensive strategy that recognizes data as an institutional strategic asset, not just a consumption good for economists. The report makes a number of recommendations that could promote greater progress in this regard.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; data; data management; evaluation; data practice; IMF data provision; model data management guideline; data management framework; data deficiency; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Data dissemination; Financial statistics; Financial statements; Global; data challenge; data management initiative; evaluation team; IMF document; Data collection
Cover IMF Working Papers
Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies
Mr. Philip Liu
,
Rafael Romeu
, and
Mr. Troy D Matheson
Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based the assessment of current and future economic conditions. These assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are released infrequently with a (sometimes substantial) lag. This paper evaluates "nowcasts" and forecasts of real GDP growth using five alternative models for ten Latin American countries. The results indicate that the flow of monthly data helps to improve forecast accuracy, and the dynamic factor model consistently produces more accurate nowcasts and forecasts relative to other model specifications, across most of the countries we consider.
Keywords:
WP
Cover IMF Working Papers
In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina
Mr. Alejandro Simone
Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is proposed and adapted for Argentina. Three coincident indicators could be constructed, but no reliable leading indicator could be found. From an econometric standpoint, the coincident indicators produce satisfactory point estimates of real GDP. The series that enter the indicator are broadly consistent with what many economists believe is the main source of real GDP fluctuations in Argentina: shocks to the capital account of the balance of payments. This enhances the confidence in the econometric results.
Keywords:
WP; time series; absolute deviation; growth rate; estimation result; Argentina; leading indicators; candidate series; model construction mechanism; point estimate; unrestricted model; Cyclical indicators; Business cycles; Econometric models