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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 17 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
,
Mr. Emanuele Baldacci
, and
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995-2010. The paper extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects from advanced to emerging economies by analyzing transmission of shocks across emerging markets. After controlling for the impact of global factors, we find strong evidence of spillovers from both sovereign spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals in neighboring emerging economies. In addition to the geographical proximity, the channels of spatial transmission include trade and financial linkages. The results of the paper highlight the importance of accounting not only for spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets, but also across emerging markets when analyzing sovereign spreads.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle; debt; EM; sovereign spreads; emerging market; spillovers; spatial econometrics; Ols estimation; stripped bond; EM fundamentals; GDP ratio; EM sovereign; correlation matrix; estimation result; intra-EM spillover; trade linkage; Spatial models; Inflation; Business cycles; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Influence of “Big Brothers: ” How Important are Regional Factors for Uruguay?
Mr. Sebastian Sosa
This paper examines the role played by regional factors in Uruguay, identifies the sources and transmission mechanisms of shocks stemming from the region, and assesses how vulnerable Uruguay is to a potential crisis in the region. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that shocks from Argentina-which account for about 20 percent of Uruguayan output fluctuations-have large and rapid effects. This is mainly due to the existence of idiosyncratic real and financial linkages between Uruguay and Argentina, which also explain the very high correlation between their business cycles. The analysis of previous crises in the region suggests that despite the importance of these strong linkages, and despite the fact the two deepest crises in recent Uruguayan history followed crises in Argentina, Uruguay is now clearly less vulnerable to financial contagion from the region.
Keywords:
WP; Uruguay; Argentina; Brazil; external shock
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper provides a real exchange rate and competitiveness assessment for Uruguay. It looks at the recent developments in key external competitiveness indicators such as the bilateral real effective exchange rates, export volumes, export market shares, export unit values, unit labor costs as well as foreign direct investment performance. The paper pursues an assessment of the real exchange rate following a broad-based strategy of applying four different approaches, including the purchasing power parity approach, the macroeconomic balance approach, the external sustainability approach, and the equilibrium real exchange rate approach.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uruguay; exchange rate; loan; dynamic provisions; loan loss; impulse response; GDP growth; output fluctuation; default history; CA balance; trade dependency; Commodity prices; Real exchange rates; Commodity price shocks; Loans; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America
Mr. Ruy Lama
This paper evaluates what type of models can account for the recent episodes of output drops in Latin America. I develop an open economy version of the business cycle accounting methodology (Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan, 2007) in which output fluctuations are decomposed into four sources: total factor productivity (TFP), a labor wedge, a capital wedge, and a bond wedge. The paper shows that the most promising models are the ones that induce fluctuations of TFP and the labor wedge. On the other hand, models of fnancial frictions that translate into a bond or capital wedge are not successful in explaining output drops in Latin America. The paper also discusses the implications of these results for policy analysis using alternative DSGE models.
Keywords:
WP; open economy; labor wedge; working capital
Cover Finance & Development
Finances & Développement, décembre 2007
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Ce numéro, intitulé « Gouvernance mondiale : qui donne le ton ? », se penche sur les enjeux — en matière de finances, de santé, d'environnement et de commerce — auxquels la communauté internationale est confrontée au XXIe siècle, et demande si le système de gouvernance mondiale actuel est équipé pour y faire face. L'article principal allègue que le système qui a servi de modèle pour la plus grande partie du XXe siècle est obsolète, et examine ce qu'il faut faire pour le renforcer. Les autres articles sur ce thème abordent la récente crise sur le marché américain des subprimes, les différences entre les crises financières des XIXe et XXe siècles et ce que l'avenir nous prépare, la nécessité d'un système plus robuste pour le commerce multilatéral, et la gestion des menaces mondiales qui pèsent sur la santé. La rubrique « Paroles d'économistes » est consacrée à Michael Kremer ; « Pleins feux » décrit l'évolution de la composition de l'aide au développement ; la rubrique « Gros plan » porte sur les Émirats arabes unis ; et « Entre nous » est consacré à l'impact de la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires. Les autres articles de cette édition portent sur le développement en Afrique et sur la reconstruction de données rétrospectives en Amérique latine.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; DAC CRS database; country; DAC Creditor Reporting System; governance system
Cover Finance & Development
Finanzas & Desarrollo, diciembre de 2007
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
El gobierno internacional: ¿Quién está a cargo? Examina los desafíos -financieros, de la salud, el medio ambiente y el comercio- que enfrenta la comunidad internacional en el siglo XXI y se pregunta si el actual sistema de gobernanza internacional estará equipado para atenderlos. En el artículo principal se afirma que el régimen que sirvió de modelo para una gran parte del siglo XX está desactualizado y se explora la necesidad de fortalecerlo. En otros artículos sobre el mismo tema se analiza la reciente crisis del mercado de hipotecas de alto riesgo de Estados Unidos, las diferencias entre las crisis financieras del siglo XIX y el siglo XX y la forma que adoptarán las crisis del futuro, la necesidad de un sistema de comercio multilateral más sólido y la manera de abordar las amenazas para la salud mundial. En la sección "Gente del mundo de la economía" se traza una semblanza de Michael Kremer; "Bajo la lupa" ilustra el nuevo panorama de la ayuda; la sección "Panorama nacional" se centra en los Emiratos Árabes Unidos; y en "Hablando claro" se analiza el impacto del alto precio de los alimentos. En este número también se examina el desarrollo en África y la "retroproyección" de los datos correspondientes a América Latina.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; DAC CRS database; country; DAC Creditor Reporting System; governance system
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, December 2007
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Global Governance: Who's in Charge?' examines the challenges—financial, health, environmental, and trade—facing the international community in the 21st century and asks whether today';s system of global governance is equipped to cope with them. The lead article asserts that the system that served as a model for much of the 20th century is out of date, and it explores what needs to be done to strengthen it. Other articles on this theme look at the recent U.S. subprime market crisis, the differences between financial crises of the 19th and 20th centuries and what future crises will look like, the need for a stronger system of multilateral trade, and how global health threats can be handled. 'People in Economics' profiles Michael Kremer; 'Picture This' describes the changing aid landscape; 'Country Focus' spotlights the United Arab Emirates; and 'Straight Talk' examines the impact of high food prices. Also in this issue, articles examine development in Africa, and 'backcasting' data in Latin America.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; DAC CRS database; country; DAC Creditor Reporting System; governance system; a number of health expert; food price; Mortgages; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Business cycles; Communicable diseases; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey
Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making institutions. The models are especially useful when the firms analyzed do not have publicly traded securities or secondary market prices are unreliable because of low liquidity.
Keywords:
WP; default probability; credit scoring
Cover IMF Working Papers
Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles
Mr. Allan Timmermann
,
Mr. Luis Catão
, and
Mr. Marco Aiolfi
This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; standard deviation; economic activity; government spending; Business Cycles; Factor Models; Latin America; business cycle volatility; shortening business cycle length; volatility in Latin America; time series; backcasted business cycle; density function; business cycle driver; Terms of trade; Economic recession; Global; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Survey
Calendario
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Caribbean-IMF seminar; debt; Rodrigo de Rato