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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications
Florian Schuster
,
Marwa Alnasaa
,
Lahcen Bounader
,
Il Jung
,
Jeta Menkulasi
, and
Joana da Mota
Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending needs for development and transition to a greener economy. This paper aims to place the current debt landscape in a historical context and investigate the drivers of debt surges, to what degree they result in a crisis as well as examine post-surge debt trajectories and under what conditions debt follows a non-declining path. We find that fiscal policy and stock-flow adjustments play important roles in debt dynamics with the valuation effects arising from currency depreciation explaining more than half of stock flow adjustments in LICs. Debt surges are estimated to result in a financial crisis with a probability of 11–20 percent and spending-driven fiscal expansions during debt surges tend to result in a high probability of non-declining debt path.
Keywords:
Public debt; debt surges; financial crisis; stock-flow adjustment; exchange rate depreciation; fiscal expansion; debt surge; surge episode; surge attribute; post debt path; surge debt trajectory; Contingent liabilities; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographic Changes in Latin America: The Good, the Bad and …
Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
,
Marco A Espinosa-Vega
, and
Diego Wachs
The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico), where public spending pressures are expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to demographic trends and rising healthcare costs. We simulate alternative pension reforms, including the transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension system and the fiscal burden of a minimum guaranteed pension under the latter. We also analyze public healthcare outlays in the LAC5, which is likewise expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to aging and the so-called excess cost growth factor of healthcare services, showing that curbing the evolution of the latter (e.g., through enhanced competition in the healthcare sector) could aid in containing spending pressures. Despite its simplicity, the methodology yields projections that compare well with other approaches. It therefore provides a good benchmark for assessing alternative reform scenarios, particularly in data-constrained countries.
Keywords:
WP; inflation rate; defined contribution; DC system; replacement rate; DB system; pension system; public pension spending; public healthcare spending; aging; pension system reforms; contribution rate; cash flow; Pension spending; Pensions; Retirement; Western Hemisphere