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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 21 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Social Security and Public Pensions x
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Cover Policy Papers
Interim Review of The Adequacy of The Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Precautionary balances are a key element of the Fund’s multilayered framework to mitigate financial risks. Overall financial risks remain elevated but have not increased significantly since the last review. Staff proposes to leave the medium-term target of SDR 25 billion, and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion, unchanged at this time. With the projected increase in lending income, the pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate relative to the medium-term indicative target. The paper also reviews policy factors discussed in recent Board meetings that affect the level and accumulation of reserves.
Keywords:
risk management framework; transparency policy; D. financial risks; income volatility; totaling SDR; Income; Credit; Credit risk; Pension spending; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
replacement rate; contribution rate; loan growth; price-earnings ratio; household income; household loan demand; Pension spending; Personal income tax; Income; Foreign exchange intervention; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nicaragua: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Nicaragua’s social security system, which is projected to run out of liquid reserves by 2019, several years earlier than anticipated. To avoid burdening the budget, reforms to the system are urgently needed. A deep actuarial, economic, and operational analysis is needed to design a comprehensive reform program. Such a program must ensure that the defined-benefit, pay-as-you-go system can sustain itself for another generation of workers and that improved health care benefits can be maintained. A politically acceptable, pragmatic solution appears within reach. However, the authorities should act quickly to avoid a costly bailout of the system.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Nicaragua; free zone; commodity; transfer pricing; CPS deficit; export tax free zones; commodity export; CPS balance; trade shock; commodity TP regulation; Pension spending; Pensions; Climate change; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographic Changes in Latin America: The Good, the Bad and …
Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
,
Marco A Espinosa-Vega
, and
Diego Wachs
The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico), where public spending pressures are expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to demographic trends and rising healthcare costs. We simulate alternative pension reforms, including the transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension system and the fiscal burden of a minimum guaranteed pension under the latter. We also analyze public healthcare outlays in the LAC5, which is likewise expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to aging and the so-called excess cost growth factor of healthcare services, showing that curbing the evolution of the latter (e.g., through enhanced competition in the healthcare sector) could aid in containing spending pressures. Despite its simplicity, the methodology yields projections that compare well with other approaches. It therefore provides a good benchmark for assessing alternative reform scenarios, particularly in data-constrained countries.
Keywords:
WP; inflation rate; defined contribution; DC system; replacement rate; DB system; pension system; public pension spending; public healthcare spending; aging; pension system reforms; contribution rate; cash flow; Pension spending; Pensions; Retirement; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
An inherited legacy of imbalances. Upon taking office in December last year, Argentina’s new government faced pervasive macroeconomic imbalances, microeconomic distortions, and a weakened institutional framework. These encompassed unsustainably high consumption levels, historically low levels of investment, and large fiscal deficits financed by money creation, which led to high inflation. Distortions at the micro level included an extensive network of administrative controls (for example, trade barriers, foreign exchange restrictions, and price controls) and a business environment that eroded competitiveness and undermined medium-term growth. There was also an important weakening of the institutional framework for economic policymaking, perhaps most evident in the loss of credibility of the national statistics agency.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; peso bond; GDP; government; FX inflow; utilities tariff rollback; IFC portfolio; growth projection; Inflation; Tariffs; Pension spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2011 Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This 2011 Article IV Consultation—Selected Issues paper focuses on estimating potential output and the output gap and spillovers from agriculture in the case of Uruguay. It introduces additional economic information and theory to estimate potential output, shedding some light on the discussion of current monetary and fiscal policies. The objective is to take advantage of economic data to disentangle the most recent economic performance by introducing multivariate techniques. The paper also presents an overview of the labor market and pension system of Uruguay.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uruguay; dollarization level; pension system; debt dollarization; employment flexibility; Philips curve; wage indexation; Potential output; Output gap; Wages; Dollarization; Real wages; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Market Discipline and Conflicts of Interest Between Banks and Pension Funds
Mr. Adolfo Barajas
and
Mr. Mario Catalan
We study the behavior of private pension funds as large depositors in a banking system. Using panel data analysis, we examine whether, and if so how, pension funds influence market discipline in Argentina in the period 1998-2001. We find evidence that pension funds exert market discipline and this discipline gets stronger as the share of pension fund deposits in a bank rises. However, conflicts of interest undermine the disciplining role of pension funds. Specifically, pension funds allocate deposits to banks with weak fundamentals that own pension fund management companies. We conclude that forbidding banks' ownership of companies involved in pension fund management can enhance market discipline.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; pension fund deposit; capitalization ratio; conflicts of interest; institutional investors; pension funds; banks; market discipline; pension fund; bank deposit; CAMEL-type bank-specific; unconnected bank; deposit growth; bank fundamental; Pension spending; Bank deposits; Banking crises; Commercial banks; Deposit rates; Global; Eastern Europe; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pension Privatization and Country Risk
Mr. Alfredo Cuevas
,
Ms. Maria Gonzalez
,
Arnoldo López-Marmolejo
, and
Davide Lombardo
This paper explores how privatizing a pension system can affect sovereign credit risk. For this purpose, it analyzes the importance that rating agencies give to implicit pension debt (IPD) in their assessments of sovereign creditworthiness. We find that rating agencies generally do not seem to give much weight to IPD, focusing instead on explicit public debt. However, by channeling pension contributions away from the government and creating a deficit of resources to cover the current pension liabilities during the reform's transition period, a pension privatization reform may transform IPD into explicit public debt, adversely affecting a sovereign's perceived creditworthiness, thus increasing its risk premium. In this light, accompanying pension reform with efforts to offset its transition costs through fiscal adjustment would help preserve a country's credit rating.
Keywords:
WP; debt; implicit pension debt; privatization; pension privatization; credit rating
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pension Reform and Macroeconomic Stability in Latin America
Mr. Jorge Roldos
This paper reviews macroeconomic aspects of pension reforms in Latin America, focusing on financial market stability and fiscal sustainability. Concentration of pension fund portfolios in government bonds remains high, and the lack of new investment alternatives has distorted asset prices. Countries have gradually liberalized investments abroad, but remain wary of the impact on foreign currency markets. The fiscal costs of the transition to funded systems have been higher than expected, and have contributed to high debt levels. The paper highlights the importance of coordinating changes in portfolio limits with debt management policies and measures to develop securities markets.
Keywords:
WP; investment; market; deficit; Chile; GDP
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: Financial System Stability Assessment, including Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on the following topics: Banking Supervision and Payment Systems
International Monetary Fund
Improved liquidity and capital adequacy have increased the Uruguayan banking system’s capacity to withstand shocks. However, macroeconomic and financial risks remain owing to the high level of government debt, guarantees to state banks, high dollarization, and a high share of nonresident deposits. The insurance sector also suffered from the crisis, but the pension system weathered it relatively well. The authorities implemented a stabilization program following the crisis. Capital markets in Uruguay are small and illiquid. The proposed amendments are improving the autonomy and accountability of banks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; banking system; loan; asset; banking system assets; Uruguay; Banco de la República Oriental del Uruguay; foreign currency; Superintendencia de Bancos e Instituciones Financieras; Banco Hipotecario de Uruguay; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Pension spending; State-owned banks