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Mr. Alun H. Thomas
This chapter discusses various aspects of financial crises and emerging market trade. The current global financial crisis and the sharp reduction in trade flows have raised questions about the extent to which access to capital affects the ability of companies to produce and sell exports and to buy imports. The results presented in this chapter imply that financial conditions play a significant, however, not dominant role in stimulating trade volumes among emerging market countries. Estimates presented in this paper suggest that the combination of zero net private capital flows to emerging markets and a domestic banking crisis could lower import volume growth by between 5 and 6 percent on impact, with a slightly lower effect on export volumes. It is also important to recognize that trade finance is not the only form of credit with implications for trade volumes. Conditions in credit markets more generally, including for working capital and long-term investment financing also have an impact on international trade, including through their impact on industrial production more generally. As such, it is probably sensible for policymakers to support credit flows in general rather than to focus specifically on increasing trade finance.
International Monetary Fund
In response to the dearth of information on trade finance, the Fund has undertaken a survey of major advanced country and emerging market banks. The results suggest that the cost of trade finance is rising globally, but that provision is falling in emerging markets while staying stable in advanced countries, possibly reflecting structural differences in markets.
Mr. Jian-Ye Wang
and
Mr. Márcio Valério Ronci

Abstract

Trade finance has long been an important component of international financial flows. Firms in emerging market economies, in particular, rely heavily on bank-financed trade credits to support their export and import activities. This book examines why and how much trade finance flows decline during financial crises, with case studies of several Asian and Latin American countries. The authors draw from the analysis to present options for mitigating trade finance declines in the event of future crises.

Mr. Márcio Valério Ronci
This paper assesses the effect of constrained trade finance on trade flows in countries undergoing financial and balance of payments crises. Most of the countries that had a major crisis had a significant trade contraction, while trade-related finance declined sharply. However, trade may also be affected by other variables such as world demand, domestic demand, banking crises, changes in export and import prices, and real exchange rate depreciation. To estimate the effect of constrained trade finance on trade flows, we estimate import and export volume equations including explicitly trade financing as an explanatory variable in addition to the usual variables such as relative prices and income. We conclude that constrained trade finance is a factor in explaining both export and import volumes in the short-run. A fall in external trade finance explains a relatively small part of the trade loss during crises, while a fall in trade financing in connection with domestic banking crisis can lead to a substantial loss of trade.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
David Burton, a U.K. national who has worked at the IMF since 1981, took over as Director of the Asia and Pacific Department in late 2002. Laura Wallace spoke with him about the dramatic changes that are now shaping the region, including the increasing economic prominence of China, deepening regional integration, a bigger emphasis on transparency, and the recent massive buildup of foreign exchange reserves.