Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 91 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover Policy Papers
Initial Considerations For The Review Of Charges And The Surcharge Policy
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
On October 11, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of Charges and the Surcharge Policy. The review is part of a broader ongoing effort to ensure that the IMF’s lending policies remain fit for purpose to meet the evolving needs of the membership. Charges and surcharges are important elements of the IMF’s cooperative lending and risk-management framework, where all members contribute and all can benefit from support when needed. Together, they cover lending intermediation expenses, help accumulate reserves to protect against financial risks, and provide incentives for prudent and temporary borrowing. This provides a strong financial foundation that allows the IMF to extend vital balance of payments support on affordable terms to member countries when they need it most.



Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment and high global interest rates, the Executive Board reached consensus on a comprehensive package of reforms that substantially reduces the cost of borrowing for members while safeguarding the IMF's financial capacity to support countries in need. The approved measures will lower IMF borrowing costs by about US$1.2 billion annually or reduce payments on the margin of the rate of charge as well as surcharges on average by 36 percent. The number of countries subject to surcharges in fiscal year 2026 is expected to fall from 20 to 13.



Key reforms include a reduction in the margin for the rate of charge, an increase in the threshold for level-based surcharges, a reduction in rate for time-based surcharges, an alignment of thresholds for commitment fees with annual and cumulative access limits for GRA lending facilities, and institution of regular reviews of surcharges.



The series of three papers informed the Executive Board’s first and second informal engagements (July and September 2024) and the formal meeting (October 2024) on this review.
Keywords:
General Resources Account; Charges; Margin for the basic rate of charge; Surcharges; Commitment Fees; Precautionary Balances; Income; multilayered framework; fund arrangement; surcharge rate; intermediation cost; fund's liquidity; borrowing cost; Credit; SDR interest rate; Balance of payments need; Credit risk; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Since completion of the fourth review, key program targets were missed reflecting the historic drought along with policy slippages. Against the backdrop of high inflation and rising balance of payments pressures, agreement was reached on a new policy package centered on rebuilding reserves and enhancing fiscal order. Continued strong policy implementation will be critical in the period ahead to safeguard stability and strengthen medium-term sustainability. Risks remain elevated, reflecting an increasingly fragile economic and social situation, rising program implementation difficulties, and election-related uncertainties. In addition, risks could intensify should the projected improvements in climate conditions not materialize, or external conditions worsen. Moreover, even with steadfast implementation, elements of the new policy package may still need to be recalibrated to secure the intended results.
Keywords:
recovery objective; electricity price; staff appraisal; waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria; production cost estimate; policy package; Exchange restrictions; Multiple currency practices; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review
Keywords:
FX policy framework; credit policy; monetary policy transmission; deficit target; expenditure growth; Inflation; Government debt management; Energy subsidies; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Debt Dynamics in Emerging and Developing Economies: Is R-G a Red Herring?
Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
,
Juliana Gamboa-Arbelaez
, and
Yuan Xiang
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, debt levels in emerging and developing economies have surged raising concerns about fiscal sustainability. Historically, negative interest-growth differentials in these countries have played a debt-stabilizing role. But is this enough to prevent countries from falling into debt distress? Drawing from a sample of 150 emerging and developing economies going back to the 1970s, we find that interest-growth differentials have remained relatively low, dampening debt increases in the run up to a crisis. But in the face of persistent primary deficits, debt service tends to rise abruptly—particularly in emerging markets—and a fiscal crisis ensues. There is also evidence that a large part of the debt build-up around crises stems from valuation effects associated with external debt and the materialization of contingent liabilities. These findings underscore that, though not necessarily a red-herring, low interest-growth differentials cannot fully offset the deleterious effects of large fiscal deficits, forex exposures, or hidden debts.
Keywords:
dampening debt; interest-growth differential; debt build-up; debt-stabilizing role; debt Decomposition; Debt sustainability analysis; Real interest rates; Contingent liabilities; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Uncertainty Premia, Sovereign Default Risk, and State-Contingent Debt
Mr. Francisco Roch
and
Francisco Roldán
We analyze how concerns for model misspecification on the part of international lenders affect the desirability of issuing state-contingent debt instruments in a standard sovereign default model à la Eaton and Gersovitz (1981). We show that for the commonly used threshold state-contingent bond structure (e.g., the GDP-linked bond issued by Argentina in 2005), the model with robustness generates ambiguity premia in bond spreads that can explain most of what the literature has labeled as novelty premium. While the government would be better off with this bond when facing rational expectations lenders, this additional source of premia leads to welfare losses when facing robust lenders. Finally, we characterize the optimal design of the state-contingent bond and show how it varies with the level of robustness. Our findings rationalize the little use of these instruments in practice and shed light on their optimal design.
Keywords:
Sovereign debt; default; state-contingent debt instruments; robust control; ambiguity premia; probability distortion; robust lender; State-contingent debt; ambiguity aversion; debt structure; threshold bond; Bonds; Debt default; Rational expectations; Asset prices
Cover IMF Working Papers
r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?
Mr. Paolo Mauro
and
Jing Zhou
Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly, despite high government debts? Our paper undertakes an empirical analysis of interestgrowth differentials, using the largest historical database on average effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over up to 200 years. We document that negative differentials have occurred more often than not, in both advanced and emerging economies, and have often persisted for long historical stretches. Moreover, differentials are no higher prior to sovereign defaults than in normal times. Marginal (rather than average) government borrowing costs often rise abruptly and sharply, but just prior to default. Based on these results, our answer is: not really.
Keywords:
WP; emerging economy; debt ratio; emerging economies subsamples; interest-growth differentials; public debt; exchange rate; advanced economy; sovereign default; economic growth; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Real interest rates; Depreciation; Global; default episode; depreciation adjustment; government default
Cover Policy Papers
Review Of The Fund’s Income Position For FY 2019 And FY 2020
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper reviews the Fund’s income position for FY 2019 and FY 2020. The paper updates projections provided in April 2018 and proposes decisions for the current year. The paper includes a comprehensive review of the Fund’s income position as required under Rule I-6(4). No change is proposed in the margin for the rate of charge that was established under this rule in April 2018 for the period FY 2019–20.
Keywords:
PP; fy; position; SDR; income position; FY 2018; income discussion; SDR exchange rate; meeting FY; income of the arrangement; sensitivity analysis; intermediation cost; lower-than-expected surcharge income; income of the Endowment Subaccount; SDR billion; Personal income; SDR interest rate; Reserves accumulation; Arrears; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues
Ms. Anastasia Guscina
,
Sheheryar Malik
, and
Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.
Keywords:
WP; market access; LMA episode; LMA indicator; debt market; LMA risk; Sovereign Debt Restructuring; Default; Bond Spreads; LMA variable; LMA event; Debt sustainability; Credit ratings; Yield curve; Bonds; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Paraguay’s macroeconomic performance has been robust. For the expansion to be durable, however, it needs to continue broadening to more sectors and be more inclusive. The recovery in key partners remains uncertain, while domestic risks include weather-related shocks and ongoing adjustments in banks’ balance sheets. Strengthening institutions and closing infrastructure gaps is essential to overcome challenges to faster income convergence and more inclusive growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; outturn; central bank; Inter-American Development Bank; Paraguay
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Paraguay has grown robustly despite a more challenging external environment. The economy gained momentum toward the end of 2016 and expanded by 6.5 percent (year-over-year) during the first quarter of 2017. Real GDP growth is projected to reach 4.2 percent in 2017, reflecting a more moderate pace of activity in the second half of the year. Investment will likely be a crucial driver of growth, as major infrastructure projects are undertaken. Over the medium term, real GDP growth is expected to remain near potential of just below 4 percent. Risks around the outlook are to the downside, especially from heightened political uncertainty in Brazil.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; outturn; central bank; Inter-American Development Bank; Paraguay; credit growth; credit dollarization; central bank of Paraguay; IADB Paraguay; monetary policy rate; CPI index; Credit; Basel Core Principles; Central bank policy rate; Global