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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Spatial Spillovers in Emerging Market Spreads
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
,
Mr. Emanuele Baldacci
, and
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
We use novel spatial econometrics techniques to explore spillovers in the sovereign bond market for 24 emerging economies during 1995-2010. The paper extends the previous literature focusing on spillover effects from advanced to emerging economies by analyzing transmission of shocks across emerging markets. After controlling for the impact of global factors, we find strong evidence of spillovers from both sovereign spreads and macroeconomic fundamentals in neighboring emerging economies. In addition to the geographical proximity, the channels of spatial transmission include trade and financial linkages. The results of the paper highlight the importance of accounting not only for spillovers from advanced economies to emerging markets, but also across emerging markets when analyzing sovereign spreads.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle; debt; EM; sovereign spreads; emerging market; spillovers; spatial econometrics; Ols estimation; stripped bond; EM fundamentals; GDP ratio; EM sovereign; correlation matrix; estimation result; intra-EM spillover; trade linkage; Spatial models; Inflation; Business cycles; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Influence of “Big Brothers: ” How Important are Regional Factors for Uruguay?
Mr. Sebastian Sosa
This paper examines the role played by regional factors in Uruguay, identifies the sources and transmission mechanisms of shocks stemming from the region, and assesses how vulnerable Uruguay is to a potential crisis in the region. Using a VAR model with block exogeneity restrictions, it finds that shocks from Argentina-which account for about 20 percent of Uruguayan output fluctuations-have large and rapid effects. This is mainly due to the existence of idiosyncratic real and financial linkages between Uruguay and Argentina, which also explain the very high correlation between their business cycles. The analysis of previous crises in the region suggests that despite the importance of these strong linkages, and despite the fact the two deepest crises in recent Uruguayan history followed crises in Argentina, Uruguay is now clearly less vulnerable to financial contagion from the region.
Keywords:
WP; Uruguay; Argentina; Brazil; external shock
Cover IMF Working Papers
Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America
Mr. Ruy Lama
This paper evaluates what type of models can account for the recent episodes of output drops in Latin America. I develop an open economy version of the business cycle accounting methodology (Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan, 2007) in which output fluctuations are decomposed into four sources: total factor productivity (TFP), a labor wedge, a capital wedge, and a bond wedge. The paper shows that the most promising models are the ones that induce fluctuations of TFP and the labor wedge. On the other hand, models of fnancial frictions that translate into a bond or capital wedge are not successful in explaining output drops in Latin America. The paper also discusses the implications of these results for policy analysis using alternative DSGE models.
Keywords:
WP; open economy; labor wedge; working capital
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence: Some Historical Perspectives
Mr. Anoop Singh
and
Mr. Martin D. Cerisola
This paper looks at the historical lessons that might serve to entrech Latin America's newly resurgent growth phase. It briefly reviews the post-World War II experiences in Latin America and Asia, focusing on the conditions that favored capital accumulation and productivity growth in the faster growing economies. Among these, the paper highlights the importance of stable macroeconomic policies, especially fiscal policy.
Keywords:
WP; foreign direct investment; country authorities; central bank; inflation targeting; private sector; Macroeconomic Policy; Policy Design and Consistency; Economic Growth; Open Economies; reforming country; per capita income; country risk; fiscal policy volatility; physical capital; Latin American country; exchange rate regime; government intervention; Chile's policy framework; a number of country; competitive price; Exchange rate arrangements; Productivity; Capital accumulation; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Post-Crisis Recovery: When Does Increased Fiscal Discipline Work?
Ms. Pritha Mitra
Emerging market financial crises during the late 1990s were marked by sudden withdrawals of funds by foreign creditors, resulting in production declines. The IMF favored positive signals to potential foreign creditors and initially recommended disciplined fiscal policy during the height of crisis, countering standard Keynesian recommendations of expansionary fiscal stimulus. This paper formulates an open-economy general equilibrium model for resolving this policy conundrum and analyzing the impact of disciplined fiscal policy on post-crisis recovery. The model demonstrates via simulations that disciplined fiscal policy will improve (worsen) post-crisis recovery in the presence (absence) of appropriately defined production flexibility.
Keywords:
WP; long-term debt; Financial crisis; Emerging markets; Fiscal policy; goods firm; tradable good; collateral constraint; firm hire; physical assets; Collateral; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey
Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making institutions. The models are especially useful when the firms analyzed do not have publicly traded securities or secondary market prices are unreliable because of low liquidity.
Keywords:
WP; default probability; credit scoring
Cover IMF Working Papers
Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles
Mr. Allan Timmermann
,
Mr. Luis Catão
, and
Mr. Marco Aiolfi
This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; standard deviation; economic activity; government spending; Business Cycles; Factor Models; Latin America; business cycle volatility; shortening business cycle length; volatility in Latin America; time series; backcasted business cycle; density function; business cycle driver; Terms of trade; Economic recession; Global; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Survey
Calendrier
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Caribbean-IMF seminar; debt; Rodrigo de Rato
Cover IMF Survey
Calendario
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Caribbean-IMF seminar; debt; Rodrigo de Rato
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 34, Issue 09
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; Caribbean-IMF seminar; debt; Rodrigo de Rato; growth Facility; fund Facility; IMF survey; IMF publication service; IMF quota; Trade liberalization; Value-added tax; Trade policy; Business cycles; Tariffs; Asia and Pacific; Global; Africa; Europe; Central America