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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach
Tsendsuren Batsuuri
,
Shan He
,
Ruofei Hu
,
Jonathan Leslie
, and
Flora Lutz
This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.
Keywords:
Early warning systems; IMF Lending; Machine Learning; IMF arrangement; ML model; machine learning approach; state-of-the-art machine learning; machine learning model; Emergency assistance; Data processing; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper studies renewable energy and attempts to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) impact and assesses the role of policies in Chile. Chile has a comparative advantage in renewable energy. IMF estimates show that replacing coal power with solar and wind power, as announced by the government, could boost the long-term GDP level by at least 1 percentage point. The analysis indicates that the benefits of having targeted support for the transmission of electricity exceed costs. An additional benefit is the greater economic resilience to abrupt increases in coal and fuel prices that can have large negative impacts on the economy. A key constraint for the renewable energy sector is currently the transmission from where it is produced to where it is used. A cost-benefit analysis shows that state support industries, such as electricity transmission, may have economic benefits that outweigh the costs.
Keywords:
GDP impact; solvency risk; Chilean bank; Fintech firm; cybersecurity risk; Electricity; Cyber risk; Fintech; Energy sector; Financial inclusion; Global
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Thirty-Eighth Issue
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Thirty-Eighth Issue
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

This volume documents decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, as well as documents relating to the United Nations and other international organizations.

Keywords:
SELD; holding; capital transfer; usable currency; use of fund's resource; Japanese yen; signature authority decision; Currencies; Credit; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Loans; Multiple currency practices; Global; West Africa; Africa; Institutional View on capital flows
Cover Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF
An IEO Evaluation
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report examines whether the IMF has effectively leveraged an important asset: data. It finds that in general, the IMF has been able to rely on a large amount of data of acceptable quality, and that data provision from member countries has improved markedly over time. Nonetheless, problems with data or data practices have, at times, adversely affected the IMF’s surveillance and lending activities. The roots of data problems are diverse, ranging from problems due to member countries’ capacity constraints or reluctance to share sensitive data to internal issues such as lack of appropriate staff incentives, institutional rigidities, and long-standing work practices. Efforts to tackle these problems are piecemeal, the report finds, without a clear comprehensive strategy that recognizes data as an institutional strategic asset, not just a consumption good for economists. The report makes a number of recommendations that could promote greater progress in this regard.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; data; data management; evaluation; data practice; IMF data provision; model data management guideline; data management framework; data deficiency; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Data dissemination; Financial statistics; Financial statements; Global; data challenge; data management initiative; evaluation team; IMF document; Data collection
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Thirty-Seventh Issue
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Thirty-Seventh Issue
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

The Thirty-Seventh Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the International Monetary Fund, as well as selected documents to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the Fund. In addition, it includes documents relating to the IMF, the United Nations, and other international organizations.

Keywords:
SELD; holding; capital transfer; usable currency; use of fund's resource; Japanese yen; signature authority decision; Currencies; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Institutional View on capital flows; Loans; Global; West Africa; Africa; Credit
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Thirty-Sixth Issue
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, Thirty-Sixth Issue
Thirty-Sixth Issue
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The Thirty-Sixth Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and the Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents relevant to the current activities of the Fund.

Keywords:
SELD; capital transfer; usable currency; use of fund's resource; Japanese yen; signature authority decision; Currencies; Loans; Credit; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global; West Africa; Africa; Institutional View on capital flows
Cover Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund includes decisions, interpretations, and resolutions of the Executive Board and Board of Governors of the IMF, as well as selected documents to which frequent reference is made in the current activities of the Fund. In addition, it includes certain documents pertaining to the relations between the Fund and other international organizations.

Keywords:
SELD; sc; Fund; privileges of officer; usable currency; capital transfer; decision No. 1238; fund official; Currencies; Loans; Credit; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Multiple currency practices; Global; West Africa; Africa; Institutional View on capital flows
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does Sdds Subscription Reduce Borrowing Costs for Emerging Market Economies
Mr. John Cady
Does macroeconomic data transparency-as signaled by subscription to the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS)-help reduce borrowing costs in private capital markets? This question is examined using detailed data on new issues of sovereign foreign currency-denominated (U.S. dollar, yen, and euro) bonds for several emerging market economies. Panel econometric estimates indicate that spreads on new bond issues declined by about 75 basis points following SDDS subscription.
Keywords:
WP; SDDS subscription; yield; borrowing cost; SDDS discount; secondary market; Sovereign debt and yield spreads; international capital markets; standards and codes; data transparency; SDDS; SDDS coefficient estimate; emerging market yields spread; sovereign bond bond issue; SDDS data category; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Emerging and frontier financial markets; Bonds; Securities markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Transparency Good for You, and Can the IMF Help?
Yongseok Shin
and
Ms. Rachel Glennerster
This paper finds that reforms introduced by the IMF to promote transparency have created more informed markets and reduced borrowing costs for those emerging market countries that volunteered for them. Using a quarterly panel estimation with fixed country effects, we find that sovereign spreads fall following the adoption of three different transparency reforms. The effects are economically important, especially for those countries with low initial transparency. We use two-stage least squares to address any endogeneity in the timing of reforms exploiting internal IMF timetables that are unrelated to country events. Next, using a panel GARCH specification, we show that spreads move more than normal in the days immediately following publication of IMF country documents.
Keywords:
WP; program country; least squares; Transparency; publication; institutions; emerging markets; sovereign spreads; IMF; SDDS; ROSC; Article IV; GARCH; news effect; role of the IMF; credit ratings; borrowing costs; capital markets; data dissemination; market information; Article IV report; IMF document; publication effect; IMF country document; Article IV publication; IMF report; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Securities markets; Emerging and frontier financial markets; International capital markets; Africa; Central and Eastern Europe; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Link Between Adherence to International Standards of Good Practice, Foreign Exchange Spreads, and Ratings
Mr. Andrew J Tiffin
,
Mr. Christian B. Mulder
, and
Mr. Charalambos Christofides
This paper examines the relationship between adherence to international standards of good practice in policy-making and two key indicators of access to capital markets and the cost of this access: spreads and sovereign ratings. In contrast to other work, this study reviews a broad set of indicators for adherence to international standards. The estimations are conducted for emerging market economies, and pay particular attention to issues of persistence in spreads and ratings and nonlinearities in the relationships. The main finding confirms the expectation that standards are indeed relevant. Accounting standards and property rights are especially important for spreads, in addition to data transparency (SDDS subscription). Accounting standards and corruption are especially important in explaining ratings in addition to trade protectiveness (not a standard).
Keywords:
WP; financial market; short-term debt; Standard and Poor's; single standard; Standards and codes; foreign exchange spreads; credit ratings; crisis prevention; WEF favoritism variable; sovereign bond; lowest-and-highest rated country; opacity index; WEF government; country examples fpor; ratings Index; emerging-market country; General Data dissemination system; trade restrictiveness index; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Accounting standards; Asia and Pacific