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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Following the October 2020 election, the new administration moved to tackle the devastating human and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy shows signs of recovery from its 8.8 percent contraction in 2020. However, fiscal imbalances have increased and international reserves continue to fall. On February 12, Bolivia repurchased the 240.1 million SDR purchase under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument (that was approved by the Fund’s Executive Board in April 2020).
Mr. George M Kabwe
,
Elie Chamoun
,
Riaan van Greuning
,
Mowele Mohlala
, and
Ms. Julia Cardoso
Safeguards assessments are a key pillar of the risk management arrangements for IMF lending. Safeguards assessments aim to mitigate the risks of misuse of Fund resources and misreporting of program monetary data under Fund arrangements. Safeguards assessment reports are confidential and therefore the IMF Executive Board is provided with a periodic report on safeguards activities on a biennial basis, in addition to high-level summaries in member country staff reports on key findings and recommendations. This update on safeguards activity covers the period May 2017 to end-April 2019 (the period).
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that Uruguay has preserved macroeconomic stability in the wake of the turbulence in the region due to prudent policies and the accumulation of buffers over the years. With the worsening outlook and less friendly external environment, in the near term, policies should focus on maintaining resilience. In this context, additional efforts are needed to put debt on a firm downward trajectory and reduce inflation to within the target band. The IMF staff assesses that the external position is broadly consistent with fundamentals and desirable policy settings. The authorities and IMF staff have remained in broad agreement on the macroeconomic policy objectives, including maintaining public debt on a sustainable trajectory, keeping inflation low, and allowing exchange rate to adjust in line with fundamentals. Fiscal adjustment, however, has not proceeded as quickly as had been originally expected, and inflation has proven difficult to contain within the authorities’ target range.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), a technical-assistance mission on external-sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires on November 14–25, 2016. Currently, INDEC’s National Directorate for International Accounts (DNCI) compiles and disseminates ESS following the guidelines of the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. The mission reviewed the ESS methodology, data sources, and dissemination policy in order to help enhance its quality and to assist compilers in migrating the methodology to the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The main data sources used to compile the current account and the capital account (excluding investment income, which is compiled along with the financial account and the IIP) are customs records, corporate surveys, the international-tourism survey, accounting information available to the public, administrative records, and information concerning the exchange balance disseminated by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). The mission found data sources and compilation procedures to be sound. Although the mission identified improvements that could add to the quality of certain estimates, the balances of the current and capital accounts are expected to remain substantially unchanged.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Statistics and Census Institute (INDEC), a technical assistance mission on external sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires during April 17–28, 2017. This was a follow up to the November 2016 mission that evaluated the ESS methodology, information sources, and dissemination policy and made recommendations to improve quality, adapt the production of ESS to the methodology provided by the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6), and support the quarterly compilation and dissemination of the International Investment Position (IIP) in accordance with the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The mission reviewed the implementation status of the tasks identified in the action plan prepared by the November 2016 mission; assisted compilers in preparing quarterly ESS in accordance with BPM6 guidelines for the next quarterly publication; and provided practical advice on the methodology to be used.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
After years of impressive growth and poverty reduction, Bolivia is facing a more challenging period. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies combined with lower gas and minerals prices have contributed to continued large twin deficits, foreign reserve losses, and a sharp increase in public debt. External competitiveness has been negatively affected by the appreciating US dollar, high wage growth, and domestic policies that have hindered private sector investment. A definitive change in the policy stance is warranted to restore external balance, minimize a further buildup in vulnerabilities, and promote broad based growth.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This report examines whether the IMF has effectively leveraged an important asset: data. It finds that in general, the IMF has been able to rely on a large amount of data of acceptable quality, and that data provision from member countries has improved markedly over time. Nonetheless, problems with data or data practices have, at times, adversely affected the IMF’s surveillance and lending activities. The roots of data problems are diverse, ranging from problems due to member countries’ capacity constraints or reluctance to share sensitive data to internal issues such as lack of appropriate staff incentives, institutional rigidities, and long-standing work practices. Efforts to tackle these problems are piecemeal, the report finds, without a clear comprehensive strategy that recognizes data as an institutional strategic asset, not just a consumption good for economists. The report makes a number of recommendations that could promote greater progress in this regard.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Uruguay has achieved more than a decade of high and inclusive economic growth, supported by social stability and reduced regional linkages. The country has weathered the recent global and regional headwinds relatively well so far. Yet the economy is slowing down, while inflation remains above target, and deposit dollarization has risen. While the baseline projection foresees a temporary and moderate slowdown, the country is exposed to further shocks, especially from the immediate region.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
TEMAS PRINCIPALES Contexto: Los fundamentos económicos de Paraguay son sólidos: bajo nivel de endeudamiento, cuantiosas reservas oficiales y desequilibrios fiscales y externos reducidos. El principal desafío por delante consiste en mejorar el desarrollo social y económico, fortaleciendo al mismo tiempo el marco de política macroeconómica para cimentar fundamentos sólidos. Ante estos desafíos, el gobierno que asumió funciones en agosto de 2013 ha propuesto importantes reformas y ha dado un decidido primer paso al promulgar leyes de importancia clave: nuevos impuestos, alianzas público-privadas (APP) y leyes de responsabilidad fiscal. Perspectivas: Las perspectivas de Paraguay para 2014–18 son favorables, con riesgos ampliamente equilibrados pese a una coyuntura externa menos dinámica. La economía seguirá siendo una de las más pujantes de la región, con un crecimiento que para 2016 retornará al nivel potencial de aproximadamente 4,5%, una inflación acorde con la tasa fijada como meta por el banco central y bajos niveles de déficit fiscal y en cuenta corriente. Conforme a estas perspectivas, la orientación de la política económica debería tornarse más restrictiva a corto plazo, tomando como guía la responsabilidad fiscal y un incipiente régimen de metas de inflación a mediano plazo. Cimentar fundamentos económicos sólidos: La Ley de Responsabilidad Fiscal proporciona una base sólida para la sostenibilidad fiscal, pero se necesitan instituciones presupuestarias más firmes para mejorar la calidad del gasto, a la vez que se fortalecen la administración y la capacitad tributaria y aduanera para disipar los riesgos que podrían plantear las APP. Las reformas de la función pública y las pensiones también son necesarias para seguir reforzando el marco fiscal. El banco central ha avanzado bastante en la implementación de un régimen de metas de inflación, junto con la flexibilización del tipo de cambio. La atención debe seguir centrada en medidas para lograr un régimen de metas de inflación cabal y en reforzar la supervisión basada en riesgos conforme a prácticas óptimas internacionales. Crecimiento inclusivo: La reducción de la pobreza dependerá de que se garantice la sostenibilidad a largo plazo de las iniciativas que están en curso y de que se incremente la flexibilidad del mercado laboral para reducir la informalidad, así como de una mejor gestión de las empresas públicas para ampliar el acceso a servicios públicos básicos a un costo razonable.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2013 Article IV consultation highlights the main challenge ahead for Paraguay, which is to improve social and economic development while strengthening the macroeconomic policy framework to cement strong fundamentals. Paraguay’s outlook for 2014–18 is favorable, with broadly balanced risks, despite less buoyant external conditions. The economy is expected to continue to be one of the most dynamic in the region, with growth returning to potential of about 4.5 percent a year by 2016, inflation in line with the central bank’s target rate, and small fiscal and current account deficits. Consistent with this outlook, the policy stance should be tightened in the near term, with policies guided by fiscal responsibility and incipient inflation-targeting frameworks over the medium term.