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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 51 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Large Emerging Economies: How Dominant Is China?
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Adina Popescu
This paper investigates the global economic spillovers emanating from G20 emerging markets (G20-EMs), with a particular emphasis on the comparative influence of China. Employing a Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, we assess the impacts of both demand-side and supply-side shocks across 63 countries, capturing the nuanced dynamics of global economic interactions. Our findings reveal that China's contribution to global economic spillovers significantly overshadows that of other G20-EMs. Specifically, China's domestic shocks have significantly larger and more pervasive spillover effects on global GDP, inflation and commodity prices compared to shocks from other G20-EMs. In contrast, spillovers from other G20-EMs are more regionally contained with modest global impacts. The study underscores China's outsized role in shaping global economic dynamics and the limited capacity of other G20-EMs to mitigate any potential negative implications from China's economic slowdown in the near term.
Keywords:
Emerging Economies; Growth Spillover; Global transmission; GVAR model; outsized role; China's contribution; IMF working paper No. 25/27; domestic shock; Spillovers; Supply shocks; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Oil prices; Global value chains; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reported Social Unrest Index: September 2024 Update
Philip Barrett
This is the third update of the reported Social Unrest Index (Barrett et al. 2022), describing the evolution of social unrest worldwide since June 2023. It shows that the global incidence of unrest has stayed broadly stable in the last year. However, the global distribution has not been even, with a concentration of major events in Europe and sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, in the Western Hemisphere.
Keywords:
Social unrest; Media coverage; unrest event; RSUI data; unrest index; copyright page; RSUI-defined event; Stock markets; COVID-19; Western Hemisphere; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach
Tsendsuren Batsuuri
,
Shan He
,
Ruofei Hu
,
Jonathan Leslie
, and
Flora Lutz
This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.
Keywords:
Early warning systems; IMF Lending; Machine Learning; IMF arrangement; ML model; machine learning approach; state-of-the-art machine learning; machine learning model; Emergency assistance; Data processing; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Identifying Optimal Indicators and Lag Terms for Nowcasting Models
Jing Xie
Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if any guidance on selecting the best explantory variables (both high- and low-frequency indicators) from the (typically) larger set of variables available to the nowcaster. Second, in addition to the selection of explanatory variables, the order of the autoregression and moving average terms to use in the baseline nowcasting regression is often set arbitrarily. This paper proposes a simple procedure that simultaneously selects the optimal indicators and ARIMA(p,q) terms for the baseline nowcasting regression. The proposed AS-ARIMAX (Adjusted Stepwise Autoregressive Moving Average methods with exogenous variables) approach significantly reduces out-of-sample root mean square error for nowcasts of real GDP of six countries, including India, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Keywords:
Nowcasting; Mixed Frequency; Forecasting; Business Cycles; selection procedure; Annex I. AS-ARIMAX procedure; nowcasting method; evaluation comparison; baseline model; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bolivia: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bolivia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Following the October 2020 election, the new administration moved to tackle the devastating human and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy shows signs of recovery from its 8.8 percent contraction in 2020. However, fiscal imbalances have increased and international reserves continue to fall. On February 12, Bolivia repurchased the 240.1 million SDR purchase under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument (that was approved by the Fund’s Executive Board in April 2020).
Keywords:
IMF staff visit; government administration; U.S. dollar; health personnel; import substitution policy; one-off expenditure item; Public sector; Exchange rate flexibility; COVID-19; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes
Mr. Ramzy Al Amine
and
Tim Willems
We find that countries which are able to borrow at spreads that seem low given fundamentals (for example because investors take a bullish view on a country's future), are more likely to develop economic difficulties later on. We obtain this result through a two-stage procedure, where a first regression links sovereign spreads to fundamentals, after which residuals from this regression are deployed in a second stage to assess their impact on future outcomes (real GDP growth and the occurrence of fiscal crises). We confirm the relevance of past sovereign debt mispricing in several out-of-sample exercises, where they reduce the RMSE of real GDP growth forecasts by as much as 15 percent. This provides strong support for theories of sentiment affecting the business cycle. Our findings also suggest that countries shouldn't solely rely on spread levels when determining their fiscal strategy; underlying fundamentals should inform policy as well, since historical relationships between spreads and fundamentals often continue to apply in the medium-to-long run.
Keywords:
WP; sub; cross-validation procedure; sentiment; sovereign debt; sovereign spreads; debt crises; over-optimism; growth forecasting; real GDP growth; credit rating; growth forecast; spread discount; Current account deficits; Government consumption; Southern Europe; leave-one-out procedure; spreads data; investor sentiment
Cover Policy Papers
Safeguards Assessment—2019 Update
Mr. George M Kabwe
,
Elie Chamoun
,
Riaan van Greuning
,
Mowele Mohlala
, and
Ms. Julia Cardoso
Safeguards assessments are a key pillar of the risk management arrangements for IMF lending. Safeguards assessments aim to mitigate the risks of misuse of Fund resources and misreporting of program monetary data under Fund arrangements. Safeguards assessment reports are confidential and therefore the IMF Executive Board is provided with a periodic report on safeguards activities on a biennial basis, in addition to high-level summaries in member country staff reports on key findings and recommendations. This update on safeguards activity covers the period May 2017 to end-April 2019 (the period).
Keywords:
PP; central bank; governance; audit; risk management framework; lending; governance arrangement; central bank participant; central bank autonomy provision; central bank safeguards framework; central bank authority; Internal audit; Central bank governance; External audit; Auditing; Monetary statistics; Global; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; West Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Uruguay
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Article IV Consultation highlights that Uruguay has preserved macroeconomic stability in the wake of the turbulence in the region due to prudent policies and the accumulation of buffers over the years. With the worsening outlook and less friendly external environment, in the near term, policies should focus on maintaining resilience. In this context, additional efforts are needed to put debt on a firm downward trajectory and reduce inflation to within the target band. The IMF staff assesses that the external position is broadly consistent with fundamentals and desirable policy settings. The authorities and IMF staff have remained in broad agreement on the macroeconomic policy objectives, including maintaining public debt on a sustainable trajectory, keeping inflation low, and allowing exchange rate to adjust in line with fundamentals. Fiscal adjustment, however, has not proceeded as quickly as had been originally expected, and inflation has proven difficult to contain within the authorities’ target range.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; center; Uruguay; bank assets; consumer price index; asset; public-sector asset-liability management; Uruguay's case; growth outlook; merchandise export; Uruguay's growth; Uruguay's export; Uruguay's exposure; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Public sector; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Global; annex I.External sector assessment; IMF's transparency policy; I.External sector assessment; inflation expectation; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Technical Assistance Report-Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics (November 14-25, 2016)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC), a technical-assistance mission on external-sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires on November 14–25, 2016. Currently, INDEC’s National Directorate for International Accounts (DNCI) compiles and disseminates ESS following the guidelines of the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual. The mission reviewed the ESS methodology, data sources, and dissemination policy in order to help enhance its quality and to assist compilers in migrating the methodology to the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The main data sources used to compile the current account and the capital account (excluding investment income, which is compiled along with the financial account and the IIP) are customs records, corporate surveys, the international-tourism survey, accounting information available to the public, administrative records, and information concerning the exchange balance disseminated by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA). The mission found data sources and compilation procedures to be sound. Although the mission identified improvements that could add to the quality of certain estimates, the balances of the current and capital accounts are expected to remain substantially unchanged.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCRA; investment; DNCI; corporation; enterprise; service-corporation survey; investment enterprise; land passenger-transport corporation; BCRA staff; exchange balance; aggregate data; Business enterprises; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; Foreign direct investment; International investment position
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Technical Assistance Report-Report of the Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics (April 17–28, 2017)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the National Statistics and Census Institute (INDEC), a technical assistance mission on external sector statistics (ESS) visited Buenos Aires during April 17–28, 2017. This was a follow up to the November 2016 mission that evaluated the ESS methodology, information sources, and dissemination policy and made recommendations to improve quality, adapt the production of ESS to the methodology provided by the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition (BPM6), and support the quarterly compilation and dissemination of the International Investment Position (IIP) in accordance with the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The mission reviewed the implementation status of the tasks identified in the action plan prepared by the November 2016 mission; assisted compilers in preparing quarterly ESS in accordance with BPM6 guidelines for the next quarterly publication; and provided practical advice on the methodology to be used.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCRA; DNCI; BPM6; mission; current account; debt survey; IIP quarterly; balance of payments goods account; dissemination policy; BCRA chart; DNCI staff; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; International investment position; Private debt