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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On March 25, 2022, the IMF Executive Board approved a 30-month arrangement for Argentina supported by the Extended Fund Facility (2022 EFF). Amounting to US$44 billion (1,001 percent of quota), it was the second largest non-precautionary arrangement in the Fund’s history after the 2018 Stand-by Arrangement for Argentina (2018 SBA). Of the planned 10 reviews, eight were completed. The arrangement is set to expire at end-2024.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy
The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy
Evaluation Report Dec 2024
Vivek B Arora
,
Miguel de Las Casas
,
Yasemin Bal Gündüz
,
Jérémie Cohen-Setton
,
Kelsie J Gentle
,
Jiakun Li
,
Carmen Rollins
, and
Sandra Saveikyte

Abstract

The evaluation assesses the EAP’s rationale, evolution, and implementation during the period since its adoption in 2002. It assesses whether the EAP has fulfilled the objectives that guided its creation, namely, shaping members’ and market expectations, providing clearer benchmarks for Board decisions on program design and exceptional access, safeguarding the Fund’s resources, and helping to ensure uniformity of treatment of members. The evaluation draws on background papers comprising both thematic and country studies that draw on experience with the 38 exceptional access programs completed through mid-2023. The thematic papers analyze the rationale and evolution of the EAP as well as the three building blocks of the policy: the exceptional access criteria, enhanced Board decision-making procedures, and ex post evaluations. The country papers comprise both cross-country studies and country-specific studies of the completed programs with Argentina (2018), Ecuador (2020), and Egypt (2020).

Keywords:
Exceptional access; IMF lending; safeguarding Fund resources; program design; uniformity of treatment; risk management; program success; EA program; surcharge rate; ToC of an Na arrangement; detailed Theory of Change; Debt sustainability; Reputational risk; Balance of payments need; Capital account crisis; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Understanding Artificial Intelligence in Tax and Customs Administration
Joshua Aslett
,
Stuart Hamilton
,
Ignacio Gonzalez
,
David Hadwick
, and
Michael A Hardy
This technical note provides an overview of current thinking on artificial intelligence (AI) in tax and customs administration. Written primarily for senior officials, the intent of the note is to provide an awareness of AI that can help inform decision making and planning. The note opens with an exploration of historic and ongoing AI developments. It then provides an overview of legal and ethical concerns, AI use cases, guidance on how to promote AI's responsible use, and logic for introducing AI use cases into an operational setting. The note closes by presenting a selection of questions being debated by experts. In its annexes, the note includes (1) an example of an AI policy; (2) references to help develop AI strategy; and (3) methodology to risk assess AI use cases.
Keywords:
tax administration; customs administration; artificial intelligence; generative artificial intelligence; AI regulation; strategy and planning; use case; AI strategy; understanding AI; AI Policy; risk assessment; Tax administration core functions; Customs administration core functions; Training and development in revenue administration; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that in 2023, Uruguay confronted the impact of a once-in-a-century severe drought and external headwinds, but the economy remained resilient, owing to the authorities’ sound macroeconomic policies, the country’s political stability, and strong institutions. While economic growth decelerated in 2023, employment rose, and inflation fell within the target range. As inflationary pressures cooled off, the Banco Central del Uruguay started lowering its monetary policy rate in April 2023, while maintaining a contractionary stance. The economy is expected to strongly rebound in 2024, underpinned by the recovery of agricultural exports, increased cellulose production, easing of financial conditions and robust private consumption. Main risks are broadly balanced. Overall fiscal and external risks are low. The post-drought growth momentum creates opportunities for reinvigorating fiscal consolidation efforts. The crafting of the next five-year budget law opens an opportunity to recalibrate the fiscal rule targets to place debt on a downward path. Refinements to the fiscal rule would help consolidate recent credibility gains. Monetary policy should remain contractionary to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay within the target range in a sustained manner. Structural reforms are key to unlock potential growth, create policy space to preserve the country’s safety net and social cohesion, and support favorable sovereign debt ratings.
Keywords:
government bond bond market; inflation expectation; BCU inflation target; data ROSC reassessment; support policy continuity; Policy issue; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Fiscal councils; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Eight Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Sustaining progress requires improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, taking initial steps toward an enhanced monetary and foreign exchange policy framework, and implementing reforms to unlock growth, formal employment, and investment. Greater focus on micro-level reforms will help support the recovery and boost potential growth. The proposed reforms aimed at improving competitiveness, increasing labor market flexibility, and improving the predictability of the regulatory framework for investment, are steps in the right direction, and their approval and careful implementation should be a priority. Risks, although moderated, are still elevated, requiring agile policymaking. Contingency planning will remain critical, and policies will need to continue to adapt to evolving outcomes to safeguard stability and ensure all program objectives continue to be met.
Keywords:
FX policy; BCRA FX purchase; FX gap; cost recovery; FX access tax; Exchange restrictions; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Debt Dynamics During the Climate Transition
Daniel Garcia-Macia
,
Waikei R Lam
, and
Anh D. M. Nguyen
Managing the climate transition presents policymakers with a tradeoff between achieving climate goals, fiscal sustainability, and political feasibility, which calls for a fiscal balancing act with the right mix of policies. This paper develops a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model to quantify the fiscal impacts of various climate policy packages aimed at reaching net zero emissions by mid-century. Our simulations show that relying primarily on spending measures to deliver on climate ambitions will be costly, possibly raising debt by 45-50 percent of GDP by 2050. However, a balanced mix of carbon-pricing and spending-based policies can deliver on net zero with a much smaller fiscal cost, limiting the increase in public debt to 10-15 percent of GDP by 2050. Carbon pricing is central not only as an effective tool for emissions reduction but also as a revenue source. Delaying carbon pricing action could increase costs, especially if less effective measures are scaled up to meet climate targets. Technology spillovers can reduce the costs but bottlenecks in green investment could unwind the gains and slow the transition.
Keywords:
Climate change; mitigation; public debt; carbon pricing; subsidies; public investment; industrial policies; dynamic general equilibrium.; technology spillover; investment bottleneck; No. 2024/71; mix of carbon-pricing; adjustment cost parameter; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Climate finance; Climate policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Debt Surges—Drivers, Consequences, and Policy Implications
Florian Schuster
,
Marwa Alnasaa
,
Lahcen Bounader
,
Il Jung
,
Jeta Menkulasi
, and
Joana da Mota
Many countries find themselves with elevated debt levels, increased debt vulnerabilities, and tight financing conditions, while also facing increased spending needs for development and transition to a greener economy. This paper aims to place the current debt landscape in a historical context and investigate the drivers of debt surges, to what degree they result in a crisis as well as examine post-surge debt trajectories and under what conditions debt follows a non-declining path. We find that fiscal policy and stock-flow adjustments play important roles in debt dynamics with the valuation effects arising from currency depreciation explaining more than half of stock flow adjustments in LICs. Debt surges are estimated to result in a financial crisis with a probability of 11–20 percent and spending-driven fiscal expansions during debt surges tend to result in a high probability of non-declining debt path.
Keywords:
Public debt; debt surges; financial crisis; stock-flow adjustment; exchange rate depreciation; fiscal expansion; debt surge; surge episode; surge attribute; post debt path; surge debt trajectory; Contingent liabilities; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Operational Guidance Note On Program Design and Conditionality
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This note aims to provide guidance on the key principles and considerations underlying the design of Fund-supported programs. The note expands on the previous operational guidance notes on conditionality published over 2003-2014, incorporating lessons from the 2018-19 Review of Conditionality, and other recent key policy developments including the recommendation of the Management’s Implementation Plan in response to Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The note in particular highlights operational advice to (i) improve the realism of macroeconomic forecast in programs and fostering a more systematic analysis of contingency plans and risks; (ii) improve the focus, depth, implementation, and tailoring of structural conditions (SCs), with due consideration of growth effects; and (iii) help strengthen the ownership of country authorities. Designed as a comprehensive reference and primer on program design and conditionality in an accessible and transparent manner, the note refers in summary to a broad range of economic and policy considerations over the lifecycle of Fund-supported programs. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.
Keywords:
Conditionality; Conditionality guidelines; Use of Fund resources; Fund-supported adjustment programs; Debt sustainability analysis; Structural reform; Fragile and conflict-affected states; transparency policy; guidance note; Fund-supported program; financing gap; climate change policy assessment; policy note; existing IMF policy; financial support; Balance of payments need; Debt sustainability; Structural reforms; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Since completion of the fourth review, key program targets were missed reflecting the historic drought along with policy slippages. Against the backdrop of high inflation and rising balance of payments pressures, agreement was reached on a new policy package centered on rebuilding reserves and enhancing fiscal order. Continued strong policy implementation will be critical in the period ahead to safeguard stability and strengthen medium-term sustainability. Risks remain elevated, reflecting an increasingly fragile economic and social situation, rising program implementation difficulties, and election-related uncertainties. In addition, risks could intensify should the projected improvements in climate conditions not materialize, or external conditions worsen. Moreover, even with steadfast implementation, elements of the new policy package may still need to be recalibrated to secure the intended results.
Keywords:
recovery objective; electricity price; staff appraisal; waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria; production cost estimate; policy package; Exchange restrictions; Multiple currency practices; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Global; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Staff Guidance Note on Information Sharing in The Context of Sovereign Debt Restructurings
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The guidance note sets out principles governing information sharing in the context of sovereign debt restructurings. It restates the existing Fund governance and policy guidelines for information sharing to help inform and harmonize practices across Fund country teams. In addition to outlining guiding principles applicable to information sharing, it provides guidance on what level of information can be shared during each stage of the restructuring and program design process and in the surveillance context
Keywords:
confidentiality; debt relief; debt sustainability analysis; executive board documents; external debt; fund policies; policy framework papers; political economy; publications; public debt; transparency; draft debt sustainability analysis; transparency policy; Fund staff; Fund arrangement; draft DSA document; restructuring process; Fund-supported program; analysis act; Debt sustainability; Debt restructuring; Sovereign debt restructuring