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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Will the AI Revolution Cause a Great Divergence?
Cristian Alonso
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Siddharth Kothari
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Sidra Rehman
This paper considers the implications for developing countries of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor. It makes simple and plausible assumptions: the AI revolution can be modeled as an increase in productivity of a distinct type of capital that substitutes closely with labor; and the only fundamental difference between the advanced and developing country is the level of TFP. This set-up is minimalist, but the resulting conclusions are powerful: improvements in the productivity of “robots” drive divergence, as advanced countries differentially benefit from their initially higher robot intensity, driven by their endogenously higher wages and stock of complementary traditional capital. In addition, capital—if internationally mobile—is pulled “uphill”, resulting in a transitional GDP decline in the developing country. In an extended model where robots substitute only for unskilled labor, the terms of trade, and hence GDP, may decline permanently for the country relatively well-endowed in unskilled labor.
Keywords:
WP; production function; financial asset; Automation; robots; divergence; development; technological change; advanced economy; labor share; unskilled labor; developing economy; robot productivity; robot share; Robotics; Unskilled labor; Labor share; Skilled labor; Global; parameter e; unskilled-labor-saving technology
Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring-Summer 2020
IMF Research Perspectives Spring-Summer 2020
Keywords:
IRB; worker; view IMF research; MARTINEZ PERIA interview
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper studies economic growth in Uruguay. Following the 2002 crisis, Uruguay had a remarkable economic recovery. The major growth acceleration in 2004–14 was explained by a combination of positive external factors, recovery from crisis, and emergence of new export sectors. With external factors no longer a support for growth, Uruguay needs to leverage its strengths to raise growth sustainably. Uruguay’s high level of institutional quality and social cohesion provides a stable container for growth. A comparison relative to its trading partners and high growth peers helps identify areas that Uruguay can further enhance to unleash its growth potential. These include, a strong, flexible, and equitable labor market, better education outcomes, higher private sector dynamism, and continued macro stability. Structural policy reforms on key constraints to the private sector will help realize the potential of the new export industries and set the stage for inclusive growth. A strong and credible macro policy framework is also essential for growth sustainability. Efforts to reduce debt, inflation, and dollarization and keep them at low levels will lay the foundations for structural reforms to flourish.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; infrastructure investment; text; youth unemployment; youth-to-adult unemployment gap; Labor indicator; wage council; labor market condition; Unemployment; Exports; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Infrastructure; Public investment spending; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impacts of Labor Market Institutions and Demographic Factors on Labor Markets in Latin America
Adriana D. Kugler
This paper documents recent labor market performance in the Latin American region. The paper shows that unemployment, informality, and inequality have been falling over the past two decades, though still remain high. By contrast, productivity has remained stubbornly low. The paper, then, turns to the potential impacts of various labor market institutions, including employment protection legislation (EPL), minimum wages (MW), payroll taxes, unemployment insurance (UI) and collective bargaining, as well as the impacts of demographic changes on labor market performance. The paper relies on evidence from carefully conducted studies based on micro-data for countries in the region and for other countries with similar income levels to draw conclusions on the impact of labor market institutions and demographic factors on unemployment, informality, inequality and productivity. The decreases in unemployment and informality can be partly explained by the reduced strictness of EPL and payroll taxes, but also by the increased shares of more educated and older workers. By contrast, the fall in inequality starting in 2002 can be explained by a combination of binding MW throughout most of the region and, to a lesser extent, by the introduction of UI systems in some countries and the role of unions in countries with moderate unionization rates. Falling inequality can also be explained by the fall in the returns to skill associated with increased share of more educated and older workers.
Keywords:
WP; unemployment rate; Gini coefficient; collective bargaining; wage inequality; inequality in Latin America; reservation wage; labor market institutions; labor demographics; inequality; Latin America; worker-employer match; skilled worker; worker morale; Employment; Wages; Employment protection; Labor markets; Unemployment; Central America; Africa
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Designing Labor Market Institutions in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evidence and Policy Options
Mr. Romain A Duval
and
Mr. Prakash Loungani
This paper discusses theoretical aspects and evidences related to designing labor market institutions in emerging market and developing economies. This note reviews the state of theory and evidence on the design of labor market institutions in a developing economy context and then reviews its consistency with actual labor market advice in a selected set of emerging and developing economies. The focus is mainly on three broad sets of institutions that matter for both workers’ protection and labor market efficiency: employment protection, unemployment insurance and social assistance, minimum wages and collective bargaining. Text mining techniques are used to identify IMF recommendations in these areas in Article IV Reports for 30 emerging and frontier economies over 2005–2016. This note has provided a critical review of the literature on the design of labor market institutions in emerging and developing market economies, and benchmarked the advice featured in IMF recommendations for 30 emerging market and frontier economies against the tentative conclusions from the literature.
Keywords:
SDN; collective bargaining; unemployment insurance; severance pay; developing economy; UI system; Labor Market Institutions; Employment Protection; Unemployment Benefits; Social Assistance; Cash Transfers; Minimum Wage; monopsony power; firm level; income group; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Minimum wages; Labor markets; Africa; risk pooling; wage inequality
Cover IMF Working Papers
More Work to Do? Taking Stock of Latin American Labor Markets
Mr. Antonio David
,
Frederic Lambert
, and
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
We analyze the performance of labor markets in Latin America since the late 1990s. Strong GDP growth during the commodity boom period led to important gains in employment and a fall in the unemployment rate as labor demand outpaced an increasing labor supply. We emphasize the role of informality in the dynamics of labor markets in Latin America. A re-examination of Okun’s law shows that informality dampens changes in unemployment accompanying output fluctuations. Moreover, we present some evidence that countries with higher redundancy costs and cumbersome dismissal regulations, exhibit “excess” informality over and above what would be expected based on their income and educational levels. Labor market reforms could thus contribute to reducing informality and increasing the responsiveness of labor markets to output growth. However, looking at selected case studies of reforms using the synthetic control method, we find mixed results in terms of labor market outcomes.
Keywords:
WP; unemployment rate; minimum wage; collective bargaining; employment growth; financial crisis; participation rate; Labor Markets; Latin America; Okun’s Law; Informality; institutions data; wage council; low income; unemployment margin; labor market slack; growth rate; wage pressure; terms of trade; indicators in Latin America; employment protection regime; labor markets in Latin America; Unemployment; Labor market institutions; Employment; South America; Central America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nicaragua: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Nicaragua’s social security system, which is projected to run out of liquid reserves by 2019, several years earlier than anticipated. To avoid burdening the budget, reforms to the system are urgently needed. A deep actuarial, economic, and operational analysis is needed to design a comprehensive reform program. Such a program must ensure that the defined-benefit, pay-as-you-go system can sustain itself for another generation of workers and that improved health care benefits can be maintained. A politically acceptable, pragmatic solution appears within reach. However, the authorities should act quickly to avoid a costly bailout of the system.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Nicaragua; free zone; commodity; transfer pricing; CPS deficit; export tax free zones; commodity export; CPS balance; trade shock; commodity TP regulation; Pension spending; Pensions; Climate change; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographic Changes in Latin America: The Good, the Bad and …
Mr. Santiago Acosta Ormaechea
,
Marco A Espinosa-Vega
, and
Diego Wachs
The paper develops a simple, integrated methodology to project public pension cash flows and healthcare spending over the long term. We illustrate its features by applying it to the LAC5 (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico), where public spending pressures are expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to demographic trends and rising healthcare costs. We simulate alternative pension reforms, including the transition from a defined benefit to a defined contribution pension system and the fiscal burden of a minimum guaranteed pension under the latter. We also analyze public healthcare outlays in the LAC5, which is likewise expected to increase significantly over 2015-50 due to aging and the so-called excess cost growth factor of healthcare services, showing that curbing the evolution of the latter (e.g., through enhanced competition in the healthcare sector) could aid in containing spending pressures. Despite its simplicity, the methodology yields projections that compare well with other approaches. It therefore provides a good benchmark for assessing alternative reform scenarios, particularly in data-constrained countries.
Keywords:
WP; inflation rate; defined contribution; DC system; replacement rate; DB system; pension system; public pension spending; public healthcare spending; aging; pension system reforms; contribution rate; cash flow; Pension spending; Pensions; Retirement; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Argentina’s investment rate which was well below the average of Latin American countries and that of a peer group of advanced and emerging market countries, with a larger gap in private investment. Raising investment prospects would be essential to boost economic activity. The administration that took office in December 2015 has emphasized the importance of generating an investor friendly environment that allows Argentina to recover some of the growth opportunities lost over the last few decades. Although quantifying the capital accumulation gap is a clearly a difficult task, one way of doing so is to look at the difference between Argentina’s capital-labor ratio and that of the selected peer group of countries. Argentina’s investment rates and capital-output ratios are also compared with estimates of their steady state values derived from standard neoclassical growth models. Argentina’s investment rate would need to increase significantly to eliminate the capital accumulation gap built during the last two decades, and this could significantly accelerate GDP growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; Argentina; exchange rate; investment rate; indexation formula; cost reduction; indexing benefit; balance sheet expansion; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Financial statements; Pensions; Global; Caribbean; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: “A New Look at Bank Capital” (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and “Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses “Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; href; Journal citation report; Policy response; journal website; paperback ISBN 978-1-49832-468-7; research journal; Mundell-Fleming Lecture; Banking crises; Oil prices; Oil; Capital adequacy requirements; Global; Eastern Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Asia and Pacific