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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 54 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Scalability of Credit-Enhanced EM Climate Debt: What Role Can Guarantees, Collateralization, Securitizations, and Investment Funds Play?
Peter Lindner
,
Ananthakrishnan Prasad
, and
Jean-Marie Masse
This paper reviews the main types of credit enhancement approaches used to support climate debt issuances by EMDE borrowers. Fragmentation on the part of the providers of credit enhancements was identified as a major factor impeding scalability of credit-enhanced debt. The acceptance of credit-enhanced debt is also hampered by the structural characteristics of the capital markets, especially the fragmentation of the investor base. To place significant amounts of credit-enhanced climate debt with private sector investors, MDBs, DFIs, and other stakeholders should focus on simple and replicable debt structures. Securitizations and investment funds could help fund private sector climate investments in EMDEs.
Keywords:
Credit enhancements; blended finance; debt-for-climate swaps; climate mitigation; climate adaptation; climate finance; guarantees; securitization.; climate debt; B. credit enhancement; EMDE investor base; enhancement approach; replicable debt structure; capital market consideration; Bonds; Loans; Credit; Securities; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Episodes of domestic policy uncertainty and acute market pressures in mid- 2022, coupled with a more challenging global environment, necessitated firmer program implementation and stronger policy reaction to ensure macroeconomic stability, rebuild policy credibility, and safeguard program objectives. Initial decisive actions and strengthened commitments by the new economic team since early-August have started to stabilized markets, although the situation is fragile as reserve coverage remains low while inflation is unanchored and stands at multi-year highs. The review discussions focused on assessing recent progress, updating the macroeconomic framework, and reaching understandings on a solid policy package to durably restore stability and achieve the program objectives.
Keywords:
central bank financing; NDF market; financing of the federal government; non-deliverable futures; policy credibility; Inflation; International reserves; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Premia on State-Contingent Sovereign Debt Instruments
Ms. Deniz O Igan
,
Mr. Taehoon Kim
, and
Antoine Levy
State-contingent debt instruments such as GDP-linked warrants have garnered attention as a potential tool to help debt-stressed economies smooth repayments over business cycles, yet very few studies of the empirical properties of these instruments exist. This paper develops a general f ramework to estimate the time-varying risk premium of a state-contingent sovereign debt instrument. Our estimation framework applied to GDP-linked warrants issued by Argentina, Greece, and Ukraine reveals three stylized facts: (i) the risk premium in state-contingent instruments is high and persistent; (ii) the risk premium exhibits a pro-cyclical pattern; and (iii) the liquidity premium is higher and more volatile than that for plain-vanilla government bonds issued by the same sovereign. We then present a model in which investors fear ambiguity and that can account for the cyclical properties of the risk premium.
Keywords:
State-contingent debt instruments; GDP-linked warrants; Risk premia; Procyclicality; liquidity premium; GDP-linked warrant; estimation framework; SCDI premium; Sovereign bonds; Securities; Bonds; Liquidity; Debt restructuring; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
The Role of State-Contingent Debt Instruments in Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Charles Cohen
,
S. M. Ali Abbas
,
Anthony Myrvin
,
Tom Best
,
Mr. Peter Breuer
,
Hui Miao
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Eriko Togo
The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a series of costly and inefficient sovereign debt restructurings. Any such restructurings will likely take place during a period of great economic uncertainty, which may lead to protracted negotiations between creditors and debtors over recovery values, and potentially even relapses into default post-restructuring. State-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) could play an important role in improving the outcomes of these restructurings.
Keywords:
Sovereign debt restructuring; Pandemic; COVID-19; Global financial crisis; Sovereign debt default; State-contingent debt instruments; GDP-linked debt; natural disasters clauses; debt sustainability; value recovery instruments; natural disaster clauses; reference variable; debt contract; investor preference; GLW payment; VRI payout; sector debt suspension; investor appetite; debt stock; Eurobond investor; trading partner; upside payout; investor participation; Natural disasters; Bonds; Debt restructuring; Securities; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?
Mr. Paolo Mauro
and
Jing Zhou
Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly, despite high government debts? Our paper undertakes an empirical analysis of interestgrowth differentials, using the largest historical database on average effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over up to 200 years. We document that negative differentials have occurred more often than not, in both advanced and emerging economies, and have often persisted for long historical stretches. Moreover, differentials are no higher prior to sovereign defaults than in normal times. Marginal (rather than average) government borrowing costs often rise abruptly and sharply, but just prior to default. Based on these results, our answer is: not really.
Keywords:
WP; emerging economy; debt ratio; emerging economies subsamples; interest-growth differentials; public debt; exchange rate; advanced economy; sovereign default; economic growth; Fiscal stance; Inflation; Real interest rates; Depreciation; Global; default episode; depreciation adjustment; government default
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration
Mr. Alejandro Izquierdo
,
Mr. Ruy Lama
,
Juan Pablo Medina
,
Jorge Puig
,
Daniel Riera-Crichton
,
Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont
, and
Guillermo Javier Vuletin
Over the last decade, empirical studies analyzing macroeconomic conditions that may affect the size of government spending multipliers have flourished. Yet, in spite of their obvious public policy importance, little is known about public investment multipliers. In particular, the clear theoretical implication that public investment multipliers should be higher (lower) the lower (higher) is the initial stock of public capital has not, to the best of our knowledge, been tested. This paper tackles this empirical challenge and finds robust evidence in favor of the above hypothesis: countries with a low initial stock of public capital (as a proportion of GDP) have significantly higher public investment multipliers than countries with a high initial stock of public capital. This key finding seems robust to the sample (European countries, U.S. states, and Argentine provinces) and to the identification method (Blanchard-Perotti, forecast errors, and instrumental variables). Our results thus suggest that public investment in developing countries would carry high returns.
Keywords:
WP; investment multiplier; Fiscal multiplier; Public investment; Stock of public capital; Crowding-in; multiplier estimate; public investment multiplier; multiplier calculation; government spending multiplier; Public investment spending; Stocks; Government consumption; Private investment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Bond Prices, Haircuts and Maturity
Mr. Tamon Asonuma
,
Dirk Niepelt
, and
Mr. Romain Ranciere
Rejecting a common assumption in the sovereign debt literature, we document that creditor losses (“haircuts”) during sovereign restructuring episodes are asymmetric across debt instruments. We code a comprehensive dataset on instrument-specific haircuts for 28 debt restructurings with private creditors in 1999–2015 and find that haircuts on shorter-term debt are larger than those on debt of longer maturity. In a standard asset pricing model, we show that increasing short-run default risk in the run-up to a restructuring episode can explain the stylized fact. The data confirms the predicted relation between perceived default risk, bond prices, and haircuts by maturity.
Keywords:
WP; coupon rate; Sovereign Debt; Default; Debt Restructuring; Bond Prices; Haircuts; Maturity; Default Probability; recovery rate; bond price differential; price difference; longer-term bond; term structure; bond maturity; Asset prices; Bonds; Securities; Debt default
Cover Policy Papers
State-Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns
International Monetary Fund
Background. The case for sovereign state-contingent debt instruments (SCDIs) as a countercyclical and risk-sharing tool has been around for some time and remains appealing; but take-up has been limited. Earlier staff work had advocated the use of growth-indexed bonds in emerging markets and contingent financial instruments in low-income countries. In light of recent renewed interest among academics, policymakers, and market participants—staff has analyzed the conceptual and practical issues SCDIs raise with a view to accelerate the development of self-sustaining markets in these instruments. The analysis has benefited from broad consultations with both private market participants and policymakers. The economic case for SCDIs. By linking debt service to a measure of the sovereign’s capacity to pay, SCDIs can increase fiscal space, and thus allow greater policy flexibility in bad times. They can also broaden the sovereign’s investor base, open opportunities for risk diversification for investors, and enhance the resilience of the international financial system. Should SCDI issuance rise to account for a large share of public debt, it could also significantly reduce the incidence and cost of sovereign debt crises. Some potential complications require mitigation: a high novelty and liquidity premium demanded by investors in the early stage of market development; adverse selection and moral hazard risks; undesirable pricing effects on conventional debt; pro-cyclical investor demand; migration of excessive risk to the private sector; and adverse political economy incentives.
Keywords:
PP; State-Contingent Debt instrument; investor; issuer; benchmark design; market development; real GDP; foreign currency; interest rate; debt service; Bonds; Sovereign bonds; Securities; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Defaults, External Debt, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics
Mr. Tamon Asonuma
Emerging countries experience real exchange rate depreciations around defaults. In this paper, we examine this observed pattern empirically and through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates bond issuances in local and foreign currencies, and endogenous determination of real exchange rate and default risk. Our quantitative analysis replicates the link between real exchange rate depreciation and default probability around defaults and moments of the real exchange rate that match the data. Prior to default, interactions of real exchange rate depreciation, originated from a sequence of low tradable goods shocks with the sovereign’s large share of foreign currency debt, trigger defaults. In post-default periods, the resulting output costs and loss of market access due to default lead to further real exchange rate depreciation.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; foreign currency; Sovereign Defaults; External Debt; Real Exchange Rate; Currency Composition of Debt; Bond Spreads; default probability; default choice; exchange rate depreciation; default period; GDP ratio; meaning appreciation; tradable goods; business cycle; Real exchange rates; Consumption; Depreciation; Currencies; Foreign currency debt; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Detailed Assessment of Observance of IOSCO Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation
International Monetary Fund
This assessment finds that Argentina has made significant progress to improve its securities regulatory system within the existing legal framework. This assessment finds areas that need to be improved. The reinforcement of supervision powers in accordance to international standards represents an immediate task. The assessment included a review of the main securities laws, executive decrees, and general and trading of securities. The government acknowledges that important challenges remain, and the assessments were noteworthy to identify many of them.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; capital market; The CNV; insider trading; continuous market; mutual fund; short term; securities law; public offering; commercial paper; job creation; internal audit; CNV rule; auction market; trading system; Securities; Securities regulation; Mutual funds; Securities markets; Futures markets; Global