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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On March 25, 2022, the IMF Executive Board approved a 30-month arrangement for Argentina supported by the Extended Fund Facility (2022 EFF). Amounting to US$44 billion (1,001 percent of quota), it was the second largest non-precautionary arrangement in the Fund’s history after the 2018 Stand-by Arrangement for Argentina (2018 SBA). Of the planned 10 reviews, eight were completed. The arrangement is set to expire at end-2024.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy
The IMF’s Exceptional Access Policy
Evaluation Report Dec 2024
Vivek B Arora
,
Miguel de Las Casas
,
Yasemin Bal Gündüz
,
Jérémie Cohen-Setton
,
Kelsie J Gentle
,
Jiakun Li
,
Carmen Rollins
, and
Sandra Saveikyte

Abstract

The evaluation assesses the EAP’s rationale, evolution, and implementation during the period since its adoption in 2002. It assesses whether the EAP has fulfilled the objectives that guided its creation, namely, shaping members’ and market expectations, providing clearer benchmarks for Board decisions on program design and exceptional access, safeguarding the Fund’s resources, and helping to ensure uniformity of treatment of members. The evaluation draws on background papers comprising both thematic and country studies that draw on experience with the 38 exceptional access programs completed through mid-2023. The thematic papers analyze the rationale and evolution of the EAP as well as the three building blocks of the policy: the exceptional access criteria, enhanced Board decision-making procedures, and ex post evaluations. The country papers comprise both cross-country studies and country-specific studies of the completed programs with Argentina (2018), Ecuador (2020), and Egypt (2020).

Keywords:
Exceptional access; IMF lending; safeguarding Fund resources; program design; uniformity of treatment; risk management; program success; EA program; surcharge rate; ToC of an Na arrangement; detailed Theory of Change; Debt sustainability; Reputational risk; Balance of payments need; Capital account crisis; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Initial Considerations For The Review Of Charges And The Surcharge Policy
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
On October 11, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of Charges and the Surcharge Policy. The review is part of a broader ongoing effort to ensure that the IMF’s lending policies remain fit for purpose to meet the evolving needs of the membership. Charges and surcharges are important elements of the IMF’s cooperative lending and risk-management framework, where all members contribute and all can benefit from support when needed. Together, they cover lending intermediation expenses, help accumulate reserves to protect against financial risks, and provide incentives for prudent and temporary borrowing. This provides a strong financial foundation that allows the IMF to extend vital balance of payments support on affordable terms to member countries when they need it most.



Against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment and high global interest rates, the Executive Board reached consensus on a comprehensive package of reforms that substantially reduces the cost of borrowing for members while safeguarding the IMF's financial capacity to support countries in need. The approved measures will lower IMF borrowing costs by about US$1.2 billion annually or reduce payments on the margin of the rate of charge as well as surcharges on average by 36 percent. The number of countries subject to surcharges in fiscal year 2026 is expected to fall from 20 to 13.



Key reforms include a reduction in the margin for the rate of charge, an increase in the threshold for level-based surcharges, a reduction in rate for time-based surcharges, an alignment of thresholds for commitment fees with annual and cumulative access limits for GRA lending facilities, and institution of regular reviews of surcharges.



The series of three papers informed the Executive Board’s first and second informal engagements (July and September 2024) and the formal meeting (October 2024) on this review.
Keywords:
General Resources Account; Charges; Margin for the basic rate of charge; Surcharges; Commitment Fees; Precautionary Balances; Income; multilayered framework; fund arrangement; surcharge rate; intermediation cost; fund's liquidity; borrowing cost; Credit; SDR interest rate; Balance of payments need; Credit risk; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
On March 20, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. The review took place somewhat ahead of the standard two-year cycle, in view of the imminent attainment of the current indicative medium-term indicative target of SDR 25 billion for the first time. Precautionary balances comprise the Fund’s general and special reserves. They are a key element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. Precautionary balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. The review was based on the assessment framework established in 2010, which uses an indicative range for precautionary balances, linked to a forward-looking measure of total IMF non-concessional credit, to guide decisions on adjusting the medium-term target over time. While financial risks remain high, they are broadly unchanged from the last review, taking into account the further accumulation of reserves and strengthening of some risk mitigants. Against this background, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to retain the current medium-term target of SDR 25 billion and increase the minimum floor from SDR 15 billion to SDR 20 billion. The Board also supported maintaining the biennial review cycle, with earlier reviews if warranted by developments that could materially affect the adequacy of precautionary balances.
Keywords:
Non-concessionary; Lending; Risks; Reserves; Credit; Mitigation; Provisioning; management framework; income risk; concentration risk; Fund credit; I. financial risks; demand scenario; lending portfolio; Credit risk; Income; Capital adequacy requirements; Market risk; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Stress and Economic Activity: Evidence from a New Worldwide Index
Hites Ahir
,
Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
,
Davide Furceri
,
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
, and
Hanbo Qi
This paper uses text analysis to construct a continuous financial stress index (FSI) for 110 countries over each quarter during the period 1967-2018. It relies on a computer algorithm along with human expert oversight and is thus easy to update. The new indicator has a larger country and time coverage and higher frequency than similar measures focusing on advanced economies. And it complements existing binary chronologies in that it can assess the severity of financial crises. We use the indicator to assess the impact of financial stress on the economy using both country- and firm-level data. Our main findings are fivefold: i) consistent with existing literature, we show an economically significant and persistent relationship between financial stress and output; ii) the effect is larger in emerging markets and developing economies and (iii) for higher levels of financial stress; iv) we deal with simultaneous causality by constructing a novel instrument—financial stress originating from other countries—using information from the text analysis, and show that, while there is clear evidence that financial stress harms economic activities, OLS estimates tend to overestimate the magnitude of this effect; (iv) we confirm the presence of an exogenous effect of financial stress through a difference-in-differences exercise and show that effects are larger for firms that are more financially constrained and less profitable.
Keywords:
Financial stress; text analysis; country reports; continuous indicator; country and firm economic activity.; firm economic activity; effect of FSI; financial crises episode; Financial soundness indicators; Banking crises; Reserve requirements; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Since completion of the fourth review, key program targets were missed reflecting the historic drought along with policy slippages. Against the backdrop of high inflation and rising balance of payments pressures, agreement was reached on a new policy package centered on rebuilding reserves and enhancing fiscal order. Continued strong policy implementation will be critical in the period ahead to safeguard stability and strengthen medium-term sustainability. Risks remain elevated, reflecting an increasingly fragile economic and social situation, rising program implementation difficulties, and election-related uncertainties. In addition, risks could intensify should the projected improvements in climate conditions not materialize, or external conditions worsen. Moreover, even with steadfast implementation, elements of the new policy package may still need to be recalibrated to secure the intended results.
Keywords:
recovery objective; electricity price; staff appraisal; waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria; production cost estimate; policy package; Exchange restrictions; Multiple currency practices; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Global; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Review Of The Adequacy Of The Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
On December 12, 2022, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. The review took place on the standard two-year cycle, after an interim review in December 2021. Precautionary balances comprise the Fund’s general and special reserves. They are a key element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. Precautionary balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. In conducting the review, the Executive Board applied the rules-based framework agreed in 2010. Precautionary balances have risen further since the 2021 interim review and coverage metrics have strengthened. At the same, credit and other financial risks have also increased. The pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate. Against this background, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s proposal to retain the current medium-term target of SDR 25 billion and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion. The Board also discussed the role of surcharges, which are primarily a component of the Fund’s risk management framework but also contribute to reserves accumulation.
Keywords:
concentration risk; D. financial risks; risk management framework; Fund credit; transparency policy; fund financial risks; Income; Credit; Credit risk; Credit ratings; Emergency assistance; Global; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere
Cover Policy Papers
Safeguards Assessments - 2022 Review of Experience
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper reviews experience with the safeguards assessment policy since the last review in 2015. The policy is subject to periodic reviews by the Executive Board. The policy’s main objective is to mitigate risks of misuse of Fund resources and misreporting of monetary data under Fund arrangements. Consistent with past reviews, an external panel of experts provided an independent perspective on the implementation of the policy.
Keywords:
IMF purchase; safeguards Assessments policy; Policy evolution; assessment finding; control framework; safeguards assessments policy; External audit; Internal audit; Auditing; Central bank governance; Central Bank digital currencies; Middle East and Central Asia; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Andrea Deghi
,
Mr. Salih Fendoglu
,
Tara Iyer
,
Mr. Hamid R Tabarraei
,
Yizhi Xu
, and
Mustafa Yenice
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought the relationship between sovereigns and banks—the so-called sovereign-bank nexus—in emerging market economies to the fore as bank holdings of domestic sovereign debt have surged. This paper examines the empirical relevance of this nexus to assess how it could amplify macro-financial stability risks. The findings show that an increase in sovereign credit risk can adversely affect banks’ balance sheets and credit supply, especially in countries with less-well-capitalized banking systems. Sovereign distress can also impact banks indirectly through the nonfinancial corporate sector by constraining their funding and reducing their capital expenditure. Notably, the effects on banks and corporates are strongly nonlinear in the size of the sovereign distress.
Keywords:
Sovereign-bank nexus; emerging markets; financial stability; sovereign risk; COVID-19; banking sector; corporate investment; outcome variable; Annex I. data description; summary statistics; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Capital adequacy requirements; Commercial banks; Credit default swap; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Episodes of domestic policy uncertainty and acute market pressures in mid- 2022, coupled with a more challenging global environment, necessitated firmer program implementation and stronger policy reaction to ensure macroeconomic stability, rebuild policy credibility, and safeguard program objectives. Initial decisive actions and strengthened commitments by the new economic team since early-August have started to stabilized markets, although the situation is fragile as reserve coverage remains low while inflation is unanchored and stands at multi-year highs. The review discussions focused on assessing recent progress, updating the macroeconomic framework, and reaching understandings on a solid policy package to durably restore stability and achieve the program objectives.
Keywords:
central bank financing; NDF market; financing of the federal government; non-deliverable futures; policy credibility; Inflation; International reserves; Government debt management; Global