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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 88 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review
Keywords:
FX policy framework; credit policy; monetary policy transmission; deficit target; expenditure growth; Inflation; Government debt management; Energy subsidies; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Interim Review of The Adequacy of The Fund’s Precautionary Balances
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
Precautionary balances are a key element of the Fund’s multilayered framework to mitigate financial risks. Overall financial risks remain elevated but have not increased significantly since the last review. Staff proposes to leave the medium-term target of SDR 25 billion, and the minimum floor of SDR 15 billion, unchanged at this time. With the projected increase in lending income, the pace of reserve accumulation is expected to remain adequate relative to the medium-term indicative target. The paper also reviews policy factors discussed in recent Board meetings that affect the level and accumulation of reserves.
Keywords:
risk management framework; transparency policy; D. financial risks; income volatility; totaling SDR; Income; Credit; Credit risk; Pension spending; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2021
Keywords:
IMF research perspective; government spending multiplier; R&D effort; IMF CSF; central bank financing; COVID-19; Bank credit; Fiscal stance; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?
Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
,
Mr. Luca A Ricci
,
Alejandro M. Werner
, and
Rene Zamarripa
Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we compare such forecasts with the outturns reported in the corresponding budget documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most countries, there is no general optimistic bias in the forecasts for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio (though there may be for the components); (ii) fiscal forecasts have improved for some countries over time, albeit they have worsened for others; (iii) in terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios are negatively associated with surprises to GDP growth; (v) lastly, budget balance rules seem to help contain the size of the fiscal forecast errors.
Keywords:
forecast bias; budget balance rule; GDP ratio; expenditure rule; revenue-to-GDP ratio; Fiscal stance; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
replacement rate; contribution rate; loan growth; price-earnings ratio; household income; household loan demand; Pension spending; Personal income tax; Income; Foreign exchange intervention; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper studies economic growth in Uruguay. Following the 2002 crisis, Uruguay had a remarkable economic recovery. The major growth acceleration in 2004–14 was explained by a combination of positive external factors, recovery from crisis, and emergence of new export sectors. With external factors no longer a support for growth, Uruguay needs to leverage its strengths to raise growth sustainably. Uruguay’s high level of institutional quality and social cohesion provides a stable container for growth. A comparison relative to its trading partners and high growth peers helps identify areas that Uruguay can further enhance to unleash its growth potential. These include, a strong, flexible, and equitable labor market, better education outcomes, higher private sector dynamism, and continued macro stability. Structural policy reforms on key constraints to the private sector will help realize the potential of the new export industries and set the stage for inclusive growth. A strong and credible macro policy framework is also essential for growth sustainability. Efforts to reduce debt, inflation, and dollarization and keep them at low levels will lay the foundations for structural reforms to flourish.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; infrastructure investment; text; youth unemployment; youth-to-adult unemployment gap; Labor indicator; wage council; labor market condition; Unemployment; Exports; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Infrastructure; Public investment spending; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs
Natalie Chen
and
Luciana Juvenal
We investigate theoretically and empirically how exporters adjust their markups across destinations depending on bilateral distance, tariffs, and the quality of their exports. Under the assumption that trade costs are both ad valorem and per unit, our model predicts that markups rise with distance and fall with tariffs, but these effects are heterogeneous and are smaller in magnitude for higher quality exports. We find strong support for the predictions of the model using a unique data set of Argentinean firm-level wine exports combined with experts wine ratings as a measure of quality.
Keywords:
WP; trade cost; FOB price; free on board; unit value; export price; wine export; Tariffs; Exports; Public expenditure review; Export prices; Demand elasticity; North America; Distance; export unit values; heterogeneity; markups; quality; trade costs; exports data
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration
Mr. Alejandro Izquierdo
,
Mr. Ruy Lama
,
Juan Pablo Medina
,
Jorge Puig
,
Daniel Riera-Crichton
,
Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont
, and
Guillermo Javier Vuletin
Over the last decade, empirical studies analyzing macroeconomic conditions that may affect the size of government spending multipliers have flourished. Yet, in spite of their obvious public policy importance, little is known about public investment multipliers. In particular, the clear theoretical implication that public investment multipliers should be higher (lower) the lower (higher) is the initial stock of public capital has not, to the best of our knowledge, been tested. This paper tackles this empirical challenge and finds robust evidence in favor of the above hypothesis: countries with a low initial stock of public capital (as a proportion of GDP) have significantly higher public investment multipliers than countries with a high initial stock of public capital. This key finding seems robust to the sample (European countries, U.S. states, and Argentine provinces) and to the identification method (Blanchard-Perotti, forecast errors, and instrumental variables). Our results thus suggest that public investment in developing countries would carry high returns.
Keywords:
WP; investment multiplier; Fiscal multiplier; Public investment; Stock of public capital; Crowding-in; multiplier estimate; public investment multiplier; multiplier calculation; government spending multiplier; Public investment spending; Stocks; Government consumption; Private investment; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mexico: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper shows that upgrading basic public infrastructure, and road infrastructure, raises productivity among firms, not only for large companies but also for Mexico’s large number of small and micro firms. This finding suggests that greater government spending on road infrastructure will support efforts to raise productivity and growth over the medium term. Mexico’s infrastructure quality has been on a steady decline. World Economic Forum indicators of perceived infrastructure quality show Mexico broadly in line with—or even outperforming—its emerging market and regional peers. Infrastructure quality and access are likely to weaken further at current investment rates. Spending trends compare particularly poorly to investment needs in the case of roads investment. According to the Global Competitiveness Index, the perceived quality of Mexico’s transportation infrastructure is broadly in line with peers. The note provides evidence of the role of infrastructure investment in boosting productivity.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; Mexico; cost; micro firm; cost cap; spending efficiency; firm productivity; firm's locality; physical capital; IMF FAD Expenditure Assessment Tool; Total expenditures; Education spending; Social protection spending; Capital spending; Global
Cover Policy Papers
FY2019 - Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 19 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
Keywords:
PP; budget; spend; cost; Fund; personnel cost; expenditures FY; fund policy; economic analysis; prudent budget management; policy work; output cost estimate; spending shortfall; office of budget; Budget planning and preparation; Total expenditures; Economic classification; Middle East and Central Asia; Western Hemisphere