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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper analyzes Argentina’s Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. The 2022 EFF came about in extremely difficult circumstances. Argentina was unable to regain external viability under the 2018 Stand-By Arrangement and faced large and concentrated repurchase obligations to the IMF. The combination of a gradualist reform strategy, large adverse shocks, and progressively weaker implementation resulted in outcomes substantially worse than in the baseline by end-2023. The program got off to a difficult start, with the surge in global commodity prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine feeding inflation expectations and creating additional fiscal spending needs that were met through direct and indirect monetization, further fueling inflation. A major course correction subsequently undertaken by the Milei government—notably a sharp fiscal consolidation, an upfront devaluation, and an end to monetary financing of the budget helped Argentina avert a full-blown crisis and make important strides toward macroeconomic stabilization. Overall, the 2022 EFF did not achieve its original macroeconomic objectives, but it was successful in easing the burden of Argentina’s financial obligations to the IMF by rescheduling repayments over 2026–2034, and may have helped Argentina avoid even worse outcomes in 2022–2023.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that in 2023, Uruguay confronted the impact of a once-in-a-century severe drought and external headwinds, but the economy remained resilient, owing to the authorities’ sound macroeconomic policies, the country’s political stability, and strong institutions. While economic growth decelerated in 2023, employment rose, and inflation fell within the target range. As inflationary pressures cooled off, the Banco Central del Uruguay started lowering its monetary policy rate in April 2023, while maintaining a contractionary stance. The economy is expected to strongly rebound in 2024, underpinned by the recovery of agricultural exports, increased cellulose production, easing of financial conditions and robust private consumption. Main risks are broadly balanced. Overall fiscal and external risks are low. The post-drought growth momentum creates opportunities for reinvigorating fiscal consolidation efforts. The crafting of the next five-year budget law opens an opportunity to recalibrate the fiscal rule targets to place debt on a downward path. Refinements to the fiscal rule would help consolidate recent credibility gains. Monetary policy should remain contractionary to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay within the target range in a sustained manner. Structural reforms are key to unlock potential growth, create policy space to preserve the country’s safety net and social cohesion, and support favorable sovereign debt ratings.
Keywords:
government bond bond market; inflation expectation; BCU inflation target; data ROSC reassessment; support policy continuity; Policy issue; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Fiscal councils; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Eight Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Sustaining progress requires improving the quality of fiscal adjustment, taking initial steps toward an enhanced monetary and foreign exchange policy framework, and implementing reforms to unlock growth, formal employment, and investment. Greater focus on micro-level reforms will help support the recovery and boost potential growth. The proposed reforms aimed at improving competitiveness, increasing labor market flexibility, and improving the predictability of the regulatory framework for investment, are steps in the right direction, and their approval and careful implementation should be a priority. Risks, although moderated, are still elevated, requiring agile policymaking. Contingency planning will remain critical, and policies will need to continue to adapt to evolving outcomes to safeguard stability and ensure all program objectives continue to be met.
Keywords:
FX policy; BCRA FX purchase; FX gap; cost recovery; FX access tax; Exchange restrictions; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper studies renewable energy and attempts to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) impact and assesses the role of policies in Chile. Chile has a comparative advantage in renewable energy. IMF estimates show that replacing coal power with solar and wind power, as announced by the government, could boost the long-term GDP level by at least 1 percentage point. The analysis indicates that the benefits of having targeted support for the transmission of electricity exceed costs. An additional benefit is the greater economic resilience to abrupt increases in coal and fuel prices that can have large negative impacts on the economy. A key constraint for the renewable energy sector is currently the transmission from where it is produced to where it is used. A cost-benefit analysis shows that state support industries, such as electricity transmission, may have economic benefits that outweigh the costs.
Keywords:
GDP impact; solvency risk; Chilean bank; Fintech firm; cybersecurity risk; Electricity; Cyber risk; Fintech; Energy sector; Financial inclusion; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Fifth and Sixth Reviews under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Rephasing of Access, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Since completion of the fourth review, key program targets were missed reflecting the historic drought along with policy slippages. Against the backdrop of high inflation and rising balance of payments pressures, agreement was reached on a new policy package centered on rebuilding reserves and enhancing fiscal order. Continued strong policy implementation will be critical in the period ahead to safeguard stability and strengthen medium-term sustainability. Risks remain elevated, reflecting an increasingly fragile economic and social situation, rising program implementation difficulties, and election-related uncertainties. In addition, risks could intensify should the projected improvements in climate conditions not materialize, or external conditions worsen. Moreover, even with steadfast implementation, elements of the new policy package may still need to be recalibrated to secure the intended results.
Keywords:
recovery objective; electricity price; staff appraisal; waivers of nonobservance of performance criteria; production cost estimate; policy package; Exchange restrictions; Multiple currency practices; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Fourth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Argentina’s Fourth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waiver for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Achieving the 2023 primary fiscal deficit target of 1.9 percent of gross domestic product remains essential to support disinflation and reserve accumulation, alleviate financing pressures, and strengthen debt sustainability. Timely implementation of high-quality measures, particularly improving the targeting of energy subsidies and social assistance, will help offset lower export taxes due to the drought, protect priority infrastructure and social spending, and secure the fiscal targets. “Real interest rates should remain sufficiently positive to tackle high inflation and support demand for peso assets. On the domestic financing front, prudent efforts will be needed to mitigate near-term rollover risks and mobilize net financing, while limiting the build-up of vulnerabilities and protecting debt sustainability.
Keywords:
waiver of nonobservance; pension moratorium; financing strategy; nonobservance of the performance criteria; step-up interest rate structure; Inflation; Natural disasters; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Early decisive policy implementation by the new economic team was critical to stabilizing markets and begin rebuilding confidence in the run-up to the second review. Domestic demand has since slowed in response to tighter macroeconomic policies, with high frequency indicators pointing to a further moderation in inflation, a contraction in goods imports, and improvements in the trade balance. Nonetheless, and against a more challenging external and domestic backdrop, the situation remains fragile. Inflation is still high and unanchored, reserves are low, and confidence needs further strengthening. Moreover, social discontent has risen amid spending restraint and some decline in real wages. Review discussions focused on strengthening macroeconomic policies to safeguard stability and achieve program objectives, especially a durable reduction in inflation and improvement in reserve coverage.
Keywords:
market inflation expectation; fund staff calculation; Net International reserves; reference rate; price inflation; Inflation; Multiple currency practices; Exchange restrictions; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Episodes of domestic policy uncertainty and acute market pressures in mid- 2022, coupled with a more challenging global environment, necessitated firmer program implementation and stronger policy reaction to ensure macroeconomic stability, rebuild policy credibility, and safeguard program objectives. Initial decisive actions and strengthened commitments by the new economic team since early-August have started to stabilized markets, although the situation is fragile as reserve coverage remains low while inflation is unanchored and stands at multi-year highs. The review discussions focused on assessing recent progress, updating the macroeconomic framework, and reaching understandings on a solid policy package to durably restore stability and achieve the program objectives.
Keywords:
central bank financing; NDF market; financing of the federal government; non-deliverable futures; policy credibility; Inflation; International reserves; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review
Keywords:
FX policy framework; credit policy; monetary policy transmission; deficit target; expenditure growth; Inflation; Government debt management; Energy subsidies; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Staff Report for 2022 Article IV Consultation and request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund-Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Supplements
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Against the background of a decade of declining per-capita income and high inflation, the Article IV consultation focused on policies to begin to tackle Argentina’s underlying impediments to sustained growth and low and stable inflation. Avoiding boom-bust dynamics suggests the need for greater emphasis on policies to promote net exports and mobilize domestic saving to finance much-needed investment. Reversing the high degree of financial dollarization, however, will take time and will require a durable commitment to tackle fiscal dominance and strengthen debt sustainability. Meanwhile, addressing budget rigidities is essential to improve Argentina’s resilience to shocks, while reorienting public spending towards investment and innovation is critical to support productivity and reduce intergenerational inequities. Sustained political and social consensus is necessary for policy predictability and to balance demands from financing Argentina’s large social welfare system while also encouraging private investment and formal employment.
Keywords:
IFC investment activity; EFF arrangement; portfolio investment position; deep-seated challenge; peak fund exposure; policy implementation risk; Inflation; Debt service; Government debt management; Global; Caribbean