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Western Hemisphere > Argentina

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper analyzes Argentina’s Ex-post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2022 Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. The 2022 EFF came about in extremely difficult circumstances. Argentina was unable to regain external viability under the 2018 Stand-By Arrangement and faced large and concentrated repurchase obligations to the IMF. The combination of a gradualist reform strategy, large adverse shocks, and progressively weaker implementation resulted in outcomes substantially worse than in the baseline by end-2023. The program got off to a difficult start, with the surge in global commodity prices due to Russia’s war in Ukraine feeding inflation expectations and creating additional fiscal spending needs that were met through direct and indirect monetization, further fueling inflation. A major course correction subsequently undertaken by the Milei government—notably a sharp fiscal consolidation, an upfront devaluation, and an end to monetary financing of the budget helped Argentina avert a full-blown crisis and make important strides toward macroeconomic stabilization. Overall, the 2022 EFF did not achieve its original macroeconomic objectives, but it was successful in easing the burden of Argentina’s financial obligations to the IMF by rescheduling repayments over 2026–2034, and may have helped Argentina avoid even worse outcomes in 2022–2023.
Keywords:
program ownership; IMF view; disinflation process; Policy strategy; lending decision; risk tolerance; Fiscal consolidation; International reserves; Inflation; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Safeguards Assessments - 2022 Review of Experience
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper reviews experience with the safeguards assessment policy since the last review in 2015. The policy is subject to periodic reviews by the Executive Board. The policy’s main objective is to mitigate risks of misuse of Fund resources and misreporting of monetary data under Fund arrangements. Consistent with past reviews, an external panel of experts provided an independent perspective on the implementation of the policy.
Keywords:
IMF purchase; safeguards Assessments policy; Policy evolution; assessment finding; control framework; safeguards assessments policy; External audit; Internal audit; Auditing; Central bank governance; Central Bank digital currencies; Middle East and Central Asia; Western Hemisphere; Asia and Pacific; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Episodes of domestic policy uncertainty and acute market pressures in mid- 2022, coupled with a more challenging global environment, necessitated firmer program implementation and stronger policy reaction to ensure macroeconomic stability, rebuild policy credibility, and safeguard program objectives. Initial decisive actions and strengthened commitments by the new economic team since early-August have started to stabilized markets, although the situation is fragile as reserve coverage remains low while inflation is unanchored and stands at multi-year highs. The review discussions focused on assessing recent progress, updating the macroeconomic framework, and reaching understandings on a solid policy package to durably restore stability and achieve the program objectives.
Keywords:
central bank financing; NDF market; financing of the federal government; non-deliverable futures; policy credibility; Inflation; International reserves; Government debt management; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Latin America—Through the Lens of History
Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome
and
Samuel Pienknagura
We study the link between central bank independence and inflation by providing narrative and empiricial evidence based on Latin America’s experience over the past 100 years. We present a novel historical dataset of central bank independence for 17 Latin American countries and recount the rocky journey traveled by Latin America to achieve central bank independence and price stability. After their creation as independent institutions, central bank independence was eroded in the 1930s at the time of the Great Depression and following the abandonement of the gold exchange standard. Then, by the 1940s, central banks turned into de facto development banks under the aegis of governments, sawing the seeds for high inflation. It took the high inflation episodes of the 1970s and 1980s and the associated major decline in real income, and growing social discontent, to grant central banks political and operational independence to focus on fighting inflation starting in the 1990s. The empirical evidence confirms the strong negative association between central bank independence and inflation and finds that improvements in independence result in a steady decline in inflation. It also shows that high levels of central bank independence are associated with reductions in the likelihood of high inflation episodes, especially when accompanied by reductions in central bank financing to the central government.
Keywords:
Central Bank Independence; Inflation; Latin America; inflation episode; independence result; CBI index; gold exchange; finance government expenditure; inflation distribution; executive branch; fiscal dominance; country level; inflation expectation; term of office; credit to the government; inflation inertia; Latin American country; Central bank autonomy; Central bank legislation; Bank credit; Central bank organization; Central America; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review
Keywords:
FX policy framework; credit policy; monetary policy transmission; deficit target; expenditure growth; Inflation; Government debt management; Energy subsidies; Reserves accumulation; Global
Cover IEO Annual Report 2021
IEO Annual Report 2021
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

IEO Annual Report 2021

Keywords:
IEO Annual Report; IEO work program; IEO evaluation reports; IMF programs; growth optimism; austerity bias; structural conditionality; debt sustainability; fiscal policy; exchange rate policy; IEO evaluation; IMF taxonomy; IMF's capital account work; MIP implementation; exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions; Capital flows; COVID-19; Capital account; Capital flow management; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Safeguards Assessment—2019 Update
Mr. George M Kabwe
,
Elie Chamoun
,
Riaan van Greuning
,
Mowele Mohlala
, and
Ms. Julia Cardoso
Safeguards assessments are a key pillar of the risk management arrangements for IMF lending. Safeguards assessments aim to mitigate the risks of misuse of Fund resources and misreporting of program monetary data under Fund arrangements. Safeguards assessment reports are confidential and therefore the IMF Executive Board is provided with a periodic report on safeguards activities on a biennial basis, in addition to high-level summaries in member country staff reports on key findings and recommendations. This update on safeguards activity covers the period May 2017 to end-April 2019 (the period).
Keywords:
PP; central bank; governance; audit; risk management framework; lending; governance arrangement; central bank participant; central bank autonomy provision; central bank safeguards framework; central bank authority; Internal audit; Central bank governance; External audit; Auditing; Monetary statistics; Global; Middle East; Western Hemisphere; West Africa; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Review Of The Fund’s Income Position For FY 2019 And FY 2020
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper reviews the Fund’s income position for FY 2019 and FY 2020. The paper updates projections provided in April 2018 and proposes decisions for the current year. The paper includes a comprehensive review of the Fund’s income position as required under Rule I-6(4). No change is proposed in the margin for the rate of charge that was established under this rule in April 2018 for the period FY 2019–20.
Keywords:
PP; fy; position; SDR; income position; FY 2018; income discussion; SDR exchange rate; meeting FY; income of the arrangement; sensitivity analysis; intermediation cost; lower-than-expected surcharge income; income of the Endowment Subaccount; SDR billion; Personal income; SDR interest rate; Reserves accumulation; Arrears; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Argentina: Economic Developments; February 27, 2014
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This report presents IMF staff analysis based on publicly available information through end- January 2014. Following its 2002 financial crisis, Argentina experienced a strong economic recovery, helped by an expansionary policy stance, an undervalued exchange rate, high and rising international prices for its key exports (soy, corn), and lower debt service payments. However, in 2013, balance-of-payments pressures intensified amid continuing high inflation. Economic growth recovered in 2013, though weakened sharply in the second half of the year. Inflation remained high. Financial deepening increased somewhat and financial stability was preserved despite the high inflation and growing external imbalances. Fiscal policy in 2013 was more expansionary than in the previous year.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; central bank; exchange rate; private sector; foreign exchange; real GDP; trade balance; nominal GDP; Banco Central de la Republica Argentina; federal government; wage-price-depreciation spiral; export products; car export; charter reform; International reserves; Public sector; Exports; Exchange rates; South America; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Banking in Latin America: From the Gold Standard to the Golden Years
Mr. Luis Ignacio Jácome
This paper provides a brief historical journey of central banking in Latin America to shed light on the debate about monetary policy in the post-global financial crisis period. The paper distinguishes three periods in Latin America’s central bank history: the early years, when central banks endorsed the gold standard and coped with the collapse of this monetary system; a second period, in which central banks turned into development banks under the aegis of governments at the expense of increasing inflation; and the “golden years,” when central banks succeeded in preserving price stability in an environment of political independence. The paper concludes by cautioning against overburdening central banks in Latin America with multiple mandates as this could end up undermining their hard-won monetary policy credibility.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; government; country; gold standard; Latin America; central banks; inflation; U.S. dollar; adjustable peg; financing to the government; central bank financing; government financing; inflation rate; central bank independence; central banks in Latin America; International reserves; Currencies; Central bank legislation; Central America; Global