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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Angola achieved macroeconomic stabilization amid a very difficult environment in 2020 and growth began to recover in 2021. The recovery picked up pace in 2022, aided by high oil prices. President João Lourenço was reelected in August 2022. Angola continues to face significant challenges, including debt vulnerabilities and the need to diversify the economy as oil production declines over the long term. The authorities’ reform agenda, including their upcoming 2023–27 National Development Plan, is focused on these challenges.
Constance de Soyres, Reina Kawai, and Mengxue Wang
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an unanticipated increase in public debt on the real GDP level is generally negative and varies depending on other fundamental characteristics. Specifically, an unanticipated increase in the public debt to GDP ratio hurts real GDP level for countries that have (i) a high initial debt level or (ii) a rising debt trajectory over the five preceding years. On the contrary, an unanticipated increase in public debt boosts real GDP for countries that have (iii) a low-income level or (iv) completed the HIPC debt relief initiative.