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Africa > Angola

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Discussões sobre a primeira avaliação pós-financiamento-Comunicado de imprensa; Relatório da Equipa Técnica
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
No seguimento da estabilidade macroeconómica alcançada num contexto especialmente difícil em 2020, a recuperação que teve início em 2021 prosseguiu em 2022 favorecida pelos elevados preços do petróleo. O segundo mandato do Presidente João Lourenço, – iniciado no ano passado – centra-se na promoção da diversificação e do crescimento não petrolífero. Porém, Angola enfrenta desafios significativos em 2023, designadamente o agravamento das perspectivas para os preços do petróleo, a diminuição da produção petrolífera, um contexto externo altamente incerto e a necessidade de reverter a grande flexibilização orçamental do ano passado. Esta última será apoiada pela conclusão integral da reforma dos subsídios aos combustíveis, anunciada pelo governo em 1 de junho de 2023. A capacidade de reembolso de Angola ao FMI é adequada, embora sujeita a riscos elevados. No caso de se materializar um cenário adverso que envolva um choque prolongado dos preços do petróleo, os indicadores de reembolso deteriorar-se-ão, mas permanecerão adequados.
Keywords:
fuel subsidy reform; oil price shock; diversification plan; diversification agenda; public finance; IMF's transparency policy; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Oil sector; Global; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Divided We Fall: Differential Exposure to Geopolitical Fragmentation in Trade
Shushanik Hakobyan, Sergii Meleshchuk, and Robert Zymek
This paper assesses differences in countries’ macroeconomic exposure to trade fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Estimating structural gravity regressions for sector-level bilateral trade flows between 185 countries, we find that differences in individual countries’ geopolitical ties act as a barrier to trade, with the largest effects concentrated in a few sectors (notably, food and high-end manufacturing). Consequently, countries’ exposure via trade to geopolitical shifts varies with their market size, comparative advantage, and foreign policy alignments. Introducing our estimates into a dynamic many-country, many-sector quantitative trade model, we show that geoeconomic fragmentation—modelled as an increased sensitivity of trade costs to geopolitics and greater geopolitical polarization—generally leads to lower trade and incomes. However, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) tend to see the largest impacts: real per-capita income losses for the median EMDE in Asia are 80 percent larger, and for the median EMDE in Africa 120 percent larger, than for the median advanced economy. This suggests that the costs of trade fragmentation could fall disproportionally on countries that can afford it the least.
Keywords:
Geoeconomic fragmentation; trade barriers; gravity; emerging markets and developing economies; trade model; trade cost; trade fragmentation; foreign policy alignment; Plurilateral trade; Trade balance; Trade agreements; Income; Middle East and Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: First Post-Financing Assessment Discussions-Press Release
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
After achieving macroeconomic stability amid a difficult environment in 2020, the recovery that began in 2021 continued through 2022, aided by high oil prices. President João Lourenço second term – achieved last year – is focused on boosting diversification and non-oil growth. However, Angola faces significant challenges in 2023, including a worsening outlook for oil prices, lower oil production, a highly uncertain external environment, and the need to unwind last year’s large fiscal loosening. The latter will be aided by the full completion of the fuel subsidy reform announced by the government on June 1, 2023. Angola’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate though subject to high risks. In the event of an adverse scenario involving a prolonged oil price shock, repayment indicators would weaken but remain adequate.
Keywords:
fuel subsidy reform; oil price shock; diversification plan; diversification agenda; public finance; IMF's transparency policy; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Oil sector; Global; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Angola’s economy continued to recover from the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in 2022, supported by higher oil prices, improved oil production, and resilient non-oil activity. Non-oil growth was broad based despite a challenging external environment. Growth is estimated at 3.5 percent for 2023. The non-oil primary deficit increased in 2022 following higher-than-budgeted capital expenditure and higher-than-expected fuel subsidy costs. Nonetheless, the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio fell by an estimated 17.5 percentage points of GDP to an estimated 66.1 percent of GDP, aided by a stronger exchange rate. The current account is estimated to have remained in a large surplus in 2022, while foreign currency reserve coverage remained adequate. Overall growth is expected to continue in 2023 and reach about 4 percent in the medium term, as the authorities’ structural reform agenda supports the non-oil sector. Inflation should continue its gradually declining path, reaching single digits in 2024. The 2023 budget envisions a resumption of fiscal adjustment, which is necessary to approach the authorities’ twin medium-term fiscal and debt targets and guard against debt vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
staff BOP projection; staff appraisal; asset declaration regime; governance reform; reform agenda; Oil prices; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Consulta de 2022 ao Abrigo do Artigo IV-Comunicado de Imprensa; Relatório da Equipa Técnica; Anexo Informativo; e Declaração do Director Executivo para Angola
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Angola alcançou a estabilização macroeconómica num contexto de grande adversidade em 2020. O crescimento começou a recuperar em 2021. A recuperação acelerou em 2022, apoiada pelos elevados preços do petróleo. O Presidente João Lourenço foi reeleito em agosto de 2022. Angola continua a enfrentar enormes desafios, desde as vulnerabilidades da dívida até à necessidade de diversificar a economia, num cenário de declínio da produção petrolífera a longo prazo. A agenda de reformas das autoridades, nomeadamente o próximo Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento de 2023–27, centra-se nestes desafios.
Keywords:
staff BOP projection; staff appraisal; asset declaration regime; governance reform; reform agenda; Oil prices; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores development planning, sustainable development goals (SDG) progress, and fiscal space in Angola. Economic diversification and poverty reduction in Angola will require more and better-quality spending on human and physical capital and, thus, greater fiscal space. Spending in these areas has historically been lower relative to lower middle-income country peers, although broadly in line with other SSA countries, and with weak outcomes. Boosting human and physical capital with the goal of economic diversification and poverty reduction in mind will likely be a primary focus of the authorities’ 2023-27 National Development Plan. This paper finds that achieving those goals, as benchmarked by the SDGs, will entail greater and more targeted investment, with the largest spending needs falling around education and health. As such, creating additional fiscal space, following through on the structural fiscal reform agenda, and attracting private investment will all be critical components of improving the level and quality of development spending in Angola.
Keywords:
SDG progress; D. SDG performance; financing framework; growth disorder; guarantee scheme; Credit; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Health care spending; Total expenditures; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Temas Seleccionados
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Temas Seleccionados
Keywords:
SDG progress; D. SDG performance; financing framework; growth disorder; guarantee scheme; Credit; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Health care spending; Total expenditures; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Debt and Real GDP: Revisiting the Impact
Constance de Soyres, Reina Kawai, and Mengxue Wang
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an unanticipated increase in public debt on the real GDP level is generally negative and varies depending on other fundamental characteristics. Specifically, an unanticipated increase in the public debt to GDP ratio hurts real GDP level for countries that have (i) a high initial debt level or (ii) a rising debt trajectory over the five preceding years. On the contrary, an unanticipated increase in public debt boosts real GDP for countries that have (iii) a low-income level or (iv) completed the HIPC debt relief initiative.
Keywords:
Sovereign Debt; Growth; IMF predictions; public debt shock; GDP ratio; public debt trajectory; evolution of public debt; level classification; Debt relief; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: 2021 Article IV Consultation and Six Review under the Extended Arrangement of the Extended Fund Facility and Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion; Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Policies since 2018 have stabilized the economy in a very difficult environment. Yet many challenges remain for sustainable development, especially high debt and oil dependency. The authorities remain committed to continued reforms.
Keywords:
national bank of Angola; minority stake; monetary policy stance; state reform; EFF arrangement; Oil prices; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: 2021 Article IV Consultation and Six Review under the Extended Arrangement of the Extended Fund Facility and Request for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion; Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Policies since 2018 have stabilized the economy in a very difficult environment. Yet many challenges remain for sustainable development, especially high debt and oil dependency. The authorities remain committed to continued reforms.
Keywords:
national bank of Angola; minority stake; monetary policy stance; state reform; EFF arrangement; Oil prices; Inflation; Global