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Africa

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Angola: Discussões sobre a primeira avaliação pós-financiamento-Comunicado de imprensa; Relatório da Equipa Técnica
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
No seguimento da estabilidade macroeconómica alcançada num contexto especialmente difícil em 2020, a recuperação que teve início em 2021 prosseguiu em 2022 favorecida pelos elevados preços do petróleo. O segundo mandato do Presidente João Lourenço, – iniciado no ano passado – centra-se na promoção da diversificação e do crescimento não petrolífero. Porém, Angola enfrenta desafios significativos em 2023, designadamente o agravamento das perspectivas para os preços do petróleo, a diminuição da produção petrolífera, um contexto externo altamente incerto e a necessidade de reverter a grande flexibilização orçamental do ano passado. Esta última será apoiada pela conclusão integral da reforma dos subsídios aos combustíveis, anunciada pelo governo em 1 de junho de 2023. A capacidade de reembolso de Angola ao FMI é adequada, embora sujeita a riscos elevados. No caso de se materializar um cenário adverso que envolva um choque prolongado dos preços do petróleo, os indicadores de reembolso deteriorar-se-ão, mas permanecerão adequados.
Keywords:
fuel subsidy reform; oil price shock; diversification plan; diversification agenda; public finance; IMF's transparency policy; Oil prices; Energy subsidies; Oil sector; Global; Southern Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Gambia: 2023 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Gambia
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Gambia is consolidating its democratic and economic transformation. It recently organized peaceful and transparent presidential, parliamentary, and local elections. The previous 2020-23 ECF arrangement accompanied the country’s reforms and helped alleviate the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The end of the electoral cycle offers a window of opportunity for the next two to three years to further strengthen economic reforms and promote inclusive growth.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Gambia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, Requests for Augmentations of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria, and First Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Kenyan economy remains resilient amid a confluence of global, regional, environmental, and domestic political risks. These factors, including costly and uncertain international bond market access for frontier market economies in an environment of “higher for longer” global interest rates, are adding to Kenya’s balance of payments and fiscal financing needs despite policy efforts to sustain domestic and external balances. The authorities’ EFF/ECF-supported program, approved in April 2021 and extended by 10 months in July 2023 to April 2025, continues to evolve to address the emerging challenges, including to restore market confidence while incorporating additional policy actions to reduce debt vulnerabilities, a key objective of the program. The program also endeavors to bolster Kenya’s medium-term prospects by enhancing fiscal risk management, strengthening external buffers, and improving the governance framework.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Mozambique: Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modification of the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause, Waiver of Nonobservance of Quantitative Performance Criterion, Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Mozambique
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economy continues growing steadily. Inflation pressures have declined sharply reflecting lower food and fuel prices. A fiscal correction is ongoing following the fiscal slippages from implementation challenges related to the single salary scale adopted in 2022. The security situation in the north has improved and general elections are planned for October 2024. Mozambique is facing tight domestic financing conditions combined with an external funding squeeze.
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cabo Verde: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cabo Verde
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Cabo Verde has weathered the recent shocks well, and the authorities have been successful in maintaining macro-financial stability, supported by international partners. Despite a challenging global environment, Cabo Verde’s economy rebounded strongly in 2021 and 2022 and continues its strong macroeconomic performance in 2023.The near-term growth outlook is favorable despite some downside risks. Inflation is decelerating. The country is politically stable. However, Cabo Verde still faces substantial vulnerabilities. The public debt-to-GDP ratio though declining is still above pre-pandemic levels. Climate change poses a major threat, as Cabo Verde is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world.
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work
Mauro Cazzaniga, Florence Jaumotte, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Augustus J Panton, Carlo Pizzinelli, Emma J Rockall, and Marina Mendes Tavares
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy, especially in the realm of labor markets. Advanced economies will experience the benefits and pitfalls of AI sooner than emerging market and developing economies, largely due to their employment structure focused on cognitive-intensive roles. There are some consistent patterns concerning AI exposure, with women and college-educated individuals more exposed but also better poised to reap AI benefits, and older workers potentially less able to adapt to the new technology. Labor income inequality may increase if the complementarity between AI and high-income workers is strong, while capital returns will increase wealth inequality. However, if productivity gains are sufficiently large, income levels could surge for most workers. In this evolving landscape, advanced economies and more developed emerging markets need to focus on upgrading regulatory frameworks and supporting labor reallocation, while safeguarding those adversely affected. Emerging market and developing economies should prioritize developing digital infrastructure and digital skills
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence; Labor Market; Job Displacement; Income Inequality; Advanced Economies; Emerging Market Economies; Low-Income Developing Countries; AI preparedness index; AI benefit; AI exposure; ICT employment share; AI adoption; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Income; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Congo: Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria, Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Debt Sustainability Analysis; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The third review of a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement (SDR 324 million, 200 percent of quota) was concluded on July 19, 2023. The momentum in economic growth continues, while rising production costs push up inflation. In the first half of 2023, overperformance in oil and non-oil revenue, combined with tighter budget execution, improved the non-oil primary fiscal deficit by 0.6 percent of non-oil GDP compared to the Third Review (CR 23/271). However, higher-than-expected external debt service—due to contractual contingencies to oil prices—tightened the adjusted target for the non-oil basic primary balance, implying a miss of the target by 0.9 percent of non-oil GDP. Congo also accumulated less deposits at BEAC than initially targeted. Despite external arrears remaining below the de-minimis threshold, public debt is assessed as sustainable but “in distress” due to frequent accumulation of new external arrears and uncertainty about the size of domestic arrears.
Keywords:
PC table; staff appraisal; reorganization of the CCA; quantitative Performance Criteria; waivers of nonobservance; oil revenue; Arrears; Fiscal stance; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Automation and Welfare: The Role of Bequests and Education
Manuk Ghazanchyan, Alexei Goumilevski, and Alex Mourmouras
This paper examines the welfare effects of automation in neoclassical growth models with and without intergenerational transfers. In a standard overlapping generations model without such transfers, improvements in automation technologies that would lower welfare can be mitigated by shifts in labor supply related to demographics or pandemics. With perfect intergenerational transfers based on altruism, automation could raise the well-being of all generations. With imperfect altruism, fiscal transfers (universal basic income) and public policies to expand access to education opportunities can alleviate much of the negative effect of automation.
Keywords:
Automation; Aging; Altruism; Fiscal Policy; Education; Overlapping Generations; appendix B. Replicating Kotlikoff; automation technology; IMF working papers; welfare effect; S model; production function; Income; Human capital; Consumption; Global