Archived Series > World Economic and Financial Surveys
Abstract
Global Monitoring Report 2008, the fifth in an annual series, is essential reading for those who wish to follow the global development agenda and debate in 2008. The year marks the midpoint toward the 2015 deadline for achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It is also an important year to work toward a consensus on how the world is going to respond to the challenge of climate change, building on the foundation laid at the Bali climate change conference in December 2007. The report spans this agenda. It provides a comprehensive assessment of progress toward the MDGs and related policies and actions. It addresses the challenge of climate change and environmental sustainability and assesses its implications for development. The report's assessment of MDGs at midpoint presents a mixed picture, one of both significant progress and formidable challenges. The first MDG, reducing extreme poverty by half, is likely to be met at the global level, thanks to a remarkable surge in global economic growth over the past decade. But, on current trends, the human development MDGs are unlikely to be met. Prospects are gravest for the goals of reducing child and maternal mortality, but shortfalls are also likely in the primary school completion. nutrition, and sanitation MDGs. The potential effects of climate change compound the challenge of achieving the development goals and sustaining progress. The report's messages are clear: urgent action is needed to help the world get back on track to achieve the MDGs; and urgent action is also needed to combat climate change that threatens the well-being of all countries, but particularly of poor countries and poor people. The goals of development and environmental sustainability are closely related, and the paths to those goals have important synergies.
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This study reviews major issues and developments in trade and their implications for the work of the IMF. Volume I, The Uruguay Round and Beyond: Principal Issues, gives an overview of the issues and developments in the world trading system. Volume II, The Uruguay Round and Beyond: Background Papers, presents detailed background papers on selected trade and trade-related issues. This study updates previous studies published under the title Issues and Development in International Trade Policy.
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This paper reviews major issues and developments in the trade area and outlines the challenges governments face as they seek to liberalize trade in the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and address new trade issues. In industrial countries, the reorientation of policies was most apparent in steps taken to liberalize financial markets and foreign direct investment, privatize public enterprises, and deregulate services, particularly in the transportation and communication sectors. Among developing countries, a growing number recognized the merits of outward, market-oriented policies and took steps to liberalize their trade regimes and open their economies to international competition. By and large, the increased focus on market principles in industrial countries did not carry over to trade and industrial policies or, most notable, to the agricultural sector. Despite strong growth performance in 1983–1989, little progress was made in rolling back the protective barriers that had risen during the preceding recessionary period; protection persists in agriculture and declining sectors and has spread to newer high-tech areas.
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This study prepared by the Commodities Division of the Research Department reviews and analyzes the developments in commodity markets.
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This paper discusses commodity prices might serve as a useful leading indicator of inflation, based on the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. They thus may have a tendency to respond relatively quickly, especially in response to monetary disturbances. Estimation of alternative commodity-price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, was not fully successful. The commodity prices do have a useful role to play as an aid in predicting inflation, so long as one is careful to interpret the relationships qualitatively and in the context of more general macroeconomic developments. The ratio of consumer to commodity price movements’ changes over time, and the relative price of commodities undergoes long sustained swings; nonetheless, the qualitative linkages are quite evident in the data. Perhaps most importantly, turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.
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This paper provides an analysis of the market developments in 1988 with respect to primary commodities and the outlook for these commodities in the near and medium term. Attention is focused on the major nonfuel primary commodities traded in international markets. Movements in the overall price index and in price indices for the major groups of commodities have been mirrored by an inverse movement in stocks of commodities. Beginning-of-year stocks of all nonfuel commodities—measured in terms of months of consumption—increased during the first half of the 1980s and peaked in 1986. Movements in primary commodity prices convey important information in several ways: they signal changes in the major source of export earnings for most developing countries; they indicate changes in a significant component of the cost of producing many manufactured goods; and they may be a helpful leading indicator of changes in inflation in industrial countries. The negotiating groups established for the Uruguay Round met on a number of occasions throughout the year to discuss a wide range of issues.
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This paper provides an analysis of recent developments relating to the major nonfuel primary commodities traded in international markets. Particular attention is given to market price movements and the factors underlying these movements. A number of adjustments in the international trading environment in which commodity prices are determined occurred in 1987, and even more significant changes are expected in the years ahead. Some of the adjustments in the past year affected only bilateral trading arrangements, while others, such as certain initiatives undertaken in the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiations and those relating to some international commodity agreements were of a multilateral nature. The present round, the eighth in a series of GATT negotiations held since 1947, involves two elements that are of particular relevance to international trade in commodities. Although only small changes were made in 1987 in the various multilateral schemes that exist to compensate countries for export earnings shortfalls, a significant increase in such financing in 1987 had the effect of stabilizing many developing countries’ export earnings, thereby maintaining their capacity to import and buoying world trade.
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This paper examines the World Economic Outlook forecasting record for the principal performance indicators for the major industrial countries and corresponding aggregates and for groups of non-oil developing countries. Several criteria were used in evaluating the forecasts: the computation and evaluation of various summary statistics of forecast accuracy, bias, and efficiency; comparisons with alternative forecasts—naive forecasts and forecasts produced by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and by national forecasting agencies; the examination of turning-point errors and forecast performance in defined episodes; and, finally, some attempt to explain forecast error in terms of unanticipated developments in policy variables and oil prices. In judging the forecast performance of the World Economic Outlook, a number of points must be kept in mind. Most important, it has to be recognized that the period since the inception of the World Economic Outlook as a regular forecasting exercise has been extraordinarily rich in economic upheavals, which have made the odds against accurate forecasting formidable.
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This paper provides an analysis of recent developments relating to the major nonfuel primary commodities entering international trade. Particular attention is given to market price movements in 1986 and to the factors underlying these movements. In the case of some agricultural markets, changes in commodity-specific policies of industrial countries have also had the effect of increasing supplies and competition for markets. The other factors, including rates of inflation, exchange rate changes, and interest rates, have also influenced commodity prices, at least when measured in nominal dollar terms. The evolution of economic activity in the industrial countries is most relevant in explaining movements in prices of metals and other raw materials used in industry, while movements in prices of food and beverages are better explained by supply factors. Changes in production capacity resulting from investment decisions made in earlier years can have an important influence on commodity prices.