Archived Series > World Economic and Financial Surveys
Abstract
This paper reports the on-off nature of emerging market access to international capital markets appears to have become a key characteristic of international financial markets. Emerging market borrowers have begun to adapt: when the market for US dollar-denominated bonds has closed, these borrowers turn to the syndicated loan markets, attempt to issue in bonds denominated in euro or yen, or issue in local-currency bond markets. In addition, they employ staff with extensive experience in investment banking and securities trading, exploit “windows of opportunity” to prefund their yearly financing requirement, and engage in debt exchanges to extend the maturity of their debt and avoid a bunching of maturities. The consolidation of financial institutions is driven by attempts to exploit economies of scale and scope, and technological advances such as the Internet and deregulation that facilitate universal banking activities are making it easier to reap such economies. Advances in technology are also transforming the securities trading industry.
Abstract
This interim update of the IMF's latest regular reports on the World Economic Outlook (published in October 1998) and International Capital Markets (September 1998) provides a preliminary assessment of the unusual turbulence in international financial markets during much of the period August-November 1998, and its implications for the global economic outlook and for policy. The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF gathers through its consultations with member countries. For its eveluation of developments in financial markets, the report also draws, in part, on informal discussions with commercial and investment banks, securities firms, stock and futures exchanges, and regulatory and monetary authorities.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the origins of the recent turbulence in government bond markets in the major industrial countries, and considers whether the role of hedge funds in that episode argues for altering present regulatory arrangements. In financial markets, it is possible for such a revision of expectations—if it is shared by all market participants—to alter asset prices almost immediately; indeed, the change in asset prices can occur without any transactions even taking place. In this case, however, trading volumes soared along with the rise in bond yields, as a broad spectrum of market participants sought to undo large positions that had been built up under the projections of a continued rise of European and US bond prices and a strengthening of the dollar against the yen and some European currencies. Although the increase in bond yields was undeniably large for such a short time period, the markets did receive new information in February and March on economic performance—especially on growth rates—and on the likely future course of macroeconomic policies.
Abstract
This paper discusses systematic issues in international finance explained in the International Capital Markets report. The paper describes that the nature and extent of recent banking problems in several industrial countries along with the policy responses to those problems. It is observed that balance sheet problems in banking are widespread among the major industrial countries. The paper also analyses recent activity in the European currency unit bond and exchange markets, and reviews developments in the private financing of developing countries and discusses several issues raised by the recent experience, including the broadening of the investor base for developing country securities, the special role played by regional financial centers in East and Southeast Asia, and the systemic implications of the evolving pattern of developing country financing. A key influence on international capital movements in recent years was the rising international diversification of investment portfolios, which is generally believed to have increased in response to the liberalization of exchange and capital controls in many industrial countries in the 1970s and 1980s.
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This paper reviews trends in official debt rescheduling and recent experience with debt renegotiations in the face of the persistent problems of heavily indebted developing countries.
Abstract
This paper describes developments in multilateral official debt renegotiations over the 18 months through December 1987. The most important new departure in multilateral official debt renegotiations was the adaptation of policies by Paris Club creditors in response to the protracted problems of the poorest and most heavily indebted countries at the same time that other initiatives were launched for low-income countries, including the proposal for enhancement of the IMF’s structural adjustment facility. Official creditors have generally preserved concessional interest rates in the restructuring of official development assistance (ODA) loans; moreover, for the poorest debtors, some creditors have converted such loans into grants. The question of interest concessions on other categories of debts rescheduled by the Paris Club was raised, inter alia, by the Venice summit but no consensus exists among creditors for changing the current practice. By regularly excluding short-term debt from reschedulings, debtors and creditors have also frequently succeeded in protecting the flow of short-term trade financing, which is often vital to the financing of an IMF-supported program.
Abstract
This paper provides an assessment of trends in the international capital markets, including most notably recent market shocks to the financial system and developments in the debt situation. It also reviews the scope of progress achieved over the last few years in strengthening the financial system. Given the extensive changes that have taken place in domestic and international financial markets, the authorities in all industrial countries have begun to adapt their supervisory and regulatory framework to reflect better the new financial environment. These efforts acquired added importance with the recent financial market shocks. The outlook for lending to developing countries that have experienced payments difficulties has deteriorated during the past year. For most of these countries, the prospect for a resumption of spontaneous general purpose bank lending appears very limited. In gauging the vulnerability of the financial system, it should be borne in mind that adverse economic circumstances affecting sovereign loans could have a simultaneous, negative impact on domestic credit quality. In some countries, bank exposures to energy, agriculture, real estate, shipping, and elements of heavy industry remain problematic.
Abstract
This paper discusses developments and issues concerning export credits from the perspective of the economic adjustment process of indebted developing countries. This emphasis is consistent with the principle that officially supported export credit—whether it takes the form of direct official credits or insurance and guarantees on privately funded credits—is an instrument of commercial financing for exports and not a means of aid finance. All creditor governments have a broad range of objectives in using the economic instruments at their disposal to help overcome the adjustment problems of heavily indebted countries, with which important bilateral trade relations are being maintained. In support of an expansion in world trade and notwithstanding the competitive element, export credit insurance and guarantees may have a special role in helping to catalyze private credit flows, especially since such a role coincides with the interest of private lenders to shift away from general purpose balance of payments finance to trade and project finance.
Abstract
This paper describes developments in multilateral official debt renegotiations over the 18 months up to the end of June 1986. To facilitate the return to normal market access for countries considered to have made substantial progress in their adjustment efforts, official creditors recently concluded multiyear rescheduling agreements (MYRAs) with both Ecuador and Cote d'Ivoire. Official creditors have also indicated that they were prepared to grant an extended consolidation period for Yugoslavia, although in this case a further meeting would be necessary to agree on the terms for the second stage of the rescheduling. The tendency toward increased differentiation in terms according to the circumstances of the debtor country, already apparent in 1983–1984, has been carried further during the last 18 months. Indeed, the rescheduling agreements concluded during this recent period tend to fall fairly clearly into two very different groups. Official multilateral debt renegotiations deal with the rescheduling of debt service payments on loans extended by, or guaranteed by, the governments or the official agencies of the participating creditor countries.