Archived Series > World Economic and Financial Surveys
Abstract
These studies provide supporting material for the analysis and scenarios in the World Economic Outlook.
Abstract
Provides a comprehensive survey of recent developments in international financial markets, including developments in emerging capital markets, bond markets, major currency markets, and derivative markets. The report focuses on efforts by the major industrial countries to strengthen the management of financial risk and prundential oversight over the international banking system. It also critically evaluates existing mechanisms for international cooperation of financial supervision and regulation and proposes the development of international banking standards.
Abstract
These studies, prepared by the staff of the International Monetary Fund, comprise supporting material for the analyses and scenarios in the World Economic Outlook and provide a more detailed examination of the theory and evidence on some major issues affecting the global economy, commodity prices, and individual countries.
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This paper analyzes the origins of the recent turbulence in government bond markets in the major industrial countries, and considers whether the role of hedge funds in that episode argues for altering present regulatory arrangements. In financial markets, it is possible for such a revision of expectations—if it is shared by all market participants—to alter asset prices almost immediately; indeed, the change in asset prices can occur without any transactions even taking place. In this case, however, trading volumes soared along with the rise in bond yields, as a broad spectrum of market participants sought to undo large positions that had been built up under the projections of a continued rise of European and US bond prices and a strengthening of the dollar against the yen and some European currencies. Although the increase in bond yields was undeniably large for such a short time period, the markets did receive new information in February and March on economic performance—especially on growth rates—and on the likely future course of macroeconomic policies.
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This paper presents the IMF’s annual survey of developments, prospects, and key policy issues in international capital markets. It focuses on how to manage the restructuring of capital markets in an environment of wide-ranging liberalization, intense competition, and growing securitization—in a way that avoids a systemic crisis as well as moral hazard risks and budgetary costs associated with public sector support of weak financial institutions. A key feature of the new financial environment is the competition-driven disintermediation from banking systems—particularly from wholesale banking—into securitized money and capital markets. The more creditworthy corporate borrowers in major industrial countries are increasingly able to satisfy their liquidity, risk-management, and financing needs directly in liquid securities markets. Securitization is forcing adjustments across the entire spectrum of activities and institutions in financial markets. The loss of traditional balance sheet business has led to cost cutting and to consolidation in the wholesale banking sector and to an expansion in off-balance sheet activities, including backup lines of credit and forward interest rate and foreign exchange contracts.
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This paper presents report on a number of countries in Asia that have made substantial use of agency credits, including the quasi-concessional financing available through mixed credit s. Through their willingness to grant comprehensive relief on a case-by-case basis, official creditors have responded flexibly to the needs of individual countries. The ability of export credit agencies to also provide substantial new financing to rescheduling countries has depended on the strategy of debt subordination achieved through fixing cutoff dates. As to the role of export credits at present, when the debt strategy’s continuing emphasis on new money flows is being supplemented by debt reduction, the debt subordination strategy followed by export credit agencies has left them well positioned to provide necessary new financing for middle-income countries pursuing strong adjustment. In heavily indebted low income countries, whose needs for project finance should most appropriately be met by concessional finance, export credit agencies continue to play an important role in supporting essential short-term credits.
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This paper presents the annual survey of international capital market developments and prospects. It reviews trends in the main market segments and seeks to analyze the principal forces underlying these developments, in particular the progressive integration of markets and the related globalization of investor and borrower behavior. Buoyant activity in international capital markets during 1988 and 1989 reflected a continued strong economic expansion in most industrial countries, a high level of investment activity, an increase in the volume of world trade, and an environment of relatively stable prices and exchange rates. The broad exchange market stability in this period, which reflected in part the resolve of the authorities of the Group of Seven (G-7) to stabilize exchange rates in the wake of the Plaza agreement, meant that nominal interest rate differentials had a greater influence than in 1987 on financial flows. The surge of activity on international bond markets in 1988 and 1989 was facilitated by the continued expansion of the swaps market, which allowed the portfolio preferences of borrowers and lenders to be more easily matched.
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This paper discusses commodity prices might serve as a useful leading indicator of inflation, based on the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. They thus may have a tendency to respond relatively quickly, especially in response to monetary disturbances. Estimation of alternative commodity-price indexes, in which the weights are chosen so as to minimize the residual variance in aggregate inflation regressions, was not fully successful. The commodity prices do have a useful role to play as an aid in predicting inflation, so long as one is careful to interpret the relationships qualitatively and in the context of more general macroeconomic developments. The ratio of consumer to commodity price movements’ changes over time, and the relative price of commodities undergoes long sustained swings; nonetheless, the qualitative linkages are quite evident in the data. Perhaps most importantly, turning points in commodity-price inflation frequently precede turning points in consumer-price inflation for the large industrial countries as a group.
Abstract
This paper describes the functioning of labor markets and to eliminate other structural obstacles to noninflationary growth. The decline in the price level in the home country will involve a rise in the real money supply and, if output is sluggish, this will result in an excess supply of money. This, in turn, will lead to a drop in the domestic interest rate and, given foreign interest rates, to a temporary depreciation of the exchange rate. Structural measures could also affect investment and the current account by raising the rate of return on capital in the home country. If capital is internationally mobile, a higher rate of return on capital would result in a rise in investment and a temporary deterioration in the home country’s current account, which will be financed by an inflow of foreign capital. The quantitative impact of financial market deregulation on the economy is rather uncertain.
Abstract
This paper assesses recent trends in international capital markets. It reviews, in particular, the forces currently reshaping the markets of industrial countries and confronting financial institutions with major challenges. For the international capital markets, 1988 was generally a year of recovery. The international securities markets, depressed during the second and third quarters of 1987 and badly shaken by the October market break, rebounded in 1988. Intensifying competition and changing regulatory requirements characterize contemporary financial markets. Competition has been fostered by the internationalization of institutions, the liberalization of domestic markets, technological advances in data processing and telecommunications, and financial product innovations that more extensively link traditional banking and securities markets. A fundamental task of financial intermediaries is to appraise and assume risk and to charge for it appropriately. As a result of regulatory change, the growth of derivative product markets, and technological innovation, competitive pressure appears to be increasing the general level of risk assumed by intermediaries, while only partially providing the tools needed to manage that risk.