Archived Series > World Economic and Financial Surveys
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Abstract
This paper examines the implications of the growth and integration of international capital markets for the management of exchange rates, with particular attention to the inferences that can be drawn from the currency turmoil that shook the European Monetary System (EMS) last fall and winter. The resources available to the private sector for taking positions in the forex market are now much larger than even those of the Group of Ten central banks. When private markets, led by the increasing financial muscle of institutional investors, reach the concerted view (rightly or wrongly) that the risk/return outlook for a particular currency has deteriorated significantly, the defending central bank could be faced with a run that could easily amount to, say, $100–200 billion or more within a week. The range of private market participants involved in last fall’s crisis in European currency markets was broad—encompassing banks, securities houses, institutional investors, hedge funds, and corporations. However that wide participation explains in part why the funds that flooded into central banks were so massive.
Abstract
This paper reviews major issues and developments in the trade area and outlines the challenges governments face as they seek to liberalize trade in the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations and address new trade issues. In industrial countries, the reorientation of policies was most apparent in steps taken to liberalize financial markets and foreign direct investment, privatize public enterprises, and deregulate services, particularly in the transportation and communication sectors. Among developing countries, a growing number recognized the merits of outward, market-oriented policies and took steps to liberalize their trade regimes and open their economies to international competition. By and large, the increased focus on market principles in industrial countries did not carry over to trade and industrial policies or, most notable, to the agricultural sector. Despite strong growth performance in 1983–1989, little progress was made in rolling back the protective barriers that had risen during the preceding recessionary period; protection persists in agriculture and declining sectors and has spread to newer high-tech areas.
Abstract
This paper reviews recent developments in private market financing for developing countries. Bank creditors themselves have been more amenable to restructuring in an environment where secondary market discounts on bank claims were falling significantly below the level of bank provisioning. This has allowed banks to realize substantial book profits by participating in debt operations. Debt conversions have also played a substantial role in reducing commercial bank debt. The pace of such conversions, however, has slowed over the past year in response to lower secondary market discounts on external debt and to a drop in privatization-related conversions. The re-entry to international capital markets by certain middle-income countries that had experienced debt-servicing difficulties gathered momentum over the past year. Total bond issues in international markets by the main re-entrants accounted for over half of issues by developing countries in this period. In contrast to the experience in securities markets, new bank lending to market re-entrants has remained limited and is confined mainly to short-term trade lines or project financing.
Abstract
This paper describes that in developing countries, the moves toward more flexible exchange rate arrangements and liberalization of exchange controls often occurred in the context of comprehensive macroeconomic adjustment programs supported by the IMF. These programs featured a broad range of policy actions, including an increasing emphasis on structural reforms aimed at improving resource allocation and enhancing the supply response of the economy. With respect to restrictive systems, the trend toward liberalization of nontrade current and capital transactions continues, primarily because it is seen as ineffective, even counterproductive, to try to control such financial flows. This trend contrasts with trade where it appears that some major participants have been awaiting the outcome of the Uruguay Round before further reducing restrictions. A single currency peg has been the exchange arrangement most frequently used by developing countries, of which over one third currently have such an arrangement. This type of peg has the merit of being easy to administer and is generally chosen by countries that have a large share of foreign exchange transactions in the currency chosen as the peg.
Abstract
This paper presents the IMF’s annual survey of developments, prospects, and key policy issues in international capital markets. It focuses on how to manage the restructuring of capital markets in an environment of wide-ranging liberalization, intense competition, and growing securitization—in a way that avoids a systemic crisis as well as moral hazard risks and budgetary costs associated with public sector support of weak financial institutions. A key feature of the new financial environment is the competition-driven disintermediation from banking systems—particularly from wholesale banking—into securitized money and capital markets. The more creditworthy corporate borrowers in major industrial countries are increasingly able to satisfy their liquidity, risk-management, and financing needs directly in liquid securities markets. Securitization is forcing adjustments across the entire spectrum of activities and institutions in financial markets. The loss of traditional balance sheet business has led to cost cutting and to consolidation in the wholesale banking sector and to an expansion in off-balance sheet activities, including backup lines of credit and forward interest rate and foreign exchange contracts.
Abstract
This paper presents a survey by IMF staff of recent trends in private market financing for developing countries. In addition to summarizing recent developments in capital flows to developing countries through banking and securities markets, it analyzes three issues of particular interest in the debt and financing outlook for developing countries. The underlying structure of market financing for several developing countries has undergone significant change in the recent past. The change has been prompted by recognition of the adverse impact of continued uncertainty about debt refinancing terms and of a growing debt stock on countries’ development prospects, and by a concurrent reduction in banks’ financial vulnerability arising from their developing country portfolios. The analysis focuses on the extent to which capital repatriation may be influenced by such specific actions as amnesties, capital account liberalization, the availability of foreign-currency denominated instruments, and debt conversion schemes.
Abstract
This paper presents the annual survey of international capital market developments and prospects. It summarizes recent developments in capital market flows and asset prices, including the initial impact of the Middle East crisis, and reviews the main ongoing structural changes in financial markets. A sharp fall in net investment in foreign securities by Japanese institutions in 1990, in the face of narrowing interest rate differentials and, in some cases, the need to cover losses stemming from the fall in the Japanese stock market. In contrast, the importance of net direct investment outflows as a counterpart to the current account surplus began increasing as from 1989. The crisis in the Middle East resulted in a further tightening of market conditions, especially for less creditworthy borrowers. A general preference for safer and more liquid financial instruments was reflected in increased spreads between corporate and government securities on national markets and between private sector Eurobonds and government securities denominated in the same currency on international markets.
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This paper reviews trends in official debt rescheduling and recent experience with debt renegotiations in the face of the persistent problems of heavily indebted developing countries.
Abstract
This study prepared by the Commodities Division of the Research Department reviews and analyzes the developments in commodity markets.
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This paper presents report on a number of countries in Asia that have made substantial use of agency credits, including the quasi-concessional financing available through mixed credit s. Through their willingness to grant comprehensive relief on a case-by-case basis, official creditors have responded flexibly to the needs of individual countries. The ability of export credit agencies to also provide substantial new financing to rescheduling countries has depended on the strategy of debt subordination achieved through fixing cutoff dates. As to the role of export credits at present, when the debt strategy’s continuing emphasis on new money flows is being supplemented by debt reduction, the debt subordination strategy followed by export credit agencies has left them well positioned to provide necessary new financing for middle-income countries pursuing strong adjustment. In heavily indebted low income countries, whose needs for project finance should most appropriately be met by concessional finance, export credit agencies continue to play an important role in supporting essential short-term credits.