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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

monetary policy, linked to domestic bank financing of fiscal operations. Inflation in the CFA zone is projected to remain below 3 percent, while it should ease in countries with floating exchange rates to about 7 percent, assuming monetary restraint and no unfavorable supply shocks. The improved inflationary outlook reflects declining world inflation rates, the presumed return of more seasonable weather in most countries, and continued monetary restraint . For those economies with exchange rates pegged to the euro, nonfuel import prices will fall by nearly 4 percent

International Monetary Fund

inflation during the previous month less the estimated world inflation rate. 14 Calvo et al. Ibid. 15 Tunisia exports oil but imports refined products. As a result, changes in oil prices do not modify significantly the country’s wealth. Tunisia could become more sensitive to oil price fluctuations in the future as its oil production declines. 16 This analytical framework was developed by Lane and Milesi-Ferreti (1999) and (2000) . This model has been preferred over that of Edwards (1994) since it is derived from a fully specified dynamic

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

if a country has a very open economy? K night: If a country has a totally open economy and no nontraded goods, then it may want to peg its exchange rate and accept the world inflation rate. A hard exchange rate peg or membership in a currency union is a good way to stabilize the domestic price of consumer goods. In a small, open, oil-exporting country, for example, movements in the exchange rate would have little effect on the profitability of petroleum exports. Such exchange rate pegging arrangements also help to maximize the microeconomic gains from

Pierre-Richard Agénor

sector, L p is derived from the monetary identity, by subtracting from the money stock net foreign assets and domestic financing of the budget deficit. The world inflation rate, ΔlogQ, is approximated by the rate of growth of consumer prices in the industrial countries. Finally, the data used for the parallel market rate, b , are those reported in the World Currency Yearbook ( WCY , formerly Pick’s Currency Yearbook ), various issues. WCY provides end-of-month quotations, and reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the quotations are consistently


above-mentioned outcome should also be viewed in the light of world inflation rates. During the same comparative periods, world inflation rates also rose by 4 percentage points on a one-year comparative basis, and by 7 percentage points when the three-year periods are examined. These increases are roughly in line with those experienced by program countries. Thus, although inflation was not reduced on average, a deterioration of individual country positions vis-à-vis the “world average” was prevented, despite the significant inflationary bias on consumer prices caused

International Monetary Fund

.12 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 World inflation rate, CPI (in percent) 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Sources: Kazakhstani authorities; and Fund staff estimates. 12. Based on these assumptions, the non-oil deficit that maintains oil wealth in real per capita terms is equivalent to 6-7 percent of GDP in the near term, and declines markedly relative to GDP over the long run . 10 However, the estimated sustainable path is highly sensitive to changes in the assumptions on oil

James M. Boughton

. Ramifications of the revolution These developments dramatically affected the world economy. Perhaps the most notable achievement was the virtual end of inflation as an international phenomenon. Although the average world inflation rate showed little change, the problem became more and more concentrated in a few developing countries with extremely high rates. For the aggregate of industrial countries, consumer price inflation fell from a peak of more than 12 percent in 1980 to 2½ percent in 1986 and then remained subdued throughout the 1990s ( Chart 1 ). That drop was