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Ms. Jacqueline T Irving

these 24 countries and dampened their growth prospects. Although cotton prices recovered somewhat in the first half of this year, prices remain well below the average of recent years, largely because of over-supply caused partly by continued subsidization of the sector in high- and middle-income countries. Moreover, African textile exporters have not fared well from the ending of the Multifiber Arrangement in January 2005, losing out to competition from China and other Asian countries, especially in the U.S. market. Sub-Saharan African textile and clothing exports to

International Monetary Fund

business environment and reduce red tape would need to be strengthened to boost the industry’s competitiveness. 125. The above measures will enhance the synergies between the cotton and textile sector and could turn Syria into a cotton producer as well as a textile exporter. Cotton producing countries can be separated in two groups: producers with high labor costs and no local manufacturing industry (the United States and Australia); and producers with low labor costs allowing for the concomitant development of a local exporting industry (China, Bangladesh, and

International Monetary Fund

a sizable share of the non-oil economy, even more so if cotton production is included. The sector has been highly subsidized (at least cotton production) and protected and as result has been mostly inward-looking. Yet, the authorities recently removed some of the key protections, such as the ban on import of garments. Will Syria be able to capitalize on this increased competition from abroad to develop into a competitive textile exporter? Contents II. A Reform Agenda for Fiscal Consolidation A. Introduction B. How Much Fiscal Adjustment is Needed

International Monetary Fund

Financial System Stability Assessment FTA Free Trade Agreement GNI Gross National Income GST General Sales Tax HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Countries HEIS Household Expenditure and Income Survey IAS International Accounting Standards IIT Intra-Industry Trade IPP Independent Power Producer JGATE Jordan Garment, Accessories and Textiles Exporters Association JUSBP Jordan-United States Business Partnership MEFP Memorandum on Economic and Financial

International Monetary Fund

competitors at an aggregate level—in the manufacturing sector for example, as this is the most common case in the literature—would suggest that countries A and B compete in market C, even though exporters of cars are not necessarily the relevant competitors of textile exporters. Furthermore, the HPA would imply that all manufacturing goods produced in country C are competitors of exporters to country C, regardless of the type of good that is produced in and exported to country C. 5. With respect to services, our approach incorporates the exports of services into the

aggregate level—in the manufacturing sector for example, as this is the most common case in the literature—would suggest that countries A and B compete in market C, even though exporters of cars are not necessarily the relevant competitors of textile exporters. Furthermore, the HPA would imply that all manufacturing goods produced in country C are competitors of exporters to country C, regardless of the type of good that is produced in and exported to country C. With respect to services, our approach incorporates the exports of services into the analysis of

Mr. Hans P Lankes and Miss Katerina Alexandraki

exports to the EU market under the EU’s Beef and Veal Protocol and Rum Protocol was not explored. In the case of the former, the dependence of the countries considered on beef exports was minimal: even for Botswana (one of the most important beneficiaries of the protocol), exports of beef products accounted for only around 2.5 percent of the total in 2001. The Rum Protocol effectively expired in 2003 as a result of an EU-U.S. agreement on distilled spirits during the 1997 WTO Ministerial meeting. 6 In the case of preferential textile exporters, and given an

Katehna Alexandraki

beneficiaries—primarily small island economies dependent on an even fewer number of products (sugar, bananas, and, to a much lesser extent, textiles). The comparatively smaller significance of textiles reflects the fact that our study abstracted from the impact of the expiration of textile quotas under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing at the end of 2004, and considered only the rents from lower tariffs to preferential textile exporters. Similar results were obtained in an earlier paper by Arvind Subramanian that focused on low-income countries—namely, the impact of

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

. However, a number of SSA textile exporters have come under pressure as the United States and the European Union (EU) have phased out textile quotas. SSA is among the regions most affected. The value of its exports to the U.S. market declined by 17 percent in 2005 and a further 22 percent in the first quarter of 2006. A similar loss was observed for 2005 in the EU market, but the loss in the first quarter of 2006 was moderate. Even though the United States and the EU have reimposed extensive quotas on Chinese exports, SSA textile exporters should continue to strengthen