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Ms. Carolina Osorio Buitron and Mr. Esteban Vesperoni
This report analyzes the possible spillover effects that could result if the U.S. normalizes its monetary policy while euro area countries are increasing monetary stimulus (a situation referred to as asynchronous monetary conditions). This analysis identifies country-specific shocks to economic activity and monetary conditions since the early 1990s, finding that real and monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area have oftentimes been asynchronous and have often resulted in significant spillover effects, particularly since early 2014.
Carolina Osorio Buitron and Mr. Esteban Vesperoni

This report analyzes the possible spillover effects that could result if the U.S. normalizes its monetary policy while euro area countries are increasing monetary stimulus (a situation referred to as asynchronous monetary conditions). This analysis identifies country-specific shocks to economic activity and monetary conditions since the early 1990s, finding that real and monetary conditions in the United States and the euro area have oftentimes been asynchronous and have often resulted in significant spillover effects, particularly since early 2014.

Ms. Carolina Osorio Buitron and Mr. Esteban Vesperoni

Front Matter Page SPILLOVER NOTES Spillover Implications of Differences in Monetary Conditions in the United States and in the Euro Area Carolina Osorio Buitron and Esteban Vesperoni SPILLOVER TASK FORCE | INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 1 JULY 2015 Front Matter Page Spillover Implications of Differences in Monetary Conditions in the United States and the Euro Area Carolina Osorio Buitron and Esteban Vesperoni Front Matter Page Copyright © 2015 International Monetary Fund Cataloging-in-Publication Data

International Monetary Fund

informal sessions are used to brief Executive Directors on policy issues and to receive feedback from them in preparation for a formal consideration at a future date. No decisions are taken at these informal sessions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF's Executive Board. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Departmental Paper: Spillovers from Dollar Appreciation Departmental Paper: Spillover Implications of Differences in Monetary Conditions in the

International Monetary Fund

, 2015 , “ Spillover Implications of Differences in Monetary Conditions in the United States and the Euro Area, ” forthcoming Spillover Note. Rajan , Raghu , 2014 , “ Competitive Monetary Easing: Is It Yesterday Once More? ” Reserve Bank of India Monthly Bulletin , 1 – 12 . Sahay , Ratna and others, 2014 , “ Emerging Market Volatility: Lessons from The Taper Tantrum, ” IMF Staff Discussion Note 14/09 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ), available at http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2014/sdn1409.pdf . 10

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Policy Influences Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets? ” IMF Staff Papers 45 ( 3 ): 474 – 98 . Bank of Mexico , 2015 , Sincronización de la Producción Manufacturera Mexicana con la de Estados Unidos, Informe Trimestral, Abril-Junio 2015, Banco de México , pp. 24 – 25 . Buitron , C. and E. Vesperoni , 2015 , “ Spillover Implications of Differences in Monetary Conditions in the United States and Euro Area, ” International Monetary Fund , Washington, D.C . Chiquiar , D. , E. Fragoso and M. Ramos-Francia , 2007 , “ La Ventaja

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

International Effects ,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Luis Working Paper Series, Working Paper 2010-018G . Osorio-Buitron , C. , and E. Vesperoni , 2015 , “ Spillover Implications of Differences in Monetary Conditions in the United States and the Euro Area ,” IMF Report ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ). Peersman , G. , 2011 , “ Macroeconomic Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Euro Area ,” ECB Working Paper Series No. 1397 . Pesaran , M. H. , T. Schuermann and S. M. Weiner , 2004 , “ Modeling Regional

International Monetary Fund
Many countries around the globe, particularly the systemic advanced economies, face the challenge of closing output gaps and raising potential output growth. Addressing these challenges requires a package of macroeconomic, financial and structural policies that will boost both aggregate demand and aggregate supply, while closing the shortfall between demand and supply. Each element of this package is important and one cannot substitute for the other: easy monetary policy will not raise potential output just as structural reforms will not close the output gap. This report studies the impact on emerging markets and nonsystemic advanced economies from monetary policy actions in systemic advanced economies, with a look also at knock-on effects from the decline in world oil prices.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper identifies policies to increase productivity in the East, reduce regional income disparities, and promote overall income convergence. Achieving this objective will require improving educational attainment and reducing skill mismatches in the East, scaling up public infrastructure to attract investment to less productive regions, and facilitating labor mobility. This paper also discusses female labor participation in Poland and the potential impact on bank profitability of the recently implemented bank asset tax. Poland’s population is aging, yet it has an important underused source of qualified labor—its women. For Poland to unleash its full economic potential, it needs to embrace the vital contribution that women can make to its economy.