Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Mr. Alun H. Thomas, Mr. Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, and Ms. Yingyuan Chen
This paper documents stylized facts on the process of structural transformation around the world and empirically analyzes its determinants using data on real value added by sector of economic activity (agriculture, manufacturing and services) for a panel of 168 countries over the period 1970-2010. The analysis points to large differences in sector shares both across and within regions as well as for countries at similar levels of economic development. Using both linear and quantile regression methods, it finds that a large proportion of the cross-country variation in sector shares can be accounted for by country characteristics, such as real GDP per capita, demographic structure, and population size. It also finds that policy and insitutional variables, such as product market reforms, openness to trade, human and physical capital, and finance improve the baseline model’s ability to account for the variation in sectoral shares across countries.
Mr. Waikei R Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, and Mr. Alfred Schipke
Front Matter Page Asia and Pacific Department
II. Labor Market Developments
III. Explaining Labor Market Resilience
IV. Empirical Analysis on Migrant Flows
A. Okun’s Law Estimates
B. Determinants of Migrant Flows
V. Scenario Analysis on the Labor Market under the New Normal
A. Elasticity between Employment and Growth across Sectors
B. Estimation of ServicesSectorShare
C. Scenario Analysis
D. Simulation Results across Scenarios
VI. Policy Implications
Mr. Malhar S Nabar, Mr. Kai Yan, and Mr. Steven A Barnett
structural change in China with an emphasis on the servicesectorshare of GDP and the transition from manufacturing to services.
While patterns of structural transformation across China’s provinces are broadly in line with international experience—albeit they have occurred at an accelerated pace—one important aspect along which China stands out is the evolution of sector-level productivity differentials. Specifically, as Section II illustrates, the gap between labor productivity in services and the rest of the economy has widened across China’s provinces as they have
Mr. Malhar S Nabar, Papa N’Diaye, and Mr. Markus Rodlauer
. Average TFP growth would be less than 3 percent per year, around 1 percentage point below the historical average for China.
III. Medium-Term Growth Prospects With Reforms
If China instead implements reforms to accelerate and sustain TFP growth from within-sector productivity gains, enhances the efficiency of credit allocation and reduces the dependence on capital accumulation, and boosts the servicesectorshare of GDP and employment, the economy will be well placed to transition out of middle into high-income status. Two scenarios are constructed to
W. Raphael Lam, Xiaoguang Liu, and Mr. Alfred Schipke
Zhao, 2012 ; Gruber, Milligan, and Wise, 2009 ). Average labor productivity is likely to rise because incoming cohorts have, on average, more years of schooling than those exiting the labor force.
Expansion of the services sector . The growing services sector is often cited as a key reason for labor market resilience amid slowing growth. It tends to be more labor intensive and low skilled, on average, and is thereby able to absorb surplus labor. For instance, jobs created from a 1 percentage point increase of the servicessectorshare in GDP could offset the