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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

masks outside their homes during the past 7 days, ranging from 0 (never) to 4 (always). The tracked reopening actions are used to construct country-specific and country sector-specific daily reopening indices. The next sections explore how the official aggregate reopening measures translate into actual improvements in activity and how they affect infections; and how different reopening strategies may affect the trade-off between more economic activity and a lower risk of new infections. Back in Business: Reopening and Activity This chapter examines the

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

This chapter was prepared by Kamil Dybczak, Carlos Mulas Granados, and Ezgi Ozturk with inputs from Vizhdan Boranova, Karim Foda, Keiko Honjo, Raju Huidrom, Nemanja Jovanovic and Svitlana Maslova, under the supervision of Jörg Decressin and the guidance of Gabriel Di Bella. Jaewoo Lee and Petia Topalova provided useful advice and comments. Nomelie Veluz provided administrative support. This chapter reflects data and developments as of September 28, 2020.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Christian Ebeke (co-lead), Nemanja Jovanovic, Svitlana Maslova, Francisco Parodi, Laura Valderrama (co-lead), Svetlana Vtyurina, and Jing Zhou prepared this chapter under the supervision of Mahmood Pradhan and the guidance of Laura Papi and Petia Topalova. Jörg Decressin provided useful advice and comments. Jankeesh Sandhu provided outstanding research assistance, and Nomelie Veluz was expertly in charge of administrative support.

Mr. Jeffrey R. Franks, Bertrand Gruss, Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, Manasa Patnam, and Mr. Sebastian Weber

Infections? 1. Do Faster and Earlier Reopening Strategies Carry More Risk? 2. Does the Sequencing of Sectoral Reopenings Influence Subsequent Infections? D. Additional Robustness for the Effect of Reopenings on Infections VI. CONCLUSION REFERENCES VII. APPENDIX FIGURES 1. Sectoral Reopening Indices vs. Oxford Blavatnik Overall Workplace Index 2. GDP growth and mobility change, 2020Q2 3. Overall Reopening Strategy and Characterization 4. Sequence of Reopening Sectors and Easing Actions 5. Trends around Reopening: Mobility 6. Trends around

Mr. Jeffrey R. Franks, Bertrand Gruss, Carlos Mulas Granados, Manasa Patnam, and Mr. Sebastian Weber

other existing datasets that capture the level of government containment measures and their stringency, our data captures the sector-specific targeting of reopening measures. For instance, Figure 1 compares the Oxford Blavatnik’s overall workplace stringency (see Hale and others, 2020 ) to disaggregated sectoral measures in our database. It can be seen that while the overall trend of the composite indices is similar across the two datasets, the sectoral disaggregation reveals some interesting patterns and variations. Figure 1. Sectoral Reopening Indices vs

Mr. Jeffrey R. Franks, Bertrand Gruss, Mr. Carlos Mulas-Granados, Manasa Patnam, and Mr. Sebastian Weber
European authorities introduced stringent lockdown measures in early 2020 to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. As the first wave of infection curves flattened and the outbreak appeared controlled, most countries started to reopen their economies albeit using diverse strategies. This paper introduces a novel daily database of sectoral reopening measures in Europe during the first-wave and documents that country plans differed significantly in terms of timing, pace, and sequencing of sectoral reopening measures. We then show that reopenings led to a recovery in mobility—a proxy for economic activity—but at the cost of somewhat higher infections. However, the experience with reopening reveals some original dimensions of this trade-off. First, the increase in COVID-19 infections after reopening appears less severe in fatality rates. Second, a given reopening step is associated with a worse reinfection outcome in countries that started reopening earlier on the infection curve or that opened all sectors at a fast pace in a relatively short time. Finally, while opening measures tend to have an amplification effect on subsequent cases when a large fraction of the economy is already open, this effect appears heterogenous across sectors.