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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

questions emerge: how long and deep is the current recession likely to be, and how vigorous the recovery? The purpose of this chapter is to look at past recessions and recoveries in Asia to shed light on these important questions. 4 In particular, we look at past episodes and assess how long and deep the typical recession has been, why some recessions have been noticeably longer and deeper, if and why some countries within Asia have suffered deeper recessions than others, how strong or weak have recoveries typically been, and what leads these recoveries. The key

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Navigating the Pandemic: A Multispeed Recovery in Asia The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is still unfolding around the globe. In Asia, as elsewhere, the virus has ebbed in some countries but surged in others. The global economy is beginning to recover after a sharp contraction in the second quarter of 2020, as nationwide lockdowns are lifted and replaced with more targeted containment measures. Global growth has been revised up since the June 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update to -4.4 percent in 2020, because of better-than-expected second

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic plunged the world into a sharp recession in the first half of 2020. Service sector activity, which relies on person-to-person contact, took a big hit. Manufacturing also weakened substantially, and global trade plummeted. Global growth is projected at –4.4 percent in 2020, 0.6 percentage points above the June 2020 World Economic Outlook Update forecast. The upgrade reflects a better second quarter outturn in major countries that eased lockdowns earlier than expected. The recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.2 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than projected in June 2020, reflecting the persistence of social distancing into 2021.

Guillermo Ortiz Martinez

The Mexican and the Asian crises have striking similarities. A comparison of the two provides lessons about how emerging economies can safeguard themselves against sudden capital outflows.

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

The following are edited excerpts from an address by Peter Heller, Deputy Director in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, to the Manila Social Forum on November 9.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

The April 2011 issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific focuses on the policy challenges of managing the next phase of growth after Asia's recovery from the global crisis. The analytical chapters discuss how capital flows to the region may affect the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the role of macroprudential measures in this context, the implications of the Asian supply chain for rebalancing growth across the region, and the policy challenges for Asian low-income and Pacific Island countries. Economic recovery in Asia as a whole has been rapid (8.3 percent in 2010) and fueled by both exports and domestic demand. Looking ahead, growth is expected to continue at a more moderate but also more sustainable pace in 2011 and 2012, led by China and India. Meanwhile, new risks to the outlook have emerged. The full human cost and impact on infrastructure of the mid-March earthquake and tsunami in Japan remain to be determined. The steady response of the Japanese government and people has helped to contain the effects of the disaster on production, but a risk remains of prolonged disruptions in production that could spill over to other Asian economies in the regional supply chain. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East and North Africa and related risk of further oil price spikes could disrupt global growth and affect Asian exports. Finally, pockets of overheating have emerged in Asia, as core inflation and credit growth have accelerated in several Asian economies. The need to tighten macroeconomic policy stances has become more pressing than it was six months ago.