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Majdi Debbich
This paper uses an untapped source of satellite-recorded nightlights and gas flaring data to characterize the contraction of economic activity in Yemen throughout the ongoing conflict that erupted in 2015. Using estimated nightlights elasticities on a sample of 72 countries for real GDP and 28 countries for oil GDP over 6 years, I derive oil and non-oil GDP growth for Yemen. I show that real GDP contracted by a cumulative 24 percent over 2015-17 against 50 percent according to official figures. I also find that the impact of the conflict has been geographically uneven with economic activity contracting more in some governorates than in others.
Majdi Debbich

ln(Oil GDP) 5.216 3.262 -0.041 14.288 168 Oil producers ln(Oil prod.) 6.016 1.777 2.398 9.424 168 Oil producers Fragile States Index 85.687 15.114 43.700 114.900 432 Full Statistical Capacity Index 61.470 15.307 20.000 95.556 396 N/a for Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE Table A2. List of Countries for Panel Regressions Real GDP equation (72 countries) Oil GDP equation (28 countries) Afghanistan Liberia Algeria Algeria Libya

Majdi Debbich and Mr. Subir Lall

data allow to account for different sources of radiance including light generated from gas flaring on oil fields which together with total nightlights can be leveraged to estimate oil production ( Do et al., 2017 ). Using a sample of 72 countries from the MENAP and Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) regions and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over 6 years (2012–2017), I estimate nightlights-based oil and total real GDP equations and predict non-oil GDP as the residual. I then use point estimates to characterize GDP growth in Yemen and the contributions of oil and non

Luc Eyraud and Mr. Roberto Cardarelli

.07 −0.06 −0.09 −0.05 Alpha of dlog(real GDP) equation Exogenous Variables dummy 2008Q4, Q1, Q3 X X X X X X X dlog(China GDP), d(VIX), d(fed fund rate) X Note: t-statistics in brackets. 1/ Annual models. Model 9 includes time dummies for 1975 and 1982. 2/ Openness is measured as exports plus imports divided by GDP. Investment ratio is measured as GFCF divided by GDP. After a copper price shock, the transition towards the new steady state

Mr. Tamim Bayoumi and Mr. Reginald Darius

asset prices provide substitute for our measures of credit conditions. The answer seems to be that investment grade corporate yield and the SBS measure of credit conditions can reasonably substitute for each other but that the overall fit of the model deteriorates significantly (measured using the R-bar squared of the real GDP equation). When credit variables are excluded entirely, this variable becomes much more important, particularly the contribution to variance decomposition and to a slightly lesser extent in terms of the significance of the impulse response

Francisco Nadal-De Simone

or trend output. During the recession times, S t = 1, and the economy is hit by a transitory negative shock ( π s t = π < 0 ) . Temporary disturbances are plucking down real GDP. Equations ( 13 ) and ( 14 ) allow for the possibility that the variance of the symmetric shock u t is different during the normal and the recession times. The model of output behavior usually used the literature views economic fluctuations as symmetric movements around a stochastic trend. One model of that kind is Clark’s (1987) , which is a restricted version of the plucking model

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

.02] Log (investment ratio) 2/ −1.29 [−2.81] Short-Term Dynamics Number of lags 4 4 4 4 2 6 4 1 1 −0.03 −0.02 −0.03 −0.04 −0.03 −0.07 −0.06 −0.09 −0.05 Alpha of dlog(real GDP) equation Exogenous Variables dummy 2008Q4, Q1, Q3 X X X X X X X dlog(China GDP), d(VIX), d(fed fund rate) X 1/ Annual models. Model 9 includes time dummies for 1975 and 1982. 2

Mr. Sam Ouliaris, Ms. Celine Rochon, and Mr. Norbert Funke

terms. This could be due to the higher government debt in the post-crisis period, which implies higher interest payments on the debt. Other things being equal, it also implies faster accumulation of debt, and given the larger post-crisis negative coefficient on the debt-ratio in the real GDP equation, a larger drag on real GDP from positive shocks to the real interest rate. This result is consistent with the debt multiplier in Figure 6 , which suggests a delayed differential pre- and post-crisis response of GDP to a debt shock and debt accumulation. 15 Table 1

International Monetary Fund

S t , ( 14 ) where π t is an asymmetric, discrete shock, which depends upon the unobserved variable S t , and u t , is the usual symmetric shock. During normal times S t = 0, and so π S t = 0; therefore, the economy is near its potential or trend output. During the recession times, S t = 1, and the economy is hit by a transitory negative shock ( π S t = π<0) Temporary disturbances are plucking down real GDP. Equations ( 13 ) and ( 14 ) allow for the possibility that the variance of the symmetric shock u t

Mr. Francisco d Nadal De Simone
Since Taylor estimated a trade-off between inflation and output variance, it has been widely accepted that efforts to keep the inflation rate “too low and stable” will likely result in relatively larger output fluctuations. Following the generalized reduction in inflation variance in the 1990s, that concern was rekindled. This study estimates whether conditional output variance has changed in a sample of 12 countries. With the possible exception of Canada, there is no evidence of an increase in output variance. Either output variance has not changed (i.e., in Korea and Singapore) or has fallen (i.e., in Australia and New Zealand).