Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world
could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric
car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century,
could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil
as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly
assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices,
about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become
the new coal.
Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, Aditya Pande, Mr. Ray Brooks, and Mr. Ralph Chami
a smaller p, which is still several orders of magnitude greater than our estimate.
Using the point estimates we obtain for p and q and starting with the available data in 2015, the model predicts that by early 2040s, EVs would represent about 90 percent of the vehicles’ stock, which is in line with the projections of Method I at the same horizon ( Figure 6 ). Becker et. al. (2009) projectEVs to represent 24 percent of the existing automobile fleet in the U.S. by 2030s, which is close to our Method I projection ( Figure 6 ). Using instead the lower end of