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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

production constraints and improve the investment cycle. Indeed, policy changes aiming at education and productivity could carry positive impacts on the informal economy, which is half the size of total GDP. Furthermore, although overall export diversification and product exports moved slightly upwards in recent years, production diversification could yield higher growth rates. References Dabla-Norris , Era , Giang Ho , Kalpana Kochhar , Annette Kyobe , and Robert Tchaidze , 2013 , “ Anchoring Growth: The Importance of Productivity

Mr. A. Salehizadeh, Mr. Peter Berezin, and Mr. Elcior Santana
It is typically assumed that countries in the Caribbean suffer from a lack of output and export diversification. Contrary to this popular perception, we find no evidence that output variability is higher in Caribbean countries than in larger, more diversified, developing economies. In addition, we find no evidence that export earnings are more volatile in the Caribbean economies than elsewhere. In fact, export earnings are quite stable in the Caribbean, reflecting the fact the region is rather unique in that most of its export earnings are generated from service exports, which tend to be considerably less volatile than goods exports.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

section focuses on El Salvador’s potential for diversification in both exports (across products and partners) and in output, as well as increases in the quality of existing products. Selected Countries: Annual Average Deviation of Country’s Real Exports Growth from World Real Exports Growth, 2003-12 Sources: WEO and Fund staff estimates. Share in Value Added by Sector (Percent) Source: Central Bank of El Salvador. Share in Employment by Sector (Percent) 2. Limited domestic production diversification . Since the 1990s, El Salvador

International Monetary Fund

) is planning a series of measures to curb banks’ property lending and external borrowing. These will need to be supplemented by vigorous supervision. Rules governing the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan are being redesigned with the aim of establishing a long-term strategy for the use and accumulation of oil revenues. Staff recommended targeting the non-oil deficit on the basis of a fiscal sustainability framework grounded by prudent assumptions regarding longer-term oil prices and production. Diversification of the economy will be best achieved by

Mr. Aasim M. Husain

trade reflect both export and import prices, high volatility of the former need not necessarily reflect a lack of export (and production) diversification and may arise on account of sharp movements on the import side (e.g., from heavy reliance on oil imports). Even so, however, greater terms of trade volatility would indicate higher costs associated with foregoing adjustment via exchange rate changes and, hence, a case against a peg. 14 The empirical analysis suggests that a one-period lag tends to yield the highest correlations. Hence, the correlations reported