Tigers, the best performingeconomies in the region, display exceptional investment rates and an extremely high degree of openness (that is, they have a lot of exports and imports relative to the size of the economy). The section above stressed the problem of possible reverse causality between growth and these variables. A further problem is that of averages. Most studies observe a correlation between investment and exporting that are averaged over a period and a rate of growth that is averaged over the same period. Using averages over a period obscures the relation
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Peru remains one of the best performing economies in Latin America, with solid macroeconomic policies and fundamentals and visible gains in poverty reduction. However, like most of the region, Peru faced a challenging external environment in 2014. Lower metal prices and weaker demand from trading partners were a major drag on private investment and exports. On the domestic front, an unexpected drop in subnational public investment level and temporary supply disruptions in mining, fishing, and agriculture compounded external shocks. Real GDP is projected to expand at about 3.75 percent in 2015, contingent on the reversal of the supply shocks and policy stimulus of 2014. Growth is expected to rise in 2016–17.