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Mr. Christian Bogmans, Lama Kiyasseh, Mr. Akito Matsumoto, Mr. Andrea Pescatori, and Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti

global decline in the manufacturing share has reduced global energy demand by about 8.7 percent between 1971 and 2017. This contribution has been stronger for AEs, as manufacturing activities have relocated to EMs. In absence of manufacturing relocation, energy demand in the US would have been 4.1 percent higher, while energy demand in China would have been 10.7 percent lower. Looking forward, however, the scope of both the relocation and reduction of the manufacturing share seems more limited Our analysis complements existing papers by including novel (historical

Mr. Christian Bogmans, Lama Kiyasseh, Mr. Akito Matsumoto, and Mr. Andrea Pescatori
Not anytime soon. Using a novel dataset covering 127 countries and spanning two centuries, we find evidence for an energy Kuznets curve, with an initial decline of energy demand at low levels of per capita income followed by stages of acceleration and then saturation at high-income levels. Historical trends in energy efficiency have reduced energy demand, globally, by about 1.2 percent per year and have, thus, helped bring forward a plateau in energy demand for high income countries. At middle incomes energy and income move in lockstep. The decline in the manufacturing share of value added, globally, accounted for about 0.2 percentage points of the energy efficiency gains. At the country level, the decline (rise) of the manufacturing sector has reduced (increased) US (China) energy demand by 4.1 (10.7) percent between 1990 and 2017.