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Francesca G Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri
Using high-frequency proxies for economic activity over a large sample of countries, we show that the economic crisis during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic was only partly due to government lockdowns. Economic activity also contracted because of voluntary social distancing in response to higher infections. We also show that lockdowns can substantially reduce COVID-19 infections, especially if they are introduced early in a country's epidemic. Despite involving short-term economic costs, lockdowns may thus pave the way to a faster recovery by containing the spread of the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. Finally, we document that lockdowns entail decreasing marginal economic costs but increasing marginal benefits in reducing infections. This suggests that tight short-lived lockdowns are preferable to mild prolonged measures.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

mobility. For example, governments are more likely to impose lockdowns when health risks become more acute. At the same time, people tend to reduce mobility because they fear contracting the virus, independent of lockdowns. This may lead to a spurious negative correlation between lockdowns and mobility. To alleviate these endogeneity concerns, the regression framework controls for the number of COVID-19 cases and includes lags of the mobility indicator. In other words, the empirical analysis tries to measure the impact on mobility from a lockdown tightening at a given

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The authors of this chapter are Philip Barrett, Christian Bogmans, Benjamin Carton, Johannes Eugster, Florence Jaumotte (lead), Adil Mohommad, Evgenia Pugacheva, Marina M. Tavares, and Simon Voigts, in collaboration with external consultants Warwick McKibbin and Weifeng Liu for modeling simulations, and with contributions from Thomas Brand. Srijoni Banerjee, Eric Bang, and Jaden Kim provided research support, and Daniela Rojas Fernandez provided editorial assistance.

Mr. Nicola Pierri and Mr. Yannick Timmer

Front Matter Page Contents 1 Introduction 2 Related Literature 3 Data Sources 4 Descriptive Patterns 5 Results 5.1 Mobility and Economic Outcomes 5.2 Technology, Mobility, and Unemployment 5.2. 1 Individual Level Data 5.3 Counterfactual 6 Conclusion References FIGURES 1: Unemployment and Mobility in the US 2: Unemployment and Lockdown Stringency in the US 3: Lockdown across States 4: Mobility and Lockdown in the US 5: Mobility around Lockdown Tightening 6: Mobility around Lockdown Loosening 7: Lockdown

Francesca G Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri

Lockdown on Mobility Conditional on the Stage of the Pandemic 6 Asymmetric Impact of Lockdown Tightening and Loosening 7 Impact of Lockdowns and Voluntary Social Distancing on Job Postings 8 Job Postings by Sector around Stay-at-Home Orders 9 Impact of a Full Lockdown on COVID-19 Infections 10 The Importance of Speed and Timing of Lockdowns 11 Sequencing of Lockdown Measures 12 Nonlinear Effects of Lockdowns List of Tables A.1 Data Sources A.2 Country Coverage

Francesca G Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Damiano Sandri, and Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo

Steps: The Gender Division of Childcare during the COVID19 Pandemic ”. CEPR Covid Economics Issue 23 . Appendix A. Lockdown stringency dynamics To better understand the dynamics uncovered by the local projections regarding how lockdowns affect mobility, it is helpful to examine how the stringency of lockdowns evolves over the local projection horizon. Panel A.1a shows that a lockdown tightening tends to gradually decline and dissipate after about two weeks. These estimated dynamics reflect the way in which Italy, Portugal, and Spain have adjusted their

Francesca G Caselli, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Weicheng Lian, and Mr. Damiano Sandri

display the results from the national and subnational regressions, respectively. We see that in both cases a full lockdown leads to a very significant decline in mobility. When using national level data, the impact reaches about 25 percent after a week and then mobility starts to resume gradually as the lockdown tightening dissipates. 8 The estimates based on subnational data corroborate the negative effect of lockdowns on mobility. The shape of the mobility response is remarkably similar to the one obtained with national data. The impact is modestly larger and more

Mr. Nicola Pierri and Mr. Yannick Timmer

[ Heathcote et al ., 2020 ]. We also investigate more broadly how the decline in mobility affected economic outcomes and COVID-19 infection rates in the US and how it links to lockdown measures. We show that mobility frontran the state-level lockdown tightenings and loosenings. Before lockdowns were implemented in states, mobility already declined strongly, suggesting that a large part of the mobility decline can be attributed to voluntary social distancing. On the reopening side, mobility already started to increase before states loosened restrictions. However, infection