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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

:H1). Online Annex Table 2.1.2 provides the full list of countries. Panel 2: For GDP, consumption, and investment, the analysis uses data for 2020:H1. For the other indicators that are available at monthly frequency, the analysis considers the first three months after COVID-19 cases reach 100 in a country. The regressions control for the logarithm of the COVID-19 cases normalized by population in 2019. Normalized coefficients reported on the vertical axis show the impact of a one-standard-deviation increase in the lockdown index on each economic variable

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The authors of this chapter are Philip Barrett, Christian Bogmans, Benjamin Carton, Johannes Eugster, Florence Jaumotte (lead), Adil Mohommad, Evgenia Pugacheva, Marina M. Tavares, and Simon Voigts, in collaboration with external consultants Warwick McKibbin and Weifeng Liu for modeling simulations, and with contributions from Thomas Brand. Srijoni Banerjee, Eric Bang, and Jaden Kim provided research support, and Daniela Rojas Fernandez provided editorial assistance.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

calculations. Note: Advanced economies comprise Australia, Canada, Denmark, euro area, Hong Kong SAR, Israel, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Sweden, Taiwan Province of China, United Kingdom, and United States. This group represents 41.4 percent of global consumption based on purchasing-power-parity weights. Estimated coefficient of the lockdown index was –0.5 in Q2, significant at the 5 percent level. Data labels use International Organization for Standardization (ISO) country codes. Beyond the near term, widespread availability of vaccines and normalization of contact