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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

enrollment rate); investment to GDP ratio; knowledge accumulation (measured by R&D spending in USD to capture the fact that R&D may require a critical mass to effectively impact growth). An increase in the working age population, in the quality of labor, in the stock of capital, or in the overall knowledge stock of the economy, is expected to enable growth. Policy-related variables : current government spending in percent of GDP, inflation (level and standard deviation), and exchange rate misalignment. Current spending is generally seen as creating pressure on available

Paolo Guerrieri, Bernardo Maggi, Valentina Meliciani, and Pier Carlo Padoan

I. Introduction In this paper we present and estimate a continuous-time model of endogenous growth, business services and technology diffusion. We explore the role of business services in knowledge accumulation and growth and we study the determinants of knowledge diffusion including the role of distance as it evolves over time. The model is estimated on several European countries, Japan, and the United States. We then discuss the results of policy simulations to illustrate the benefits for European Union (EU) growth of the deepening of the single market

International Monetary Fund
We explore the role of business services in knowledge accumulation and growth and the determinants of knowledge diffusion including the role of distance. A continuous-time model is estimated on several European countries, Japan, and the United States. Policy simulations illustrate the benefits for EU growth of the deepening of the single market, the reduction of regulatory barriers, and the accumulation of technology and human capital. Our results support the basic insights of the Lisbon Agenda. Economic growth in Europe is enhanced to the extent that: trade in services increases, technology accumulation and diffusion increase, regulation becomes both less intensive and more uniform across countries, and human capital accumulation increases in all countries.
Mr. Haizhou Huang and Chenggang Xu

impacts on innovation are provided, there is little attempt in these models to explain what, aside from capital, labor inputs, and knowledge accumulation, determines innovation. Technological change is modeled essentially as a function of inputs while taking the institution as a given. Another strand of literature examines the relationship between finance and growth ( Greenwood and Jovanovic, 1990 ; King and Levine, 1993 ; Obstfeld, 1994 ; and Rajan and Zingales, 1998 ). However, in this literature economic growth is essentially determined by labor and capital

Chenggang Xu and Mr. Haizhou Huang
The fundamental importance of economic institutions for economic growth through their impact on technological change has been argued, reconfirmed by recent empirical studies, but not examined theoretically. This paper tries to fill that gap. In the model proposed, economic growth is affected by the efficiency and riskiness of research and development (R&D), which are endogenized through financial institutions. The theory and its results shed lights on the debate of convergence versus divergence; the “East Asia miracle” versus the East Asia financial crisis; and the rise and fall of centralized economies.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper studies the main sources for growth in Algeria within a cross-country analysis and draws policy recommendations to support faster growth. In Section 1, a growth accounting exercise framework has been explained, and in Section 2, the determinants for growth are identified. This study examines the factors behind the recent increase in inflation and the policies that should be implemented to bring inflation back to the level targeted by the monetary authorities. Two approaches used to explore the determinants of inflation were discussed.
International Monetary Fund

exploited. In particular, growth in human capital will have to become more intensive in knowledge accumulation rather than in further increases in the number of years of schooling of the average worker. This could be achieved through greater openness to foreign trade and investment and through devoting more resources to research and development. Structural reforms can play an important role in this context by raising efficiency, so that alternative sources of economic growth can be better exploited. B. A Dissection of Korea’s GDP Growth: 1980–2002 4. Investment

Mr. Joshua Aizenman and Mr. Jaewoo Lee

enduring ways. In its incarnation as an export-oriented growth strategy in East Asia, financial mercantilism can improve long-run economic efficiency when there are strong dynamic externalities in the economy, such as learning by doing and knowledge spillovers. In general, the case for financial mercantilism remains debatable, and may hinge on government ability to precommit and the nature of the strategic interaction among competitors. 7 Dynamic externalities have often been postulated in models of economic growth in the name of knowledge accumulation or learning by

Ms. Valerie Cerra, Antonio Fatás, and Sweta C. Saxena

) as well as the unit root properties of the stochastic trend. Using a similar logic but applied to any temporary shock, Stadler (1986) and Stadler (1990) , established a much larger departure from RBC models. The novelty was that demand shocks, that had always been seen as temporary, could now have permanent effects on GDP. In Stadler (1990) monetary shocks affect employment and therefore the pace of knowledge accumulation, which is the driver of long-term growth. Stiglitz (1993) showed similar effects in a model where R&D expenditures react to the state of