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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

. Working Paper No. 01/84 The Impact of the EMU on the Structure of European Equity Returns: An Empirical Analysis of the First 21 Months Kraus, Thomas Working Paper No. 01/85 Beyond Balanced Growth Kongsamut, Piyabha; Xie, Danyang; Rebelo, Sergio Working Paper No. 01/86 Resources and Incentives to Reform: A Model and Some Evidence on Sub-Saharan African Countries De Blasio, Guido Working Paper No. 01/87 The Size and Sustainability of the Nigerian Current Account Deficits Adedeji, Olumuyiwa S. Working Paper No. 01

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Crises, Systemic Risk, and Too-Big-to-Fail , George G. Kaufman and Steven A. Seelig 01/84: The Impact of the EMU on the Structure of European Equity Returns: An Empirical Analysis of the First 21 Months , Thomas Kraus 01/85: Beyond Balanced Growth , Piyabha Kongsamut, Sergio Rebelo, and Danyang Xie 01/86: Resources and Incentives to Reform: A Model and Some Evidence on Sub-Saharan African Countries , Alberto Dalmazzo and Guido de Blasio 01/87: Stress Testing of Financial Systems: An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Expectations , Winfrid Blaschke

Mr. Michel Galy and Mr. Michael T. Hadjimichael

from the French franc to the euro raises a number of questions. Will this change require simply a decision by the CFA franc countries themselves together with France, or will it involve the other members of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)? What would be the likely economic impact of the EMU on the real effective exchange rate of the CFA franc and the external competitiveness of the CFA franc zone? This paper argues that, while the provisions of Article 109 of the Maastricht Treaty leave some room for interpretation, the potential free convertibility

Mr. Thomas Kraus
Using symmetric data sets of 92 weekly return observations before and after the introduction of the euro, the paper analyzes the impact of the new currency on the return structure of equity markets in the European Monetary Union. Variance decompositions, cluster analyses, and principle component analyses are used to explore the changes in the structural relations. European industry factors are found to have dramatically increased in importance with the launch of the single currency, and a new 'country-size' factor in European stock returns is detected. Furthermore, inner-European correlations are documented to have been reduced sharply with the start of the monetary union.
Mr. Michel Galy and Mr. Michael T. Hadjimichael
Whether the prospective shift of the peg of the CFA franc to the euro would constitute an exchange rate arrangement with EMU countries would depend critically on the interpretation of the free convertibility of the CFA franc guaranteed by France. Nonetheless, this shift is likely to leave the CFA franc arrangements and operating features of the zone essentially unchanged. The current parity of the CFA franc could be considered in line with fundamentals. The potential economic consequences for the CFA franc countries could be positive over the long term, but there is a risk of a weakening of external competitiveness.
Michael T. Hadjimichael and Mr. Michel Galy

institutional features, a number of questions arise concerning the likely impact on the CFA franc arrangements of the introduction of the euro and the establishment of new institutions within the EMU. As a minimum, the peg of the CFA franc would need to be shifted to the euro. Will this change require simply a decision by the CFA franc countries themselves together with France, or will it involve the other members of the EMU? Will the guaranteed convertibility of the CFA franc by France need to be modified? What would be the likely economic impact of the EMU on the real

Ms. Florence Jaumotte and Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon

Calculations 1/ The ratio of population age 65 and above to population age 30-64 With EMU and euro effects largely offsetting each other in NEA, the impact of the EMU-euro process and financial liberalization on current accounts were more moderate than for SEA, yielding a decline of about 1–2 percentage points. In Northern Europe, most of the increase in current accounts can be attributed to global factors that affected all countries at the same time (captured by time effects). The upward trend in their current accounts likely reflected the counterpart to the growing

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
International Monetary Fund

had brought monetary conditions close to their lowest level over the past two decades. Moreover—on the basis of estimated transmission lags—the impact of the EMU-related convergence in short-term interest rates, which had taken place relatively late in Italy, should continue to exert an expansionary effect in 2000 and possibly 2001. A steady acceleration in credit to the private sector, historically an important monetary transmission channel, has been underway since mid-1999. 12. The authorities nonetheless expressed some concern about the outlook for external

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx