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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

.3 5.9 5.3 Financial accounts balance and other flows 39.2 22.3 −13.9 −7.1 8.3 6.1 Government debt indicators 3/ External debt 54.4 50.8 48.1 47.2 48.1 48.9 (In percent of GDP) 54.0 48.0 37.7 39.3 34.3 32.4 Domestic debt 66.1 66.1 52.5 46.1 42.9 41.9 (In percent of GDP) 65.6 62.4 41.2 38.4 30.6 27.8 Exchange rates Australian dollar per U.S. dollar (period average) 0.97 0.98 1.09 1.20 1

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

38.4 19.9 −17.2 −11.4 2.4 0.8 (In percent of GDP) 38.1 18.8 −13.5 −9.5 1.7 0.5 Trade balance 33.8 4.6 −34.6 −51.6 −52.9 −61.5 Exports 67.4 58.2 50.7 25.0 34.4 32.0 Imports 33.6 53.6 85.3 76.5 87.3 93.5 Capital account balance 0.9 2.5 3.2 4.3 5.9 5.3 Financial accounts balance and other flows 39.2 22.3 −13.9 −7.1 8.3 6.1 Government debt indicators External debt 3/ 54.4 50.8 48

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Nauru’s growth and a substantial improvement in government revenue in recent years thanks to processing of asylum seekers by the Australian Regional Processing Center (RPC), fishing license fees, and residual phosphate mining. In the near term, GDP growth is projected to be moderate at 4 percent in fiscal year 2017 (ending June 30) mainly due to a slowdown in phosphate exports and limited expansion of the RPC. The medium-term outlook is vulnerable to scaling down of the RPC following the expected transfer of refugees to other countries, which will produce a substantial decline in RPC revenue.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

balance -22.2 2.8 18.4 -7.3 8.3 -7.1 -8.3 (In percent of GDP) -21.3 2.0 12.7 -4.6 5.0 -4.1 -4.7 Exports (goods) 24.9 47.8 25.3 15.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 Imports (goods) 82.3 76.7 70.0 81.1 83.8 84.6 84.7 RPC-related inflows 35.8 32.6 42.3 36.5 32.6 22.4 23.4 Capital account balance 4.6 17.0 12.4 8.4 5.0 7.2 6.8 Financial accounts balance and other flows -17.7 19.8 30.8 1.1 13.3 0.1 -1.4 Government debt indicators

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

This is the first Article IV Consultation since Nauru became the 189th Fund member in April 2016. Nauru's growth and government revenue have improved substantially in recent years owing to the Australian Regional Processing Center (RPC) to process asylum seekers, fishing license fees, and residual phosphate mining. However, Nauru faces daunting challenges in sustaining growth and ensuring fiscal sustainability due to its limited sources of growth and income. The country is also vulnerable to climate change, its antiquated infrastructure hampers trade and growth, and its health indicators are below those of peers due to high incidence of non-communicable diseases.

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

This is the first Article IV Consultation since Nauru became the 189th Fund member in April 2016. Nauru's growth and government revenue have improved substantially in recent years owing to the Australian Regional Processing Center (RPC) to process asylum seekers, fishing license fees, and residual phosphate mining. However, Nauru faces daunting challenges in sustaining growth and ensuring fiscal sustainability due to its limited sources of growth and income. The country is also vulnerable to climate change, its antiquated infrastructure hampers trade and growth, and its health indicators are below those of peers due to high incidence of non-communicable diseases.

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Participation Rates 9. Female Labor Force Participation Rates 10. Gender Gap in Guatemala TABLES 1. Potential Output Growth and Output Gap Estimates 2. Regression Results Using Microdata APPENDIX Multivariate Filter Methodology FISCAL POLICY: SUSTAINABILITY AND SOCIAL OBJECTIVES A. Fiscal Sustainability Assessment B. Poverty, Inequality and Fiscal Redistribution References BOX 1. General Structure of the Model FIGURES 1. Fiscal Indicators 2. General Government Debt Indicators 3. Long-Term Sustainability 4. Alternative

International Monetary Fund

. This conclusion applies also to the situation where the extreme shock hits on top of the scale up scenario. C. Scaling-up scenario 45. Under the scaling up of borrowing and public investment, the low risk of debt distress is preserved . The fiscal deficit during the 5 years of the scaling up is smaller than the debt-stabilizing deficit, causing the domestic debt to remain around the PSI target of 20 percent of GDP during the projection period ( Table 5 ). All the other total central government debt indicators remain within reasonable levels in the scaling up

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

by international standards. 4 Figure 2. General Government Debt Indicators * * In the case of Guatemala, it refers to Central Government. 3. Additional efforts to raise tax collections will be needed to ensure adequate provision of basic public goods . Guatemala’s low revenue capacity constrains the level of government spending, currently at 12 percent of GDP. However, literature finds that the optimal size of the government, in particular, with respect to human development, is at least 15 percent of GDP. 5 Hence, it would be desirable raising fiscal