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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

are mainly on the downside. For the union, weaker-than-expected global growth could curb tourism demand, slowing the much-needed tourism sector recovery. For Curaçao, the continuing crisis in Venezuela is the main risk, while in Sint Maarten, where exposure to hurricanes remains a major vulnerability, slower-than-expected progress on reconstruction poses further downside risk. Executive Board Assessment In concluding the 2018 Article IV consultation with the Kingdom of the Netherlands— Curaçao and Sint Maarten, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal

Mr. Alberto Behar and Jaime Espinosa-Bowen
This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.
Mr. Alberto Behar, Jaime Espinosa-Bowen, and Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.

International Monetary Fund

July 22, 2010 1. This note reports on information that has become available since the staff report (SM/10/189) was issued and does not alter the thrust of the staff appraisal . 2. Incoming data since the completion of the Article IV consultation in mid-June point to a continued but subpar recovery, with further downside risks to the staff’s forecast . First-quarter GDP growth was revised down by 0.5 percent (saar), mainly owing to weaker final demand. Recent data also indicate softening consumer confidence, dwindling tailwinds from the inventory cycle

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

further, falling by about 2 percent vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, stock prices rose by almost 2 percent, and short-term bond yields fell sharply (by about 30 basis points) while long-term yields edged down slightly. 3. Downside risks have risen in light of further oil price declines . Since the staff report was issued, oil price projections for 2015 have declined further by about 12 percent based on market futures. This poses further downside risks to staff’s growth and inflation forecasts for 2015, mainly through weaker investment in the energy sector. In this context

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

crisis: the output gap is now largely closed, the current account deficit has been reduced to sustainable levels, and unemployment continues to fall. However, the economy has recently slowed considerably in the face of a deteriorating external environment, weak investment, and persistently shrinking bank credit Challenges . Subdued economic growth is expected to continue in 2015 due to continued weakness in trade partners, particularly Russia. An escalation of geo-political tensions or protracted low growth in the Euro Area poses further downside risks. Rapid