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Mr. Erwin H Tiongson, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
Global food aid is considered a critical consumption smoothing mechanism in many countries. However, its record of stabilizing consumption has been mixed. This paper examines the cyclical properties of food aid with respect to food availability in recipient countries, with a view to assessing its impact on consumption in some 150 developing countries and transition economies, covering 1970 to 2000. The results show that global food aid has been allocated to countries most in need. Food aid has also been countercyclical within countries with the greatest need. However, for most countries, food aid is not countercyclical. The amount of food aid provided is also insufficient to mitigate contemporaneous shortfalls in consumption. The results are robust to various specifications and filtering techniques and have important implications for macroeconomic and fiscal management.
Mr. Erwin H Tiongson, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Mr. Sanjeev Gupta

Results: Food Aid Flows Over Time 7. Tobit Regression Results: Fiscal Variables 8. Tobit Regression Results: Food Aid Sales and Fiscal Variables, 1987–2000 Appendix Table 9. Countries and Areas Included in the Sample

Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Erwin R. Tiongson

( Clay and others (1996) , Barrett (2001) , Barrett and Heisey (2002) ), a single program perspective can be misleading when assessing a country’s food aid vis-à-vis country needs, as food aid is typically provided by a number of donors. Other studies, using broader measures of food aid, focus on selected regions. A more comprehensive evaluation would assess global food aid flows into all recipient countries. Aid inflows (including food aid) affect government revenues and economic activity. This is the case when aid flows through the budget and if part or all of

Mr. Erwin H Tiongson, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Mr. Sanjeev Gupta

). Wang , Jian-Ye , 1999 , “ The Georgian Hyperinflation and Stabilization ,” IMF Working Paper No. 99/65 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ). 10.5089/9781451848663.001 World Bank , 1998 , Assessing aid: what works, what doesn’t, and why ( New York : Oxford University Press ). World Food Programme , 2002 , 2001 Food Aid Flows ( Rome : World Food Programme ). World Health Organization , 2002 , World Health Report ( Geneva : WHO ). 1 We thank Abbassian Abdolreza, Rina Bhattacharya, Aleš Bulíř, Chris Barrett, Paul

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents an external stability assessment on Niger. Niger’s current account balance deteriorated in 2013, mostly on account of higher food and capital goods imports. The deficit is expected to widen further in 2014–15, mainly driven by large investment in the extractive industry and basic infrastructure. The current account is projected to gradually improve from 2016 as important projects in infrastructure will come to end, the oil and mining sectors come on stream and public and private savings increase. Although aid and foreign direct investments are the main sources of external financing, external borrowing–mainly on concessional terms–has increased significantly.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This is the final issue for 2006 (Volume 53), and contains another paper in the occasional Special Data Section that seeks to measure financial development in the Middle East and North Africa by utilizing a new database. The issue also contains a comment from Jacques J. Polak on parity reversion in real exchange rates.