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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

food aid and its cyclical pattern. In particular, the paper assessed the timing of global food aid disbursements and whether they suffered from the same unfortunate pattern identified in earlier research on individual programs—that is, a “procyclical” pattern. Such a pattern implies that food aid falls as the recipient country’s food production contracts, which means that less is available exactly when it is most needed. More desirable would be a countercyclical distribution of food aid, which means that food aid increases at the same time food production falls in

Mr. Erwin H Tiongson, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
Global food aid is considered a critical consumption smoothing mechanism in many countries. However, its record of stabilizing consumption has been mixed. This paper examines the cyclical properties of food aid with respect to food availability in recipient countries, with a view to assessing its impact on consumption in some 150 developing countries and transition economies, covering 1970 to 2000. The results show that global food aid has been allocated to countries most in need. Food aid has also been countercyclical within countries with the greatest need. However, for most countries, food aid is not countercyclical. The amount of food aid provided is also insufficient to mitigate contemporaneous shortfalls in consumption. The results are robust to various specifications and filtering techniques and have important implications for macroeconomic and fiscal management.
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, and Erwin R. Tiongson

fluctuations in food availability. In fact, there is evidence that food aid disbursements have been procyclical rather than countercyclical. Accounting for bias arising from the absence of lagged food aid and the endogeneity of commercial food imports, as noted above, lagged food aid and domestic production (PROD) (to proxy nonconcessional food availability (NA)) are added to the baseline regressions, following equations (4a) and (4b) . The regression results in Table 4 confirm that for the sample as a whole, global food aid is generally progressive and responds to

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
With the findings of a recent IMF staff study serving as a starting point, a panel of IMF staff and distinguished outside researchers on May 27 debated financial globalization’s benefits and risks. Panelists were Eswar Prasad (IMF Asia and Pacific Department), Shang-Jin Wei (IMF Research Department)—two of the study’s authors—and C. Fred Bergsten (Director, Institute for International Economics (IIE)), Jeffrey Frankel (Professor, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University), and Daniel Tarullo (Professor, Georgetown University Law Center). Kenneth Rogoff (IMF Economic Counsellor and Director ofthe Research Department), also an author of the study, moderated. Participants suggested ways to contain the downsides of globalization; two of their recommendations—developing domestic financial sectors and strengthening institutions prior to liberalization—drew wide support.
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in Guinea–Bissau during the 1990s. Following mixed economic performance in 1991–92, a period of financial stabilization in 1993–94 led to an economic program that was supported by a three-year annual arrangement under the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility approved in January 1995. After some difficulties in early 1995, the program objectives for budgetary revenue, the external account, and real growth rate were surpassed. Economic developments were generally favorable in 1996 and 1997 although inflation continued to be a source of concern until mid-1997.