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Ms. Naheed Kirmani, Mr. Lorenzo L. Pérez, Mr. Shailendra J. Anjaria, and Mr. Zubair Iqbal

has been limited, and recently the scope for growth of exports under some GSP schemes has been narrowed. In this context, the implications of recent trade policy developments for developing countries’ future investment and export possibilities are particularly worrisome. With relatively small economies, possible gains from the economies of scale that could be derived from access to foreign markets can make a critical difference between an acceptable or a sluggish rate of economic growth. Thus, greater economic integration of developing countries with the world

Edward V.K. Jaycox

have seen these flows stagnate and decline in recent years. Secondly, the burden of debt and debt service has generated a very substantial reflow of capital to the developed world. We now estimate that on a net basis the capital flows to Africa in the period 1985–89 will be less than one half the net flows to Africa during the period 1980–84. We do not foresee any dramatic improvement in terms of trade or export possibilities that can offset this reduction in net capital flows. If Africa is to return to the growth path, if Africa is to successfully survive the

payments adjustment. Conditions in the 1980s The SAF was established in the context of very difficult economic conditions facing the low-income countries. Many had experienced a significant deterioration in their external positions and growth prospects in the late 1970s and early 1980s, brought on by diminishing net capital inflows following the onset of the debt crisis, a progressive worsening in their terms of trade, and the slowdown in growth in the industrial countries which affected their export possibilities. The deterioration was exacerbated in many coun- tries by

Michael W. Bell and Robert L. Sheehy

external positions and growth prospects in the late 1970s and early 1980s, brought on by diminishing net capital inflows following the onset of the debt crisis, a progressive worsening in their terms of trade, and the slowdown in growth in the industrial countries which affected their export possibilities. The deterioration was exacerbated in many countries by inadequate domestic economic policies. In responding to these difficult circumstances, a number of countries undertook adjustment measures that reduced their external current account deficits, but even so, many of

Luc De Wulf and Garry Pursell

they alter his export possibilities, and policymakers, aware of the cost of their policy, will be less likely to continue them beyond the point where they cease to fulfill their objective. Indirect export subsidies lack these important advantages. However, although involving a loss of government revenue, and having similar budgetary implications, they may be more attractive politically, precisely because the budgetary cost is less apparent, and because they may be less likely to attract countervailing duties by importing countries. The export promotion policies of

Jack Baranson

. This is particularly true where low wages prevail and where production programs permit the import of materials and components that cannot be produced competitively in the local economy. It is also necessary that foreign technical and managerial personnel be allowed into the country until indigenous manpower becomes sufficiently experienced to take over. In the automotive field, export possibilities might include the following categories, of which specific examples are cited below: (a) the manufacture of specialized components and parts, (b) responsibility for a

Helen Hughes

-hitting industrialization strategies—including not only a markedly outward orientation but also other fiscal, monetary, and labor policies leading to competitive cost structures—have experienced higher and more consistent rates of growth of manufacturing employment than those that have relied on import substitution at all costs, stressed basic industries, and failed to take advantage of export possibilities. The choice that a country has in attempting to stimulate manufacturing employment is not one of choosing between a labor-intensive or capital-intensive technique for a given product

Mr. Zubair Iqbal

giving rise to a new line of exports from the preference-receiving country. The advantage of preferences accruing to less developed countries for the export of manufactured products can be assessed in terms of the resulting expansion in export possibilities for these countries, that is, the trade effects of preferences. This study seeks to provide an assessment of the global trade effects of all the schemes, taken individually as well as collectively, by estimating the trade creation (that is, the increase in world trade) and the trade diversion (that is, the decline

MOSTAFA K. TOLBA

distribution of industry, the competitive position of different groups of countries, their comparative costs of production, etc. Some environmental actions by developed countries are likely to have negative effects on developing countries’ export possibilities and their terms of trade. —Founex Report (1971) Environment and International Relations If the multiple bonds that characterize interdependence are convincingly present in any field, it is in that encompassing development and the environment, but the transition is not occurring smoothly and harmoniously

Henri Ghesquiere

definition, comprising specific public programs aimed at facilitating technology transfers, vocational training and retraining, and diffusing knowledge about technologies and export possibilities via sectoral “technical centers” is being financed through a combination of own resources of the enterprises, foreign grants, and budgetary expenditures. A program granting subsidies of 10 to 20 percent of the cost of investment projects aimed at technological upgrading, for a total of 1 percent of GDP, is being implemented. 22. To help mitigate the fiscal revenue and