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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

External Rebalancing in the Euro Area: Developments and Policies 1 Since the crisis, the euro area current account has moved from rough balance into a clear surplus. The rebalancing underlying this shift has been highly asymmetric, with some debtor economies (Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Portugal, and Spain) seeing large improvements in their current accounts (sometimes into surplus), while many creditor economies (Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands) have largely maintained their surpluses. In this context, the

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

and Pakistan); and sub-Saharan Africa. Emerging market and developing economies are also classified according to analytical criteria that reflect the composition of export earnings and a distinction between net creditor and net debtor economies. Tables D and E show the detailed composition of emerging market and developing economies in the regional and analytical groups. The analytical criterion source of export earnings distinguishes between the categories fuel (Standard International Trade Classification [SITC] 3) and nonfuel and then focuses on

Mr. Luca A Ricci, Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, Mr. Jaewoo Lee, Mr. Alessandro Prati, and Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti

only a few assumptions about the economy’s potential growth rate, inflation rate, and rates of return on external assets and liabilities. This simple and transparent structure makes it a natural reference point against which to compare more sophisticated econometric approaches. The implications of the ES approach are straightforward. Debtor economies that grow faster can afford to run larger current account deficits and smaller trade balances without increasing their ratio of external liabilities to GDP. Also, high rates of return on external assets and liabilities

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

External Financing Source 3 Net Debtor Economies 121 48.1 23.5 39.0 14.7 60.5 51.4 Of Which, Official Financing 29 2.2 1.1 1.5 0.6 8.6 7.3 Net Debtor Economies by Debt-Servicing Experience 3 Economies with Arrears and/or Rescheduling during 2006–10 40 4.9 2.4 4.2 1.6 9.4 8.0 Other Net Debtor Economies 81 43.2 21.2 34.8 13.1 51.1 43.4 Other Groups Heavily Indebted Poor Countries 38 2.4 1.2 1

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.