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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

with those that would have occurred in the absence of the program—the counterfactual. However, by definition, the counterfactual policy stance, and the resulting macroeconomic outcome, are never observed. Consequently, researchers have focused on the creation of artificial policy counterfactuals. The generalized evaluation estimator (GEE), pioneered by Goldstein and Montiel (1986) and Khan (1990) , is a popular method of constructing these counterfactuals. This approach constructs counterfactual policy stances by using nonprogram data to link annual changes in

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.