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International Monetary Fund

given the potential environmental costs this could generate. 118. Since 2001, ginned cotton is sold to the local textile industry at world prices . Cotton imports are banned in Syria, which implies that domestic manufacturers in the textile sector have to purchase cotton exclusively from the CMO. Before 2001, the CMO’s prices were set by the Ministry of Industry above world prices, but since then prices are set directly by the CMO (under the supervision of the government) consistent with world levels ( Table 3 ). (Syria is a price taker in the world market

Mr. Stephen Tokarick

the international price, and therefore the export earnings of countries that rely on cotton exports. Tariffs in OECD countries on cotton imports would also have the same depressing effect on world prices, but they are low and the subsidies have larger quantitative effects. Empirical work shows that removal of all cotton subsidies in OECD countries would adversely affect developing countries as a group, but benefit a subset of very poor countries . Since removal of cotton subsidies would raise the world price, cotton-exporting countries would gain, and the main

Mr. Stephen Tokarick
The current round of multilateral trade negotiations-the Doha Round-presents an opportunity for countries to reap the benefits of trade liberalization. Unfortunately, a number of misconceptions about the likely impact of trade reforms has, in part, impeded more rapid progress toward completion of the Round. This paper addresses some of the most egregious of these misconceptions and presents results from IMF research that sheds light on these issues. In particular, this paper argues that: (i) developing countries have much to gain from their own trade liberalization; (ii) preference erosion could be significant for some countries, but it is not a justification for postponing tariff reductions; (iii) tariffs applied against agricultural products in rich countries actually harm developing countries more than subsidies; and (iv) a disproportionate share of agricultural subsidies in rich countries goes to large wealthy farmers.
International Monetary Fund

countries, see ILO (2000). 45 This points to the importance of supply-side conditions, in addition to market barriers, in understanding export success. 46 The Short-Term Arrangement, involving the United States and other cotton importing and exporting countries, prohibited voluntary restraints. 47 Some research suggests that quota rents are shared by developing and developed countries. It is argued that large corporate buyers from developed countries often capture at least part of the quota rents (Krishna and others, 1994). 48 In fact, the upper

International Monetary Fund

importers. In particular, cotton exporters achieve gains since barriers to cotton imports are low in the non-Quad economies. Field crop exports increase sizably, especially for Asian rice producers, who can export to a relatively more open Japanese market. Lower barriers to sugar imports, especially from the EU, would increase exports significantly from the Western Hemisphere and Sub-Saharan Africa. U.S. and EU exports of field crops (U.S. exports of cotton) would fall off significantly. The EU would experience a significant (near ¼ percentage point of GDP) increase in

Ms. Victoria J Perry, Ms. Katherine Baer, and Mr. Emil M Sunley

of about $241 million on net exports of finished goods; (iv) gain of $124 million on raw materials; and (v) loss of about $20 million on coal and other fuels. Of these, virtually all the net raw material gain is explained by Uzbek cotton imports, and half of the net loss on energy exports would have been with respect to Kazakstan. The overwhelmingly main revenue shift on trade among the other CIS countries, excluding Russia, would have been a loss of over $300 million to Turkmenistan, presumably largely on its 1993 energy exports (although the sectoral breakdown

Ms. Inutu Lukonga and Reinold H. van Til

exports, and the growth of cotton imports from US$25,700 in 1970 to US$45 million in 1984. 1/ Similarly, increasing domestic demand for derivatives of oilseeds resulted in the elimination of groundnut and groundnut oil exports; a decline in the export-to-output ratio of palm kernels from 62 percent in 1970 to 10 percent by 1990; a colossal increase in imports of oilseeds, nuts, and kernels; and the increase in imports of complementary products, including soya bean oil and other vegetable oils. Imports of oilseeds, nuts and kernels increased from almost nothing in 1970

International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
Syria faces two interrelated medium-term challenges posed by the prospective decline in its oil reserves. The recently approved five-year plan (FYP) laid down a comprehensive strategy to address these challenges. Syria’s public finances are headed for challenging times in the coming 10–15 years. Large fiscal deficits have marked the economic history of many developed and developing countries alike during the 1970s and 1980s, with damaging consequences to their economies. Although financial markets can help keep the deficit bias in check, market discipline has proved mostly inadequate.