European firms are facing an unprecedented shock, but the policy response has also been unprecedented. This chapter seeks to quantify the potential impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis on corporateliquidity and solvency risks in Europe and examine the extent to which policy measures—as designed—could dampen these risks in 2020. Using detailed balance sheet and income statement data for millions of European companies, the chapter finds that job-retention programs, debt moratoria, grants, and loan guarantees could be effective in addressing
Mr. Christian H Ebeke, Nemanja Jovanovic, Ms. Laura Valderrama, and Jing Zhou
The spread of COVID-19, containment measures, and general uncertainty led to a sharp reduction in activity in the first half of 2020. Europe was hit particularly hard—the economic contraction in 2020 is estimated to have been among the largest in the world—with potentially severe repercussions on its nonfinancial corporations. A wave of corporate bankruptcies would generate mass unemployment, and a loss of productive capacity and firm-specific human capital. With many SMEs in Europe relying primarily on the banking sector for external finance, stress in the corporate sector could easily translate into pressures in the banking system (Aiyar et al., forthcoming).