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International Monetary Fund

single basket of 34 non-fuel primary commodities and do not reflect differences in the composition of the basket of primary commodities exported or imported by different countries. See Appendix I of International Monetary Fund, Primary Commodities: Market Developments and Outlook , World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington, May 1986), for a description of this index. 1 Non-fuel commodity prices deflated by the export unit value index for manufactures of the industrial countries as calculated by the Current Studies Division, IMF Research Department

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

September 2006, Box 5.2 Recent Developments in Commodity Markets September 2006, Appendix 2.1 Who Is Harmed by the Surge in Food Prices? October 2007, Box 1.1 Refinery Bottlenecks October 2007, Box 1.5 Making the Most of Biofuels October 2007, Box 1.6 Commodity Market Developments and Prospects April 2008, Appendix 1.2 Dollar Depreciation and Commodity Prices April 2008, Box 1.4 Why Hasn’t Oil Supply Responded to Higher Prices? April 2008, Box 1.5 Oil Price Benchmarks April 2008, Box 1

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

discusses how such factors can lead to political instability ( Alesina and Perotti 1996 ) and civil conflicts (surveyed by Blattman and Miguel 2010 ). Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts Despite heightened volatility, the IMF’s primary commodity price index remained broadly stable between February and August 2020, the respective reference periods for the April 2020 and October 2020 WEOs ( Figure 1.SF.1 , panel 1). This reflects two distinct phases: between February and April the index fell by 24 percent as the COVID-19 pandemic

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.


The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.